Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 22, 2025)

Oct 22

🔹 1. Momentum
D1:
The D1 momentum is preparing to turn bullish, signaling the start of a new upward trend.
→ We can expect at least 3–5 consecutive bullish days ahead.

H4:
We need to wait for the H4 candle to close to confirm the reversal signal.
If confirmed, there’s a strong possibility that today will form an intraday uptrend.

H1:
H1 momentum has already turned upward, but it’s now in the overbought zone.
Therefore, the current rise won’t be strong, and a minor pullback is needed to bring momentum back to the oversold area — creating a foundation for a more stable bullish move.
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🔹 2. Wave Structure
D1 Timeframe:
Yesterday saw a sharp decline, but D1 momentum is now preparing to reverse upward.
Counting the correction candles, we already have five candles, suggesting that the market may soon enter a new bullish phase lasting 3–5 days or more.
During this recovery phase, we need to monitor two key scenarios:
• If wave movements overlap and lack strength, and when D1 momentum returns to the overbought zone but price fails to break the previous high, then the Wave 4 (yellow) scenario is still in play.
• If price rises sharply and decisively, the recent correction might only be part of Wave 3 (yellow), meaning the bullish trend is continuing.

H4 Timeframe:
Yesterday’s structure was identified as a Flat correction, and it remains valid.
Price has retraced into the Wave 4 zone of the smaller degree structure, reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of Wave A.
If Wave 5 (purple) is now developing, the ideal target would be around 4476.
However, if price rises with overlapping waves, this could instead represent a corrective move within Wave 4 (yellow), targeting the previous high zone between 4381 and 4476.

H1 Timeframe:
Within Wave W, there is a small Flat correction, where Wave C extended to twice the length of Wave A.
Now, Wave Y (blue) has also declined to 2× Wave W, suggesting weakening buying power.
Even so, in the short term, we still expect an intraday bullish move today.
→ The trading bias remains buy-side until H4 momentum reaches the overbought area and reverses.
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🔹 3. Trading Plan
Buy Zone: 4101 – 4098
Stop Loss (SL): 4088
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 4190
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🔹 4. Notes
Liquidity and resistance zones are already marked on the chart.
→ Wait for price to break and retest those areas to confirm a valid Buy setup.

Oct 22

Trade active

Looking at the H4 chart, we can see that the H4 momentum is still rising, but there are signs of a false push, which could indicate the completion of wave 5 of wave Y.
At the moment, we should not rush to enter swing buy positions and instead wait for the candle to close.
If the price breaks below 4004.5, it may continue deeper toward the 3927 zone.
The best approach is to wait for a strong bullish candle close to confirm the bottom before considering any buy setups.