🟡 XAU/USD – 11/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
US PPI yesterday: Wholesale prices dropped sharply, below forecasts → strengthening expectations of a FED rate cut.
FED probabilities: 100% odds for a -25bps cut next week, and even 16% of investors bet on -50bps.
Today: US CPI & Jobless Claims – key data to assess inflation & labor, determining the specific cut.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: FED will certainly cut rates, so Gold remains supported in its bullish trend. Short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment or surprises (e.g., tariff news from Trump).
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance):
Bearish OB: 3645 – 3650 (near-term resistance)
Weak High: 3674 (target if breakout succeeds)
Golden Harbor (Support):
Near support: 3622
FVG Dock: 3603
Bullish OB: 3581 – 3585 (strong mid-term support)
Market Structure:
H1 shows a short-term bearish BoS, retesting support.
Main trend remains bullish → possible pullback to 3622 or 3603 before rallying toward 3670+.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority with trend)
Entry 1 (FVG): 3603 – 3605
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 – 3615 – 3625 – 365x
Entry 2 (Bullish OB): 3581 – 3585
SL: 3572
TP: 3600 – 3620 – 3640
⚡ Sell (only short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3645 – 3650
SL: 3658
TP: 3635 – 3628 – 3622
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain full of wind as the FED is almost certain to cut rates. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3622 – 3603) and the deeper OB 3581 – 3585 are safe havens to follow the bullish tide. If the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3645 – 3650), only Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps are recommended. The larger voyage still heads north, steering Gold toward new highs at 367x.”
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
US PPI yesterday: Wholesale prices dropped sharply, below forecasts → strengthening expectations of a FED rate cut.
FED probabilities: 100% odds for a -25bps cut next week, and even 16% of investors bet on -50bps.
Today: US CPI & Jobless Claims – key data to assess inflation & labor, determining the specific cut.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: FED will certainly cut rates, so Gold remains supported in its bullish trend. Short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment or surprises (e.g., tariff news from Trump).
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance):
Bearish OB: 3645 – 3650 (near-term resistance)
Weak High: 3674 (target if breakout succeeds)
Golden Harbor (Support):
Near support: 3622
FVG Dock: 3603
Bullish OB: 3581 – 3585 (strong mid-term support)
Market Structure:
H1 shows a short-term bearish BoS, retesting support.
Main trend remains bullish → possible pullback to 3622 or 3603 before rallying toward 3670+.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority with trend)
Entry 1 (FVG): 3603 – 3605
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 – 3615 – 3625 – 365x
Entry 2 (Bullish OB): 3581 – 3585
SL: 3572
TP: 3600 – 3620 – 3640
⚡ Sell (only short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3645 – 3650
SL: 3658
TP: 3635 – 3628 – 3622
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain full of wind as the FED is almost certain to cut rates. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3622 – 3603) and the deeper OB 3581 – 3585 are safe havens to follow the bullish tide. If the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3645 – 3650), only Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps are recommended. The larger voyage still heads north, steering Gold toward new highs at 367x.”
Trade active
Gold Update – 15m Chart, 11/09/2025After the US CPI release, price moved sharply but hasn’t broken the main trend, still consolidating within 3620–3645.
Intraday structure shows sideways action, with alternating ups and downs, reflecting that liquidity is waiting for new confirmation.
Nearest support: 3620–3625, where price has repeatedly bounced.
Nearest resistance: 3640–3645, aligning with the previous H1 resistance.
Price Action Meaning
Every dip below 3625 sees buying pressure → buyers are still accumulating.
Conversely, every push to 3640 faces strong selling → sellers dominate the upper zone.
This is a “compression range preparing for breakout.”
Short-term Scenarios
Buy scalp: prefer entries around 3620–3625, stop below 3615.
Short sell: 3640–3645 remains a safe sell zone, stop above 3650.
Breakout trade: if price breaks firmly above 3645, target 3670; if it breaks 3620, downside opens toward 3585.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.