XAUUSD: Rebound Hits Sell Zone

Apr 23

Gold is pushing back into a sensitive resistance area, but the rebound still does not look strong enough to shift the broader structure back into a bullish trend.

From Kelly’s view, this move still reads more like a corrective recovery than the start of a clean upside reversal. Price is now testing the 4695–4710 sell zone, while also reacting around a descending trendline. That combination makes this area important, because it is where the market may decide whether the rebound can extend further or roll back into the dominant bearish structure.

Technical structure

The broader chart still looks defensive. Price has bounced from the 4670 support area, but the recovery remains limited and uneven. More importantly, gold is still trading below the higher resistance layers, which means buyers have created a rebound, but not a real structural reversal.

The current setup is notable for three reasons:

price is retesting the 4695–4710 sell zone
the rebound is running into trendline resistance
the broader structure still shows lower highs and unfinished downside pressure

As long as gold stays below the nearby resistance band, the rebound remains vulnerable to failure.

Elliott Wave view

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current bounce still fits best as a wave 4 correction after the previous impulsive decline. If that count is correct, then the next meaningful move would likely be wave 5 lower.

This is why the current rebound should be judged by its structure, not just by the fact that price is moving up. A true bullish reversal would normally reclaim resistance with stronger continuation and acceptance above it. So far, this recovery still looks corrective and contained.

Fibonacci and liquidity structure

The Fibonacci projection continues to support the bearish case. The downside path still leaves room toward the 1.618 extension, which aligns with the deeper liquidity zone near 4573.

That matters because when a Fibonacci extension overlaps with a clear liquidity area, the zone often becomes a meaningful downside magnet if the market resumes trend.

For now, the main references remain:

4695–4710 as the immediate resistance and sell zone
4670 as the first downside trigger
4573 as the deeper liquidity objective if bearish momentum expands
What matters next

If gold fails to break cleanly above the 4695–4710 zone and starts slipping back under 4670, the corrective rebound would likely be close to complete. That would strengthen the case for another bearish leg toward 4573.

On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the sell zone, break the descending trendline, and build acceptance above nearby resistance, then the current bearish wave count would lose quality.

For now, price is still reacting below resistance, not reclaiming it.

Kelly’s view

For Kelly, this remains a sell-the-rebound type of chart. The bounce from 4670 is visible, but it is unfolding into resistance, not through it. That keeps the broader bearish structure intact for now.

As long as gold stays capped below the current sell zone and fails to reclaim higher resistance, Kelly’s preferred read remains that the market is finishing wave 4 and may still be preparing for wave 5 lower.

Conclusion

Gold is rebounding, but the structure still looks corrective rather than bullish. The 4695–4710 area is the key zone to watch. If resistance holds, gold may rotate back toward 4670 first, with 4573 remaining the deeper downside reference.

The rebound is there.
But structurally, the chart still suggests that the more important move may be lower.

Apr 24

Trade active

The bearish scenario is unfolding as expected; the current support zone is quite important, and a break below it would lead to a sharp decline.