XAU/USD goes up amid Catalan crisis
XAU/USD goes up amid Catalan crisis
From technical perspective, the pair had all means to reach the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. A release of better than expected information about the US GDP growth was projected to give an additional stimulus. However, a declaration of independence by the Catalan parliament and subsequent sack of the regional government by Spanish PM spiked demand for gold.
As a result, the new trading session the pair started at the updated weekly PP at 1,274.04. As this barrier is additionally secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMA, the exchange rate is expected to resume movement to the south, trying to reach the weekly S1 at 1,264.23.
Fundamental background, generally, supports strengthening of the Dollar. But in the meantime, North Korean and Catalan geopolitical risks might provoke short-term recoveries of the yellow metal.
From technical perspective, the pair had all means to reach the bottom trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. A release of better than expected information about the US GDP growth was projected to give an additional stimulus. However, a declaration of independence by the Catalan parliament and subsequent sack of the regional government by Spanish PM spiked demand for gold.
As a result, the new trading session the pair started at the updated weekly PP at 1,274.04. As this barrier is additionally secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMA, the exchange rate is expected to resume movement to the south, trying to reach the weekly S1 at 1,264.23.
Fundamental background, generally, supports strengthening of the Dollar. But in the meantime, North Korean and Catalan geopolitical risks might provoke short-term recoveries of the yellow metal.
Comment:
XAU/USD tests 200-hour SMA
In line with expectations, until release of the US macroeconomic data the pair was moving relatively steady. However, as soon as markets found out that one the leading indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index, substantially exceed expectations the rate plunged to the 1,269.37 level. Nevertheless, the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as employment data release do not allow reinforcing this success.
On the other hand, in order to break to top the pair still needs to bypass the weekly PP, the upper boundary of a descending channel and, most importantly, the 200-hour SMA. Previous failed attempts suggest that until the first release these barriers are likely to constrain active rise of the yellow metal’s price. In case of positive news, the pair is expected to repeat previous Thursday’s downfall and reach the weekly S1 at 1.264.23.
In line with expectations, until release of the US macroeconomic data the pair was moving relatively steady. However, as soon as markets found out that one the leading indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index, substantially exceed expectations the rate plunged to the 1,269.37 level. Nevertheless, the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as employment data release do not allow reinforcing this success.
On the other hand, in order to break to top the pair still needs to bypass the weekly PP, the upper boundary of a descending channel and, most importantly, the 200-hour SMA. Previous failed attempts suggest that until the first release these barriers are likely to constrain active rise of the yellow metal’s price. In case of positive news, the pair is expected to repeat previous Thursday’s downfall and reach the weekly S1 at 1.264.23.
Comment:
XAU/USD forms rising wedge pattern
The Fed Monetary Policy Statement, indicating on the upcoming interest rate hike, led to short-term appreciation of the yellow metal against the buck. From technical point of view, the pair formed a rising wedge pattern, which is expected to be broken to the south during this trading session.
However, even then the buck is unlikely to reach the bottom trend-line of a dominant, long-term ascending channel. Such assumption is partially based on a combined support formed by the 55-, 100-, 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP, which are likely to restrain the fall of the rate, and partially on the fact that the pair is simultaneously moving in new junior ascending channel, which already consists of four confirmation points. However, an announcement of the new Fed Chair might create a necessary momentum to push the rate through all these barriers.
The Fed Monetary Policy Statement, indicating on the upcoming interest rate hike, led to short-term appreciation of the yellow metal against the buck. From technical point of view, the pair formed a rising wedge pattern, which is expected to be broken to the south during this trading session.
However, even then the buck is unlikely to reach the bottom trend-line of a dominant, long-term ascending channel. Such assumption is partially based on a combined support formed by the 55-, 100-, 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP, which are likely to restrain the fall of the rate, and partially on the fact that the pair is simultaneously moving in new junior ascending channel, which already consists of four confirmation points. However, an announcement of the new Fed Chair might create a necessary momentum to push the rate through all these barriers.
Comment:
XAU/USD forms symmetrical triangle
In result of the previous trading session, the exchange rate has formed symmetrical triangle pattern. A combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs in conjunction with the weekly PP located at 1,274.00 suggests that the pair most probably is going to make a breakout in the upward direction.
On the other hand, that side also contains a combined resistance set up by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the updated monthly PP 1,279.41. For this reason, the fully-fledged breakout most probably will be postponed until release of information on the American employment change and change in salaries.
There is a need to take into account that on daily chart the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which implies the further appreciation of the yellow metal against the buck.
In result of the previous trading session, the exchange rate has formed symmetrical triangle pattern. A combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs in conjunction with the weekly PP located at 1,274.00 suggests that the pair most probably is going to make a breakout in the upward direction.
On the other hand, that side also contains a combined resistance set up by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the updated monthly PP 1,279.41. For this reason, the fully-fledged breakout most probably will be postponed until release of information on the American employment change and change in salaries.
There is a need to take into account that on daily chart the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which implies the further appreciation of the yellow metal against the buck.
The gold prices continued to rise on Monday, following reports about the 1.3% PCE Price Index release as well as rumours that President Trump will chose Governor Powell to replace the current Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
From technical point of view, this three-day growth has practically resulted in a breakout through the upper edge of recently formed descending channel. At the moment, the only barriers that constrain the bullion from climbing further are the 200-hour SMA near 1,277.16, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,279.00 and an alleged resistance near 1,281.57.
One of these barriers as well as the weekly PP and the 100-hour SMA from the bottom are likely to constrain the pair from making major advances in the first half of the day. To be precise, until release of information on the US Consumer Confidence.