Gold remains trapped between two opposing macro narratives.
On one side, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone regarding future policy easing. This effectively confirmed that the recent decline was not simply a short-term correction but part of a broader repricing process as markets adjust to a higher-for-longer rate environment.
On the other side, optimism surrounding peace negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions has sparked a strong technical rebound from last week's panic low. The recovery above the broken descending trendline attracted short-covering flows and helped gold reclaim part of the previous selloff.
However, from a market-structure perspective, the rebound has not changed the bigger picture yet.
Price is currently testing a key Demand + Fibonacci resistance zone around 432x–434x, while the broader daily structure remains bearish. More importantly, the rally appears driven primarily by sentiment and positioning rather than a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations.
This is why the current recovery should still be viewed as a corrective move until buyers can reclaim higher liquidity zones.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the market continues to digest the Fed's message and upcoming economic data fails to support aggressive rate-cut expectations, gold may struggle to sustain gains above the current resistance cluster.
In this scenario, the 432x–434x Demand + Fibonacci zone could act as a distribution area, opening the door for another rotation lower toward the 423x–425x Supply zone, where liquidity remains unfinished.
As long as price remains below the major resistance structure, sellers retain the broader advantage.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If geopolitical developments continue to support safe-haven demand or markets begin pricing a more dovish Fed outlook, gold could extend its recovery.
A decisive break above 434x would expose the next liquidity pool around 437x–445x, where larger timeframe resistance and resting liquidity converge.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish corrective recovery above the broken trendline.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish while price remains below the 432x–445x resistance cluster and the market continues to operate within a broader post-FOMC bearish structure.
LucasGrayTrading 📊🔥
On one side, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone regarding future policy easing. This effectively confirmed that the recent decline was not simply a short-term correction but part of a broader repricing process as markets adjust to a higher-for-longer rate environment.
On the other side, optimism surrounding peace negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions has sparked a strong technical rebound from last week's panic low. The recovery above the broken descending trendline attracted short-covering flows and helped gold reclaim part of the previous selloff.
However, from a market-structure perspective, the rebound has not changed the bigger picture yet.
Price is currently testing a key Demand + Fibonacci resistance zone around 432x–434x, while the broader daily structure remains bearish. More importantly, the rally appears driven primarily by sentiment and positioning rather than a meaningful shift in monetary policy expectations.
This is why the current recovery should still be viewed as a corrective move until buyers can reclaim higher liquidity zones.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If the market continues to digest the Fed's message and upcoming economic data fails to support aggressive rate-cut expectations, gold may struggle to sustain gains above the current resistance cluster.
In this scenario, the 432x–434x Demand + Fibonacci zone could act as a distribution area, opening the door for another rotation lower toward the 423x–425x Supply zone, where liquidity remains unfinished.
As long as price remains below the major resistance structure, sellers retain the broader advantage.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If geopolitical developments continue to support safe-haven demand or markets begin pricing a more dovish Fed outlook, gold could extend its recovery.
A decisive break above 434x would expose the next liquidity pool around 437x–445x, where larger timeframe resistance and resting liquidity converge.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish corrective recovery above the broken trendline.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish while price remains below the 432x–445x resistance cluster and the market continues to operate within a broader post-FOMC bearish structure.
LucasGrayTrading 📊🔥
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.