Gold (XAU/USD) prices showed a moderate recovery to around $4,615 (+0.50%) in today's session, attempting to break a three-day downtrend.
Despite rebounding from a monthly low, the precious metal still faces a major storm from the strengthening US dollar, driven by the Fed's hawkish shift and the complete diplomatic deadlock in the Middle East.
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✅ FOMC: Largest Split Since 1992
The Fed's decision last night left a scar on expectations of monetary easing:
- ⚡Surprising Dissent: Although interest rates remained at 3.50%-3.75%, three Fed officials dissented from the accommodative tone in the policy statement. This is the largest internal split in 34 years.
- ⚡Interest Hike Hints: Markets responded sharply by reducing bets on a rate cut. Conversely, the probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026 has now crept above 10% due to stubborn energy inflation.
- ⚡Powell's Farewell: Jerome Powell attempted to balance the tone of the debate by stating that his focus was on "neutrality," but the market preferred to focus on the hawkish faction that was beginning to dominate ahead of Kevin Warsh's arrival.
✅ Geopolitics: Trump Closes the Door Unconditionally on Nuclear
Hopes for peace in Islamabad were officially dashed after the latest statement from the White House:
- ⚡Proposal Rejection: President Donald Trump officially rejected Iran's proposal. He asserted that there would be no peace deal or lifting of the naval blockade until Iran completely halted its nuclear program.
- ⚡Hormuz Crisis: Trump confirmed that the maritime blockade would continue, guaranteeing continued energy supply disruptions. This strengthened the greenback as a primary safe haven amid the risk of global energy inflation.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, gold is making a healthy correction amidst a still-strong downtrend:
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,520 - $4,535): The recently tested monthly low. As long as the price remains above this level, the opportunity for a short-term technical rebound remains.
- ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,650): A psychological level that is now a major barrier. Gold needs to break through this level to convince the market that today's recovery is not just a dead cat bounce.
- ⚡PCE & GDP Pivot: The next major move will be triggered by the release of Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index data tonight. A hotter-than-expected PCE inflation figure could quickly end today's gold recovery.
Despite rebounding from a monthly low, the precious metal still faces a major storm from the strengthening US dollar, driven by the Fed's hawkish shift and the complete diplomatic deadlock in the Middle East.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ FOMC: Largest Split Since 1992
The Fed's decision last night left a scar on expectations of monetary easing:
- ⚡Surprising Dissent: Although interest rates remained at 3.50%-3.75%, three Fed officials dissented from the accommodative tone in the policy statement. This is the largest internal split in 34 years.
- ⚡Interest Hike Hints: Markets responded sharply by reducing bets on a rate cut. Conversely, the probability of a rate hike by the end of 2026 has now crept above 10% due to stubborn energy inflation.
- ⚡Powell's Farewell: Jerome Powell attempted to balance the tone of the debate by stating that his focus was on "neutrality," but the market preferred to focus on the hawkish faction that was beginning to dominate ahead of Kevin Warsh's arrival.
✅ Geopolitics: Trump Closes the Door Unconditionally on Nuclear
Hopes for peace in Islamabad were officially dashed after the latest statement from the White House:
- ⚡Proposal Rejection: President Donald Trump officially rejected Iran's proposal. He asserted that there would be no peace deal or lifting of the naval blockade until Iran completely halted its nuclear program.
- ⚡Hormuz Crisis: Trump confirmed that the maritime blockade would continue, guaranteeing continued energy supply disruptions. This strengthened the greenback as a primary safe haven amid the risk of global energy inflation.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, gold is making a healthy correction amidst a still-strong downtrend:
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,520 - $4,535): The recently tested monthly low. As long as the price remains above this level, the opportunity for a short-term technical rebound remains.
- ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,650): A psychological level that is now a major barrier. Gold needs to break through this level to convince the market that today's recovery is not just a dead cat bounce.
- ⚡PCE & GDP Pivot: The next major move will be triggered by the release of Q1 GDP and the PCE Price Index data tonight. A hotter-than-expected PCE inflation figure could quickly end today's gold recovery.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.