After a volatile week, Gold enters a period of consolidation as markets wait for fresh macroeconomic catalysts. Although the U.S. Dollar has also lost some momentum following easing geopolitical tensions and the market's pricing of the Fed's current stance, Gold has been unable to attract meaningful buying interest. This suggests that institutional capital remains cautious, with investors choosing to stay on the sidelines rather than aggressively allocating into either the Dollar or Gold.
This week's focus shifts to the U.S. labor market, with JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment, ISM Services PMI, and most importantly Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). These releases will be critical in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Strong labor data would likely support Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, increasing downside pressure on Gold. Conversely, only a clear deterioration in employment data is likely to encourage safe-haven demand and support a stronger recovery in Gold.
From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, Gold continues to trade below the primary descending trendline. Price has repeatedly been rejected from the confluence of the previous Demand zone, the descending trendline, and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement around 4095–4100. Current rebounds remain corrective, with no confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) to signal a trend reversal. Until institutional buying returns, the broader outlook continues to favor another test of lower support levels.
Primary Scenario
As long as Gold remains below 4095–4100, sellers are expected to maintain control. A rejection from this resistance could push price back toward the 4040–4020 support zone. A decisive break below this area would expose the next downside target around 3995–4000, a key liquidity zone on the H4 chart.
Alternative Scenario
If U.S. economic data disappoints and Gold successfully breaks above 4100 with strong buying confirmation, the recovery could extend toward 4120–4140. However, this remains a major resistance area within the broader bearish trend, where renewed selling pressure is expected.
Market View
Current Bias: Bearish (Medium-Term)
Institutional capital remains cautious, and the market is still waiting for a fresh catalyst. Until clearer macro signals emerge, the preferred approach is to trade short-term in line with the prevailing trend, rather than committing to aggressive swing positions. LucasGrayTrading will continue monitoring macro developments and institutional flows, providing updates as soon as new catalysts begin to reshape Gold's broader direction.
LucasGrayTrading
This week's focus shifts to the U.S. labor market, with JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment, ISM Services PMI, and most importantly Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). These releases will be critical in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Strong labor data would likely support Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar, increasing downside pressure on Gold. Conversely, only a clear deterioration in employment data is likely to encourage safe-haven demand and support a stronger recovery in Gold.
From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, Gold continues to trade below the primary descending trendline. Price has repeatedly been rejected from the confluence of the previous Demand zone, the descending trendline, and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement around 4095–4100. Current rebounds remain corrective, with no confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) to signal a trend reversal. Until institutional buying returns, the broader outlook continues to favor another test of lower support levels.
Primary Scenario
As long as Gold remains below 4095–4100, sellers are expected to maintain control. A rejection from this resistance could push price back toward the 4040–4020 support zone. A decisive break below this area would expose the next downside target around 3995–4000, a key liquidity zone on the H4 chart.
Alternative Scenario
If U.S. economic data disappoints and Gold successfully breaks above 4100 with strong buying confirmation, the recovery could extend toward 4120–4140. However, this remains a major resistance area within the broader bearish trend, where renewed selling pressure is expected.
Market View
Current Bias: Bearish (Medium-Term)
Institutional capital remains cautious, and the market is still waiting for a fresh catalyst. Until clearer macro signals emerge, the preferred approach is to trade short-term in line with the prevailing trend, rather than committing to aggressive swing positions. LucasGrayTrading will continue monitoring macro developments and institutional flows, providing updates as soon as new catalysts begin to reshape Gold's broader direction.
LucasGrayTrading
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.