Gold poised for movement before FOMC.

Jun 17

MARKET PAUSES BEFORE THE STORM: RETAIL SALES & FOMC AHEAD

Gold continues to hold above the broken descending trendline after last week's aggressive selloff, confirming that the market is still in a technical recovery phase. However, unlike the strong rebound seen earlier this week, price action has now shifted into a tight consolidation range beneath the 437x resistance cluster, signaling hesitation from both buyers and sellers ahead of today's major macro events.

From a broader perspective, this is no longer purely a technical market. The next directional move will likely be dictated by economic data rather than chart structure alone. Today's Retail Sales report will provide an updated view on U.S. consumer demand, while tomorrow's FOMC statement, economic projections, and Powell's press conference could redefine expectations for interest rates into the second half of the year.

The key observation is that despite last week's heavy liquidation, gold has not been able to reclaim major liquidity zones overhead. This suggests institutional money is still waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger bullish reversal. As a result, current rallies should still be treated cautiously until the market receives fresh macro guidance.

PRIMARY SCENARIO

If Retail Sales remains resilient and the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on future rate cuts, the recent recovery could lose momentum. In that case, the 437x Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance zone may continue acting as a ceiling.

Gold may then rotate lower toward the 430x support area, with the broader market remaining trapped inside a corrective structure ahead of FOMC.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

If today's data disappoints and the market interprets tomorrow's FOMC communication as more dovish than expected, gold could finally break above the compression structure.

A successful breakout above 437x would expose the next liquidity zone around 446x–447x, where the larger bearish trendline and higher-timeframe Fibonacci resistance converge.

SHORT-TERM BIAS

Bullish recovery remains intact while price holds above 430x support.

LONG-TERM BIAS

Neutral-to-bearish until gold decisively reclaims the 437x–447x resistance cluster and receives confirmation from post-FOMC flows.

LucasGrayTrading

Jun 18

Trade active

📈 GOLD H2 UPDATE – 18/06 ACTIVE

The bearish scenario played out almost exactly as anticipated.

Gold was sharply rejected from the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci confluence zone around 437x, while the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged failed to provide enough momentum for buyers to reclaim higher liquidity levels. Instead, the market interpreted the FOMC outcome as neutral rather than dovish, triggering another round of selling pressure.

The result was a rapid decline of nearly 1,700 pips, driving price back into the 421x support area and efficiently filling the liquidity gap left by last week's aggressive recovery.

From a macro perspective, nothing materially changed after FOMC. The Fed maintained its current policy stance, inflation remains above long-term targets, and policymakers continue to emphasize data dependency. Without a clear signal of imminent rate cuts, gold lacks a strong fundamental catalyst for a sustained bullish reversal.

What is happening now appears to be a technical rebound after liquidity was collected below the market, rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.

CURRENT MARKET VIEW

The recovery from 421x should be monitored closely.

If buyers can maintain control above the filled gap area, gold may extend its corrective rebound toward the broken support zone around 430x–437x.

However, as long as price remains below the major Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance cluster, rallies should still be viewed as corrective moves within a broader bearish structure.

The market has completed the first objective by filling downside liquidity. The next question is whether gold can reclaim lost structure, or whether institutions will use this rebound as another opportunity to reload shorts ahead of the next macro catalyst.

Short-term bias: Bullish rebound from 421x support.
Medium-term bias: Bearish below 437x resistance.

LucasGrayTrading 🔥📊