Bulls vs Bears — 4670 and 4710 determine gold's direction.

May 14

After the sharp decline triggered by previous CPI and PPI data, gold is now entering a clear compression phase ahead of tonight’s Retail Sales release. The market is slowing down and waiting for confirmation on whether USD strength can continue after the recent series of economic data.

The key point here is that although the short-term structure still remains inside a bearish channel on H4, gold has not broken down below the rising trendline support yet. This suggests sellers still control the broader structure, but buyers are attempting to defend the last recovery zone to avoid a deeper breakdown toward lower support areas.

From a macro perspective, the market remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data. If Retail Sales stay strong, it would reinforce expectations that the FED may keep higher rates for longer, supporting USD further. In that scenario, gold could break below the lower trendline support, confirming bearish continuation toward the 462x–460x support + fibo areas.

On the other hand, if retail data weakens, gold may see another liquidity sweep back toward the upper 47xx demand zones before the market decides on the next larger directional move. However, at this stage, the current recovery is still viewed as a technical rebound inside a broader bearish structure rather than a sustainable bullish trend.

MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues compressing ahead of Retail Sales data. If USD remains supported by strong economic numbers, gold may break below the rising trendline and extend the decline toward lower support + fibo zones.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If economic data weakens and USD loses momentum, gold could rebound short term toward the 47xx demand area before the market reacts to the next major directional setup.

LucasGrayTrading

May 14

Trade active

Main bearish scenario continues to play out as gold shows clearer signs of breaking the short-term H4 recovery structure.
After reacting from the 0.382 fibo + support zone, gold managed a technical rebound of nearly 400 pips to retest the upper trendline resistance inside the bearish channel. However, price failed to reclaim momentum above the trendline and is now continuing the downside movement again.

This confirms that the recent recovery phase remains corrective rather than a true bullish reversal. Short-term liquidity rebounds are still being sold into while the broader structure continues favoring bearish continuation.

Current focus is now on whether gold can fully break below the short-term recovery trendline and extend toward the lower fibo + FVG support zones around 463x–462x. If bearish momentum accelerates, the market could begin transitioning back toward the larger macro sell structure discussed in the weekly plan.

At this stage:

Upper trendline retest = completed
Bearish continuation = active
Main target = lower fibo + FVG zones below
Bias remains: sell rallies while price stays under the upper trendline resistance structure.

May 15

Trade closed: target reached

GOLD Plunges Sharply by 800 Pips After Breakout Confirmation

The bearish continuation scenario is now fully in effect.

After confirmation being rejected by the upper trendline resistance and failing to hold above the short-term recovery structure, gold prices have fallen sharply by nearly 800 pips.

Price has now returned to the lower descending trendline while filling the remaining FVG imbalance zones from the previous strong recovery. This confirms that the recent upward movement was primarily a liquidity recovery phase rather than the start of a sustainable bullish structure.

Currently, momentum remains bearish as long as gold prices remain below the broken recovery trendline. The market is now focused on reactions around the lower support zone + Fibonacci levels, where short-term liquidity may reappear after the sharp sell-off.

At this stage:

Bearish structure = confirmed
Recovery trendline = broken
FVG imbalance from the previous rally = largely filled
Main focus = reaction around lower Fibonacci zone + support zone
Trend remains unchanged: continue selling as long as price remains below upper channel resistance.