Gold continues to respect the recovery scenario outlined at the start of the week. After establishing a temporary bottom around the 40xx liquidity zone, price has maintained a strong technical rebound and is now trading firmly above the previously broken H4 descending trendline.
The key difference compared with last week's recovery attempts is that buyers are no longer reacting only from oversold conditions. Instead, the market is beginning to stabilize above the 430x region, suggesting that short-term liquidity accumulation is taking place ahead of the week's major macro events.
From a macro perspective, gold is benefiting from a combination of factors. Markets are entering a waiting phase before the upcoming FOMC decision, while expectations for a stable Fed stance have reduced aggressive USD buying. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain present but have not escalated enough to trigger a full safe-haven rush. The result is a market environment where traders are reducing directional exposure and allowing gold to recover part of the heavy losses suffered during the previous week.
However, the broader picture remains unchanged. Last week's decline from the 44xx region toward 40xx created significant liquidity imbalances. While gold is currently filling part of that imbalance, the market still faces several important overhead liquidity zones that could attract fresh selling pressure.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as gold holds above the 430x Supply + Fibonacci support zone, the current recovery remains valid.
Price may continue extending higher toward the Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 436x–438x, where the descending trendline and key liquidity clusters converge. This remains the most important area to monitor before the FOMC meeting.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers fail to maintain control above 430x and momentum weakens beneath the recovery structure, gold could return to retest lower support zones before attempting another directional move.
Until the market receives fresh guidance from the Federal Reserve, price action is likely to remain heavily driven by liquidity positioning rather than long-term conviction.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery while price remains above the 430x support region.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish below the major Daily trendline and overhead Demand zones. Current upside remains a corrective recovery within a larger bearish structure.
LucasGrayTrading 📈🔥📉
The key difference compared with last week's recovery attempts is that buyers are no longer reacting only from oversold conditions. Instead, the market is beginning to stabilize above the 430x region, suggesting that short-term liquidity accumulation is taking place ahead of the week's major macro events.
From a macro perspective, gold is benefiting from a combination of factors. Markets are entering a waiting phase before the upcoming FOMC decision, while expectations for a stable Fed stance have reduced aggressive USD buying. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain present but have not escalated enough to trigger a full safe-haven rush. The result is a market environment where traders are reducing directional exposure and allowing gold to recover part of the heavy losses suffered during the previous week.
However, the broader picture remains unchanged. Last week's decline from the 44xx region toward 40xx created significant liquidity imbalances. While gold is currently filling part of that imbalance, the market still faces several important overhead liquidity zones that could attract fresh selling pressure.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as gold holds above the 430x Supply + Fibonacci support zone, the current recovery remains valid.
Price may continue extending higher toward the Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 436x–438x, where the descending trendline and key liquidity clusters converge. This remains the most important area to monitor before the FOMC meeting.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers fail to maintain control above 430x and momentum weakens beneath the recovery structure, gold could return to retest lower support zones before attempting another directional move.
Until the market receives fresh guidance from the Federal Reserve, price action is likely to remain heavily driven by liquidity positioning rather than long-term conviction.
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Bullish recovery while price remains above the 430x support region.
LONG-TERM BIAS
Still bearish below the major Daily trendline and overhead Demand zones. Current upside remains a corrective recovery within a larger bearish structure.
LucasGrayTrading 📈🔥📉
Trade active
The bearish reaction has activated precisely from the projected confluence zone.Gold rallied strongly ahead of the FOMC decision, but the recovery stalled immediately upon reaching the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance area around 437x. Following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged and maintain a cautious tone, buyers failed to generate enough momentum to break through overhead liquidity.
The result was another aggressive selloff of nearly 1,700 pips, pushing price back into the 423x–425x Supply zone, the same area previously identified as the first downside objective.
From a macro perspective, the market continues to balance between optimism surrounding peace negotiations and the reality of a Federal Reserve that remains in no hurry to cut rates. While geopolitical developments have supported short-term rebounds, monetary policy remains the dominant force shaping the broader trend.
The key takeaway is that the market respected the higher-timeframe resistance perfectly. This reinforces the view that recent rallies are still corrective in nature rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish reversal.
CURRENT MARKET VIEW
Gold is now reacting from the 423x–425x support zone, where buyers are attempting to stabilize price after the sharp decline.
A short-term rebound remains possible from current levels, especially after such an aggressive liquidation move. However, unless price can reclaim the broken resistance structure above, any recovery should still be viewed as a technical bounce within a larger bearish framework.
The market has once again confirmed that liquidity above 437x remains heavily defended. Attention now shifts to whether buyers can build a stronger base around 423x, or if another wave of selling will emerge after the current relief bounce.
thai
SHORT-TERM BIAS
Corrective rebound from 423x–425x support.
MEDIUM-TERM BIAS
Bearish while price remains below the 437x resistance cluster and the post-FOMC structure remains intact.
LucasGrayTrading 🔥📉
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.