Yesterday's breakout above 5,175 turned out to be a false dawn. Gold tested the Fib 50% at 5,208, failed to hold, and sold off back through the breakout level. Gold settled 1.2% lower at 5,179, pressured by a firmer dollar and lingering inflation concerns, This morning we're trading around 5,153 right back inside the chop zone.
What Happened With CPI?
February CPI landed exactly in line headline 2.4% YoY, core 2.5% YoY. No surprise, no catalyst. The market largely shrugged it off as stale data since it predates the oil shock from the Iran war, which will only show up in March and April prints. CPI gave bulls nothing to work with, the dollar bounced, and gold rolled over.
Where Are We Now?
Back in the consolidation box. 5,175 has flipped back to resistance. 5,075 remains the floor. Until one of these levels breaks cleanly on an H4/daily close, this is a range to be respected, not fought.
Resistance: 5,175 → 5,208 (Fib 50%) → 5,257 (Fib 61.8%)
Support: 5,096 (Fib 23.6%) → 5,075 (box floor) → 4,998
Bias & Plan
Buy-the-dip remains the favoured approach the structural backdrop hasn't changed. Gold ETFs posted record inflows of $18.7 billion in January, For bulls to regain control, 5,175 needs to be reclaimed. Until then patience over positions.
What Happened With CPI?
February CPI landed exactly in line headline 2.4% YoY, core 2.5% YoY. No surprise, no catalyst. The market largely shrugged it off as stale data since it predates the oil shock from the Iran war, which will only show up in March and April prints. CPI gave bulls nothing to work with, the dollar bounced, and gold rolled over.
Where Are We Now?
Back in the consolidation box. 5,175 has flipped back to resistance. 5,075 remains the floor. Until one of these levels breaks cleanly on an H4/daily close, this is a range to be respected, not fought.
Resistance: 5,175 → 5,208 (Fib 50%) → 5,257 (Fib 61.8%)
Support: 5,096 (Fib 23.6%) → 5,075 (box floor) → 4,998
Bias & Plan
Buy-the-dip remains the favoured approach the structural backdrop hasn't changed. Gold ETFs posted record inflows of $18.7 billion in January, For bulls to regain control, 5,175 needs to be reclaimed. Until then patience over positions.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.