GoldMasterClub

GOLD TREND IS BEARISH

GoldMasterClub Updated   
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

From a technical perspective, the daily structure of gold showed a high-rise and then a fall, closing with a medium-yin line, but the short-selling trend failed to continue in this morning's trading, indicating that the market attitude has not yet completely leaned towards the short side. The current gold price is running near the short-term 5-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands are generally biased downward. Although there is still a possibility of upward movement during the day, the shape has laid the foundation for the short side. Other periodic indicators remain in a long position, coupled with the upward movement of the MACD golden cross, and the three lines of the KDJ indicator are glued together. The daily structure still needs to pay attention to the rebound strength above 2350.

On the 4-hour chart, the gold price rebounded to around 2360 after a high retreat to test 2350. The short-term 20-day and 10-day moving averages are in a downward pattern, forming short-term resistance at 2367 and 2378 respectively. Other periodic indicators turned to a short position, the Bollinger Bands tended to move downward, the MACD had a dead cross again, and the KDJ indicator dead cross showed signs of turning upward. The overall short position in the 4-hour structure was dominant, which increased the probability of a fall.

It is recommended to continue to maintain the high-altitude and low-multiple strategy for intraday short-term operations of gold. The upper pressure should focus on the 2375-2378 area first. If it fails to break through, it can be seen in the 2350 area or even lower. If the bulls break through 2378, they will focus on the 2388-2390 area, which is the strongest defensive point for the shorts. Below this area, firmly bearish, the probability of the bears continuing after the breakthrough increases.

The lower support focuses on the 2350-2347 area, which is the starting point for the return of the non-agricultural data to the 2400 mark last week, and has a strong support effect. However, as the suppression moves down again, the gold price will be taken down by the bears when it approaches or touches this area. The premise is that the 2350-2347 area must be broken first, otherwise the support at this position is considered valid, and the gold price will fluctuate widely above this area. If the bears break below the 2347-2350 area, it means that the gold price will fall into weakness again, and the probability of the bears breaking the range will increase. Before the gold price breaks through the 2400 mark, the overall direction is still bearish. Whether it can be achieved depends on the performance of CPI data this week.

On the whole, today's short-term gold operation advice is to mainly go short on rebounds, supplemented by longs on callbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 2375-2380 resistance range, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 2350-2345 support range.
Comment:
The market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut are gradually heating up. It is expected that bargain hunting will support gold prices, and gold prices still have a chance to test the resistance near $2,400 in the future. Investors will focus on Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony, a series of speeches by Fed officials, and US inflation data released on Thursday this week.

The US dollar rebounded 0.13% from its low in more than three weeks to close at 105.02. The unexpected result of the French election provided the US dollar with an opportunity to rebound, but it was still weak overall. The suspension of the People's Bank of China's gold reserve increase for two consecutive months in June was one of the factors that prompted the gold price to pull back. Friday's US employment data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders believe there could be two rate cuts this year, with a 76% chance of the Fed's first rate cut at its September meeting and another rate cut expected in December.

The main U.S. economic data this week is Thursday's June consumer price data. Powell is expected to take a relatively dovish tone based on recent data, and his speech last week said the U.S. economy is back on track with slowing inflation. U.S. President Biden is under pressure to withdraw from the re-election campaign, and developments surrounding the U.S. election may continue to affect the U.S. Treasury market. In addition, investors still need to pay attention to the supporting role of geopolitical tensions in gold prices.
Comment:
Gold surged and fell back during the US trading session, forming a head and shoulders top structure at a high level, indicating that the bearish trend has restarted. The current upward momentum of gold has begun to weaken, and bulls are suppressed. The first bottoming low of 2368-2370 has now turned into a resistance level.

From the daily chart, the stochastic indicator and MACD indicator in the daily K-line have temporarily entered a passivation state, and the price has returned to the range. Although it has broken slightly, the continuity is poor and cannot represent that the trend will continue strongly.

In the 4-hour chart, the stochastic indicator crosses downward and runs in a bearish direction; the MACD indicator also crosses downward and runs in a bearish direction, and the shape needs to rebound upward. The current central axis position is near 2365, the lower rail support level is near 2340, and the upper rail pressure level is near 2390.

The 1-hour chart shows that the oversold rebound stopped at around 2350, and the previous rising starting point formed support. The stochastic indicator crosses upward, the main multi-upward movement, and the pressure position changes to around 2370

Currently, the focus on the upper side is the 2370-2375 resistance range, and the focus on the lower side is the 2345-2340 support range
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.