XAUUSD bullish may trigger next upside wave.

Gold is starting to recover after reacting from the 4,446 buy zone, and the intraday structure is shifting more positively. From Kelly’s view, the main trend for today is leaning bullish, but the cleaner setup still needs confirmation before expecting a stronger move into the upper liquidity area.

The key idea is simple: gold is recovering from support, but buyers need to confirm above resistance before the next wave can expand.

Market structure

Price has broken away from the lower part of the descending channel and is now testing the upper structure. The reaction from the 4,446 buy zone shows that buyers are defending the lower support area, while the market is slowly building a recovery base.

The current zone around 4,483–4,496 is important because it acts as the bullish confirmation area. If price can reclaim this region with strength, the next upside path may open towards the high liquidity zone near 4,531.

Key levels

4,446: buy zone and main intraday support
4,483: bullish confirmation zone
4,496: next breakout confirmation level
4,531: high liquidity zone and upside target
Below 4,446: area where the bullish setup weakens

Elliott Wave view

From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a bearish corrective sequence near the 4,420–4,446 area. The current rebound may be the beginning of a new bullish wave structure.

If buyers confirm above 4,483–4,496, the next upside phase could develop as a stronger impulsive move, with price targeting the high liquidity zone around 4,531.

If price fails below confirmation and returns under 4,446, the bullish wave count would lose quality and the structure may need to be reassessed.

Trading scenario

Preferred scenario: wait for bullish confirmation above the 4,483–4,496 area before looking for continuation.

Entry zone: after confirmation above 4,483–4,496
Stop loss: below 4,446 or below the confirmed higher low
Take profit 1: 4,496
Take profit 2: 4,531
Take profit 3: 4,550 if momentum expands

Alternative scenario: if gold rejects from 4,496 and loses 4,446, the recovery structure weakens and price may rotate back into the lower channel.

Kelly’s view

For Kelly, this is a buy-after-confirmation structure, not a blind entry at support. The reaction from 4,446 is constructive, but the market still needs to prove strength above the confirmation zone.

If buyers reclaim 4,483–4,496, the next bullish wave may open towards the 4,531 liquidity area.

Gold is showing recovery signs. The next clean move depends on confirmation above resistance.

Share your view below.