Gold prices (XAU/USD) have again attracted significant selling pressure after attempting to recover to the $4,590 level during today's Asian session.
Investors' tactical moves, skeptical of the apparent de-escalation in the Middle East, combined with a strengthening US dollar (USD) supported by a hawkish monetary outlook, have cut short the rebound from the April-May low of $4,480.
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✅ Geopolitics: "Qatar Pause" vs. Pezeshkian Defensiveness
Mixed signals from the Washington-Tehran axis are keeping the market cautious:
- ⚡Trump Strike Delay: President Donald Trump confirmed that he was postponing a planned military strike against Iran at the diplomatic request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. However, Trump emphasized that negotiations are not underway and that he has instructed the US military to remain at "full strike readiness."
- ⚡Iranian Assertiveness: President Masoud Pezeshkian responded to Trump's ultimatum by asserting that Tehran will not bow to any power and will engage in dialogue based on the dignity and preservation of the nation's rights.
- ⚡Support for the DXY: This mutual intimidation keeps the geopolitical risk premium high. Investors prefer to hoard the liquid USD reserve currency over bullion, limiting the commodity rally.
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✅ Monetary: 2026 Interest Cut Speculation Officially "Extinct"
From a macroeconomic fundamental perspective, the foundation for US Dollar strength is increasingly solid:
- ⚡December Rate Hike Bets: The market has now completely ruled out the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut for the remainder of 2026. Conversely, based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point of view rate hike at the December meeting is stable at around 40%.
- ⚡Bond Yield Pressure: Concerns about structural inflation due to energy costs and US fiscal issues keep the yield on long-dated US Treasury bonds (30-year) near its highest level since 2023. This high yield mechanically suppresses the appeal of gold, which does not provide a daily yield.
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🛠️ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the price rejection near $4,590 confirms that market control remains under the bearish shadow:
- ⚡Least Resistance Path: Down. Failure to hold the $4,590 level indicates that any intraday price recovery will be viewed by institutions as a supply zone to open new short positions (fade the rally).
- ⚡Immediate Support ($4,520 - $4,530): This area serves as a daily defensive line before the price potentially retests the structural floor at $4,480.
- ⚡Key Resistance ($4,590 - $4,600): Gold needs a daily close above the psychological $4,600 level to break this short-term bearish bias.
Investors' tactical moves, skeptical of the apparent de-escalation in the Middle East, combined with a strengthening US dollar (USD) supported by a hawkish monetary outlook, have cut short the rebound from the April-May low of $4,480.
----------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Geopolitics: "Qatar Pause" vs. Pezeshkian Defensiveness
Mixed signals from the Washington-Tehran axis are keeping the market cautious:
- ⚡Trump Strike Delay: President Donald Trump confirmed that he was postponing a planned military strike against Iran at the diplomatic request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. However, Trump emphasized that negotiations are not underway and that he has instructed the US military to remain at "full strike readiness."
- ⚡Iranian Assertiveness: President Masoud Pezeshkian responded to Trump's ultimatum by asserting that Tehran will not bow to any power and will engage in dialogue based on the dignity and preservation of the nation's rights.
- ⚡Support for the DXY: This mutual intimidation keeps the geopolitical risk premium high. Investors prefer to hoard the liquid USD reserve currency over bullion, limiting the commodity rally.
----------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Monetary: 2026 Interest Cut Speculation Officially "Extinct"
From a macroeconomic fundamental perspective, the foundation for US Dollar strength is increasingly solid:
- ⚡December Rate Hike Bets: The market has now completely ruled out the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut for the remainder of 2026. Conversely, based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point of view rate hike at the December meeting is stable at around 40%.
- ⚡Bond Yield Pressure: Concerns about structural inflation due to energy costs and US fiscal issues keep the yield on long-dated US Treasury bonds (30-year) near its highest level since 2023. This high yield mechanically suppresses the appeal of gold, which does not provide a daily yield.
----------------------------------------------------------------
🛠️ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the price rejection near $4,590 confirms that market control remains under the bearish shadow:
- ⚡Least Resistance Path: Down. Failure to hold the $4,590 level indicates that any intraday price recovery will be viewed by institutions as a supply zone to open new short positions (fade the rally).
- ⚡Immediate Support ($4,520 - $4,530): This area serves as a daily defensive line before the price potentially retests the structural floor at $4,480.
- ⚡Key Resistance ($4,590 - $4,600): Gold needs a daily close above the psychological $4,600 level to break this short-term bearish bias.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.