The market is entering a large-range consolidation ahead of today’s CPI release. Gold has recovered strongly from the lower levels but is now approaching the upper boundary of the current range, while price remains below the major Demand + Trendline resistance around 4460–4475.
Macro Perspective
Today’s U.S. CPI is the key catalyst for Gold.
Current expectations:
Core CPI m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.0% previous
CPI y/y: 3.4% vs. 3.5% previous
Core CPI y/y: 2.5% vs. 2.6% previous
CPI m/m: 0.1% vs. -0.4% previous
The market is therefore waiting for confirmation on whether inflation is continuing to cool.
A softer-than-expected CPI could pressure the USD and Treasury yields, potentially giving Gold enough liquidity to challenge the upper resistance. However, if inflation remains sticky or comes in hotter than expected, the USD could recover and put renewed pressure on Gold.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently moving inside a large H4 range, with price approaching the upper supply area.
Key resistance: 4460–4475
Major resistance: 4525–4540
Key support: 4350
Next support: 4310–4330
Lower target: 4260–4270
The current structure does not yet justify chasing the rally. Gold needs a confirmed breakout above 4460–4475 to establish a stronger continuation move.
Bullish Scenario
If CPI comes in significantly softer than expectations, Gold could receive fresh USD weakness and break above 4460–4475.
A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 4525–4540.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
The preferred approach remains selling into resistance until Gold proves otherwise.
If CPI fails to provide a strong bullish catalyst and Gold is rejected around 4460–4475, price could rotate back toward 4350, followed by 4310–4330 and potentially 4260–4270.
The key point is that Gold is currently near the top of a large range, not in a clean breakout structure.
Trading Focus
Large timeframe first. Short-term trades should follow the confirmed direction after CPI rather than anticipating the number.
Avoid FOMO around the news release. Let the first reaction develop, then wait for confirmation around the key zones.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow, USD reaction and CPI-driven volatility throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGray Trading
Macro Perspective
Today’s U.S. CPI is the key catalyst for Gold.
Current expectations:
Core CPI m/m: 0.2% vs. 0.0% previous
CPI y/y: 3.4% vs. 3.5% previous
Core CPI y/y: 2.5% vs. 2.6% previous
CPI m/m: 0.1% vs. -0.4% previous
The market is therefore waiting for confirmation on whether inflation is continuing to cool.
A softer-than-expected CPI could pressure the USD and Treasury yields, potentially giving Gold enough liquidity to challenge the upper resistance. However, if inflation remains sticky or comes in hotter than expected, the USD could recover and put renewed pressure on Gold.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently moving inside a large H4 range, with price approaching the upper supply area.
Key resistance: 4460–4475
Major resistance: 4525–4540
Key support: 4350
Next support: 4310–4330
Lower target: 4260–4270
The current structure does not yet justify chasing the rally. Gold needs a confirmed breakout above 4460–4475 to establish a stronger continuation move.
Bullish Scenario
If CPI comes in significantly softer than expectations, Gold could receive fresh USD weakness and break above 4460–4475.
A confirmed breakout could open the way toward 4525–4540.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
The preferred approach remains selling into resistance until Gold proves otherwise.
If CPI fails to provide a strong bullish catalyst and Gold is rejected around 4460–4475, price could rotate back toward 4350, followed by 4310–4330 and potentially 4260–4270.
The key point is that Gold is currently near the top of a large range, not in a clean breakout structure.
Trading Focus
Large timeframe first. Short-term trades should follow the confirmed direction after CPI rather than anticipating the number.
Avoid FOMO around the news release. Let the first reaction develop, then wait for confirmation around the key zones.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow, USD reaction and CPI-driven volatility throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGray Trading
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.