GOLD WEEKLY PLAN | 48XX–49XX MAY SET GOLD'S TREND

May 9

Last week clearly reflected a “recovery under uncertainty” phase for gold. Despite continuous support from economic news and expectations of a softer FED stance, gold still failed to build a strong enough bullish structure to shift the long-term macro view. Most of the recent upside came from short-term reaction flows driven by news rather than a strong return of long-term safe-haven capital as seen in previous phases.

My broader macro perspective remains unchanged: the market is gradually entering a phase of weakening liquidity and fading speculative momentum. As investors become more accustomed to recession headlines and macro fears, the “fear-buy” effect supporting gold also starts to weaken. This suggests that while gold may continue recovering in the short term, the larger structure still favors distribution and potential moves back toward lower price zones.

This week, the main focus will be on US CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data. These releases could heavily influence expectations regarding future FED policy. If inflation remains elevated or retail sales data surprises positively, the USD could regain strength and pressure gold after the recent recovery rally. On the other hand, weaker economic data may continue supporting gold in the short term as markets price in a softer FED outlook.

From a technical structure perspective, gold is still moving within a short-term recovery channel after forming a CHoCH from the lower support zone. Price continues to respect the support + Fibonacci regions below while gradually approaching the major liquidity zone around 48xx–49xx. This remains the key area of the entire structure, where demand, Fibonacci levels, and the larger descending trendline converge.

MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues maintaining its short-term recovery structure, gradually moving toward the 48xx–49xx zone. If economic data weakens further and USD pressure continues fading, gold could perform additional liquidity sweeps into the upper demand zones before the market decides the next major directional move.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If CPI/PPI data comes in stronger than expected or markets return to pricing a “higher for longer” FED narrative, gold could face strong rejection around the 48xx–49xx area and rotate back toward lower support + Fibonacci zones. This remains the preferred observation area for longer-term sell opportunities based on the current macro perspective.

Overall, gold remains inside a technical recovery phase, but the 48xx–49xx region will likely determine whether the market can sustain a broader recovery or return to the longer-term bearish pressure driven by the larger macroeconomic slowdown narrative.

LucasGrayTrading

May 11

Note

Gold opens the week with a bearish gap, closing below the H4 ascending trendline and confirming short-term weakness after the recent recovery phase.

This move suggests bullish momentum is fading while the market starts rotating back into a broader sell structure. Current bias remains focused on waiting for recovery moves into upper demand zones for potential sell continuation setups.

Main focus today:
• Watch reactions around lower support + Fibonacci zones
• Any weak rebound back into demand areas could become opportunities to follow the broader bearish bias
• CPI week volatility ahead could expand momentum significantly once liquidity builds further

May 12

Trade active

WEEKLY PLAN 11/05–15/05 ACTIVE
Gold followed the bias of the weekly plan, surging from the demand zone + 0.5 Fibonacci retracement to the 477x area at the beginning of the week. However, after three consecutive attempts to approach the upper demand zone but failing to maintain the upward momentum, the market began to confirm a short-term weakening state and a downward reversal occurred as expected.
Tonight's CPI session became the main catalyst for the breakdown, as the data continued to put pressure on expectations that the Fed would maintain its high policy for longer. Gold experienced a sharp drop of nearly 1300 pips from the 477x area to around 464x in a short period of time.
Notably, although gold was previously within a short-term upward recovery range, the actual money flow showed a clear lack of strength in the demand zone + Fibonacci retracement above. This further reinforces the view that the current rallies are mainly technical recoverys rather than a sustainable buying trend by large capital flows. Currently, gold is returning to the important support and Fibonacci zone around 464x–458x. This will be the area to observe the next price reaction. If the rebound is weak and retests fail, gold is highly likely to continue its downward trend towards lower support levels in the coming sessions.

Overall, the weekly plan is still following the structure mentioned: a short-term recovery to the liquidity zone above before returning to selling pressure from the larger macroeconomic picture.

May 15

Trade closed: target reached

The 11/05–15/05 weekly plan continued to follow the bearish bias perfectly. After reaching the key demand + 0.5 fibo zone around 4760, gold failed to maintain its recovery structure and quickly shifted into strong distribution pressure. From this major sell area, price extended more than 2000 pips lower toward the 455x region within only a few trading sessions.

One important observation is that the previous bullish movement was merely a technical recovery inside a much larger bearish structure. Once the market lost the ability to hold above upper demand zones, capital quickly rotated back into the USD, creating strong downside pressure on gold following the latest economic data releases.

Gold is now approaching a critical confluence zone consisting of major support + fibo + higher timeframe ascending trendline support below. This area represents a key liquidity zone for the entire current structure, combining both technical and psychological market significance after the aggressive selloff.

The next scenario now depends heavily on price reaction around the 455x area. If gold manages to hold this support and shows signs of absorbing selling pressure, the market could enter a short-term technical recovery phase after the sharp decline. However, if the major ascending trendline breaks completely, gold may extend into a deeper distribution move as market flows continue favoring the USD and pricing in a prolonged higher-rate environment.

Overall, the weekly plan played out exactly according to the primary bearish bias, with the sell move from 4760 down toward 455x now completed. The market is currently entering a major decision zone for the next medium-term gold structure.