XAUUSD: FVG Breakout or Rejection?

XAUUSD has staged a strong recovery after sweeping sell-side liquidity and forming a clear Change of Character (CHoCH), indicating that buyers have regained short-term control. The sharp rally from the recent lows reflects renewed bullish momentum. However, price is now approaching a crucial resistance zone where the next major move is likely to be determined.

The immediate focus is the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which aligns with the descending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud. This confluence creates a high-probability decision zone. A confirmed breakout and sustained acceptance above this resistance would reinforce the bullish structure and open the way towards the next liquidity zone around 4165–4180.

On the other hand, failure to break above the FVG could trigger a temporary rejection as the market seeks to rebalance inefficiencies below. A pullback into the nearby bullish FVG and mitigation zone would remain technically healthy, provided buyers continue to defend this support and preserve the newly established market structure.

Overall, the short-term bias remains cautiously bullish while price holds above the recent demand zone. The reaction around the current FVG will determine whether XAUUSD is preparing for a continuation higher or merely forming another liquidity trap before its next impulsive move.

Key Levels

Resistance: 4135–4150 (FVG + Trendline + Ichimoku Resistance)
Bullish Target: 4165–4180
Support: 4105–4115 (Bullish FVG / Mitigation Zone)

📌 Note: This analysis reflects my personal market view based on Price Action and Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Always wait for confirmation and apply proper risk management before entering any trade.