XAUUSD H1 Analysis Before Key News
During the Asian-European session, gold is likely to move sideways awaiting news as the market enters a sensitive phase with data and political factors, amidst a clearly formed short-term downtrend structure.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Trading strategy according to the current structure, prioritizing short-term sell and buy at lower liquidity zones.
Main sell zone: around 4323, coinciding with the POC of the Volume Profile.
Technical context: price is moving below the equilibrium zone, clear H1 downtrend structure; the POC area often acts as a "pullback to sell" price zone.
Expected movement: early European session may see a pullback of about 40–50 points, then price returns to sideways movement and faces downward pressure again.
Position management:
Sell should only be held short-term and tightly managed when price reacts at 4323. If price surpasses POC and holds above this zone, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell positions.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at lower liquidity zones, suitable for medium-term trading.
Buy zone 1: around 4242, important VAH zone.
Buy zone 2: around 4215, Buy Zone according to Volume Profile.
Technical context: these are two price zones with high liquidity density, often attracting buying force when the market needs to rebalance after a decline.
Expected movement: price sweeps liquidity below, creating a new accumulation base and seeking recovery opportunities.
MAIN REASON
On H1, a downtrend structure has formed after a distribution phase, indicating short-term advantage leans towards the sell side.
Volume Profile clearly identifies POC 4323 as a reasonable pullback zone to sell, while 4242 and 4215 are price zones with high probability of buying reaction.
Sideways scenario before news fits the market context awaiting important macroeconomic and political information.
MACRO CONTEXT AND POLITICAL NEWS
Political factors are strongly impacting the currency market, especially the USD. The US is said to have proposed a security guarantee mechanism for Ukraine similar to NATO's Article 5 to promote negotiations to end the conflict with Russia, although territorial issues have not yet reached consensus.
These signals are putting weakening pressure on the USD, thereby continuing to support gold in the medium term. However, in the short term, strong volatility around news release time is something to be particularly noted.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not prioritize trading when price is between the equilibrium zone and has not reached important Volume Profile levels.
Sell orders should only be considered short-term trades before news, avoiding holding through data release or important political speeches.
Medium-term buy strategy will have more advantage if price reacts clearly at 4242 or deeper at 4215.
Closely monitor USD fluctuations as current political news is the main driving factor.
During the Asian-European session, gold is likely to move sideways awaiting news as the market enters a sensitive phase with data and political factors, amidst a clearly formed short-term downtrend structure.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Trading strategy according to the current structure, prioritizing short-term sell and buy at lower liquidity zones.
Main sell zone: around 4323, coinciding with the POC of the Volume Profile.
Technical context: price is moving below the equilibrium zone, clear H1 downtrend structure; the POC area often acts as a "pullback to sell" price zone.
Expected movement: early European session may see a pullback of about 40–50 points, then price returns to sideways movement and faces downward pressure again.
Position management:
Sell should only be held short-term and tightly managed when price reacts at 4323. If price surpasses POC and holds above this zone, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell positions.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at lower liquidity zones, suitable for medium-term trading.
Buy zone 1: around 4242, important VAH zone.
Buy zone 2: around 4215, Buy Zone according to Volume Profile.
Technical context: these are two price zones with high liquidity density, often attracting buying force when the market needs to rebalance after a decline.
Expected movement: price sweeps liquidity below, creating a new accumulation base and seeking recovery opportunities.
MAIN REASON
On H1, a downtrend structure has formed after a distribution phase, indicating short-term advantage leans towards the sell side.
Volume Profile clearly identifies POC 4323 as a reasonable pullback zone to sell, while 4242 and 4215 are price zones with high probability of buying reaction.
Sideways scenario before news fits the market context awaiting important macroeconomic and political information.
MACRO CONTEXT AND POLITICAL NEWS
Political factors are strongly impacting the currency market, especially the USD. The US is said to have proposed a security guarantee mechanism for Ukraine similar to NATO's Article 5 to promote negotiations to end the conflict with Russia, although territorial issues have not yet reached consensus.
These signals are putting weakening pressure on the USD, thereby continuing to support gold in the medium term. However, in the short term, strong volatility around news release time is something to be particularly noted.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not prioritize trading when price is between the equilibrium zone and has not reached important Volume Profile levels.
Sell orders should only be considered short-term trades before news, avoiding holding through data release or important political speeches.
Medium-term buy strategy will have more advantage if price reacts clearly at 4242 or deeper at 4215.
Closely monitor USD fluctuations as current political news is the main driving factor.
Trade active
THE SALES SCENARIO HAS WORKED EXACTLY AS PREDICTED.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.