XAUUSD – Gold Holds Strength, But 4,475 Is The Final Test
Gold is starting the new week with strong bullish momentum.
After the breakout from the lower accumulation range, price pushed aggressively through previous liquidity and is now trading around 4,348. The move is clean, strong, and supported by a clear bullish structure on the H2 chart.
However, gold is now approaching a major supply and liquidity area. This means buyers still have control, but the next resistance zones may create stronger reactions.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains supported by weaker rate-hike pressure, softer USD sentiment, and continued demand for safe-haven assets.
When expectations for aggressive Fed tightening cool down, gold usually benefits because the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes lower. At the same time, geopolitical risk and central bank demand can continue to support the broader bullish view.
Still, after such a strong rally, short-term profit-taking may appear near major liquidity and supply zones. That is why the reaction around 4,423 and 4,475 will be important.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a strong bullish displacement after breaking above previous buyside liquidity zones.
The breakout and retest around 4,200 confirmed that buyers were in control. After that, price continued higher and formed another FVG during the bullish expansion. This shows strong demand and clean continuation.
The nearest important zone is the Final Liquidity / Major Supply area around 4,370 – 4,390. If gold can break and hold above this area, the next upside target is 4,423.
Above 4,423, the final extension target is around 4,475. This is the area where I would watch carefully for either continuation strength or a possible deeper pullback.
If price fails to hold above the major supply area, gold may correct back toward the breakout retest support near 4,200.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,348
Major supply zone: 4,370 – 4,390
Upper liquidity target: 4,423
Final extension target: 4,475
Breakout retest support: 4,200 – 4,220
Short-term FVG support: 4,260 – 4,275
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,200
Invalidation for bullish continuation: Below 4,200
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Continuation View
Buy Zone: 4,260 – 4,275
Entry: Bullish reaction, FVG retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,370 – 4,390
TP2: 4,423
TP3: 4,475
Breakout Buy Scenario
Condition: Gold breaks and holds above 4,390
Entry: Retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,423 first, then 4,475 if momentum continues
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Major Supply
Sell Zone: 4,370 – 4,390 or 4,423 – 4,475
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,300
TP2: 4,260
TP3: 4,200
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,475, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is clearly bullish right now.
The breakout from the lower range was strong, and buyers have already taken control of the short-term structure. However, price is now approaching a major supply and liquidity zone, so I do not want to chase blindly at the top.
The cleaner plan is to watch how gold reacts around 4,370 – 4,390. If buyers break through this zone, the path toward 4,423 and 4,475 remains open.
If rejection appears, a pullback toward the FVG or breakout retest support would be healthier before the next move.
For now, buyers still have the advantage — but 4,475 will be the final test for this bullish wave.
Do you think gold can push through 4,423 and reach 4,475, or will sellers defend the major supply zone first?
Gold is starting the new week with strong bullish momentum.
After the breakout from the lower accumulation range, price pushed aggressively through previous liquidity and is now trading around 4,348. The move is clean, strong, and supported by a clear bullish structure on the H2 chart.
However, gold is now approaching a major supply and liquidity area. This means buyers still have control, but the next resistance zones may create stronger reactions.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold remains supported by weaker rate-hike pressure, softer USD sentiment, and continued demand for safe-haven assets.
When expectations for aggressive Fed tightening cool down, gold usually benefits because the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes lower. At the same time, geopolitical risk and central bank demand can continue to support the broader bullish view.
Still, after such a strong rally, short-term profit-taking may appear near major liquidity and supply zones. That is why the reaction around 4,423 and 4,475 will be important.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a strong bullish displacement after breaking above previous buyside liquidity zones.
The breakout and retest around 4,200 confirmed that buyers were in control. After that, price continued higher and formed another FVG during the bullish expansion. This shows strong demand and clean continuation.
The nearest important zone is the Final Liquidity / Major Supply area around 4,370 – 4,390. If gold can break and hold above this area, the next upside target is 4,423.
Above 4,423, the final extension target is around 4,475. This is the area where I would watch carefully for either continuation strength or a possible deeper pullback.
If price fails to hold above the major supply area, gold may correct back toward the breakout retest support near 4,200.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,348
Major supply zone: 4,370 – 4,390
Upper liquidity target: 4,423
Final extension target: 4,475
Breakout retest support: 4,200 – 4,220
Short-term FVG support: 4,260 – 4,275
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,200
Invalidation for bullish continuation: Below 4,200
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Continuation View
Buy Zone: 4,260 – 4,275
Entry: Bullish reaction, FVG retest, liquidity sweep, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,370 – 4,390
TP2: 4,423
TP3: 4,475
Breakout Buy Scenario
Condition: Gold breaks and holds above 4,390
Entry: Retest and bullish confirmation
Target: 4,423 first, then 4,475 if momentum continues
Sell Scenario – Reaction From Major Supply
Sell Zone: 4,370 – 4,390 or 4,423 – 4,475
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower-timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,300
TP2: 4,260
TP3: 4,200
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,475, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is clearly bullish right now.
The breakout from the lower range was strong, and buyers have already taken control of the short-term structure. However, price is now approaching a major supply and liquidity zone, so I do not want to chase blindly at the top.
The cleaner plan is to watch how gold reacts around 4,370 – 4,390. If buyers break through this zone, the path toward 4,423 and 4,475 remains open.
If rejection appears, a pullback toward the FVG or breakout retest support would be healthier before the next move.
For now, buyers still have the advantage — but 4,475 will be the final test for this bullish wave.
Do you think gold can push through 4,423 and reach 4,475, or will sellers defend the major supply zone first?
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.