📌 An important exchange here for Gold as late unaware buyers begin to go overboard on position length and combination of over expression. Sellers on the other hand are aiming for a pullback towards soft and strong support zones at +/- 1750 and +/- 1550.
I managed to carry out a deeply laid plan since 2018, although it could easily have been refuted since sellers have been handicapped in a well known risk-off environment. Moreover, I understand no macro swing ending is exactly ideal but rather one that is more clearly illustrated with time.
Things developed with the highlights as follows:
(1): The Ladder is empty
Buyers were threatening control since $1,200. The key takeaway from this is to understand that sharp speculators have been riding this for some time. The simple and clear flow has been higher. Here buyers took charge and began the march towards sellers outpost at $1,970.
Note that instead of playing for intraday moves and banking pips, the correct approach was to swing the bat for a Long-term fundamental trade and continue loading the moment it started working. Pips are for pipsqueaks!
(2): Large Triangle Forming
In the flows, there followed after a few handles higher very little resistance from sellers who could not be liberated at the time. An interesting notion as to how keen sharp hands were to trade the moves higher in Gold and how much of a leading indicator it has been for the entire Covid flows.
(3): Delights and Torments/b]
The examples continue to show a simple case of flanking and riding the pig until the trend exhausts itself. Until now, sellers have not posted a credible threat. The macro swing worked perfectly in spite of allowing some minor overshoots at $1,970.
Play went on... Buyers begin to take profit and sellers attempt their first credible advance since Covid chapter I as Fed have implemented AIT as a somewhat backward solution to an inevitable problem. The technical pullback sellers wish to create opens up $1,750 and $1,550 as main targets before anything else can be opened. I think this pragmatic correction is a demonstration of when the boat becomes too crowded on one side. Positioning dominates play as inflation takes the backseat for now, the struggle to hold $1,925 will imply the highs are here for the year because of the $1,970 blockade.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
An interesting analysis, thank you very much.
In my humble opinion, a gold investor should not flinch.
Because the very long-term things are working to his advantage and to me it looks like it will stay that way for a while.
See S&P500/Gold ratio chart below.
The red dotted almost horizontal line is the very long-term resistance and the price has dipped below it since October 2018.
Sure there will be short week/month fluctuations along the way but it won't probably be until 2025 before the new low is reached and a long-term move back from Gold to S&P 500 is reasonable.
In any case, IMHO, nothing should be done until at least the first red moving average line has been crossed from bottom to top, and that is not what it looks like at the moment.
If you want to sleep well, just sit on your hands, that is the hardest thing for most people in investment. ;-)
limantodaniel
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No more sell for gold
Chadison-Brosevelt
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Great overview of Gold, I was one of the early speculators around 1300 and held on until this past week! What sort of implications do you think the turn lower will have on cryptos like btc?
on3tee
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I think weekly is very reasonable as a physical buyer, but paper folks may be interested in a daily? Weekly seems fine to me. Good info thanks for sharing
DollarHouseCapital
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much respect, I have followed your hilights, updates and posts and still marvel at their accuracy. I will watch for sell opportunities
EmptyEternity
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Awesome analysis
renemulgo
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The wave counting and labeling are completely off.
sfmqrb
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HI,
hope you ok
your analysis is wrong based on elliot wave counting.
wave 4 is within wave 1,
wave 3 is the shortest wave in the same impulsive wave.
In my humble opinion, a gold investor should not flinch.
Because the very long-term things are working to his advantage and to me it looks like it will stay that way for a while.
See S&P500/Gold ratio chart below.
The red dotted almost horizontal line is the very long-term resistance and the price has dipped below it since October 2018.
Sure there will be short week/month fluctuations along the way but it won't probably be until 2025 before the new low is reached and a long-term move back from Gold to S&P 500 is reasonable.
In any case, IMHO, nothing should be done until at least the first red moving average line has been crossed from bottom to top, and that is not what it looks like at the moment.
If you want to sleep well, just sit on your hands, that is the hardest thing for most people in investment. ;-)