XAUUSD: Intraday bullish channel supports recovery.

Gold is building a short-term recovery structure after the recent sharp decline, and price is now moving inside a rising intraday channel. From Kelly’s view, the main scenario for today still leans bullish as long as gold can hold above the lower channel support and stay above the key violation area near 4,313.

The important detail is that this recovery is not fully confirmed as a broader reversal yet. It is an intraday bullish channel inside a market that still carries medium-term bearish risk.

⟡ Market structure

The chart shows gold reacting from the lower area after the previous sell-off, then forming higher lows inside the rising channel. Price is currently trading around 4,338–4,352, with the next important resistance sitting near 4,375–4,426.

The 4,313 area is critical. If price stays above this zone, the intraday recovery structure remains valid and gold may continue pushing towards the upper channel area.

However, if price breaks below 4,313 and loses the rising channel, the bullish recovery setup weakens quickly. That would activate the alternative scenario, where the market resumes the medium-term wave 5 decline.

➤ Key levels

◌ 4,313: signal-strength violation area and key invalidation level
◌ 4,338–4,352: current reaction zone
◌ 4,375–4,380: first upside resistance
◌ 4,426: strong support turned upper resistance
◌ 4,210–4,220: medium-term wave 5 downside target if the channel breaks

⌁ Elliott Wave view

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current intraday structure may be developing as a recovery sequence after the previous bearish wave. The latest movement shows a possible smaller bullish structure forming inside the rising channel.

If the channel holds, gold may continue building wave 3 to wave 5 higher inside the short-term recovery path, with 4,375 first and 4,426 as the next target area.

The exception is clear. If gold breaks below 4,313, the bullish sequence loses quality. In that case, the chart may shift back into the medium-term bearish count, where wave 5 lower can continue towards the 4,210–4,220 zone.

▸ Trading scenario

Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold above the rising channel and confirm continuation.

Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above 4,338–4,352
Stop loss: below 4,313
Take profit 1: 4,375
Take profit 2: 4,426
Take profit 3: 4,450 if momentum expands

Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,313 and closes outside the rising channel, the bullish intraday setup weakens. In that case, the medium-term wave 5 decline may be activated, with 4,210–4,220 becoming the next major downside reference.

⌁ Kelly’s view

For Kelly, this is a conditional bullish intraday setup. The rising channel is still valid, but the market must protect 4,313 to keep the recovery structure alive.

The cleaner view is not to chase price blindly. Watch whether gold can hold the channel and reclaim resistance step by step.

Gold is recovering inside the intraday channel.
But if 4,313 breaks, the medium-term wave 5 bearish scenario comes back into focus.

Share your view below.