XAUUSD H1 Trading with Volume Profile Ahead of CPI Risk
Gold is slowing down as the market awaits news and liquidity is fragmented, so prioritize trading according to Volume Profile zones to choose advantageous entry points instead of chasing prices.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at POC and VAL zones according to Volume Profile, suitable for a medium-term perspective.
Buy zone: 4314 – 4317
SL: 4307
TP: 4328 – 4345 – 4363 – 4370
Technical context:
On H1, the price is accumulating and reacting around the value area. The 4314–4317 area is the POC and VAL zone, often a liquidity attraction point and likely to see buying pressure if the structure maintains support.
Expected movement:
Price holds the 4314–4317 zone, absorbs short-term selling pressure, then rebounds to the above TP levels. When approaching 4345, monitor reactions as this is an area prone to selling pressure.
Position management:
If the price quickly rises but fails to hold above 4328, consider reducing risk. If the price clearly breaks below 4307, prioritize stopping the buy scenario and wait for a deeper zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Sell scalping strategy at short-term resistance zone, higher risk as the larger trend still favors buying.
Sell scalping zone: 4343 – 4346
SL: 4353
TP: 4325 – 4310 – 4290
Technical context:
The 4343–4346 area is a sell scalping zone on the chart, suitable for short-term trading when the price rebounds to resistance and clear rejection signals appear.
Note:
Sell should only be a scalping order. Do not prioritize holding long sell positions if the market is still in an accumulation phase awaiting news.
MAIN REASON
Volume Profile shows that POC and VAL zones are advantageous entry points during a sideways market lacking a clear trend.
The 4314–4317 zone acts as a value support area for finding buy points, while 4343–4346 is suitable for sell scalping when the price rebounds to resistance.
When the market awaits news, the likelihood of liquidity sweeps increases, so trading by zones will be more effective than chasing candles.
MACRO CONTEXT AND CPI DATA
The upcoming US CPI release during the North American session will be the main variable guiding Fed policy expectations, directly impacting USD and gold. Ahead of data risk, dovish expectations from the Fed are causing USD to lack strong upward momentum, but volatility may spike suddenly at the time of the news release, creating spikes and sweeping SL on both ends.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not open orders when the price is between zones and has not reached the exact levels of 4314–4317 or 4343–4346.
Prioritize reducing volume before CPI or only maintain positions that are already profitable and manage tightly.
Focus on observing price reactions at POC VAL and sell scalping zones, as these are decisive points for short-term direction.
Gold is slowing down as the market awaits news and liquidity is fragmented, so prioritize trading according to Volume Profile zones to choose advantageous entry points instead of chasing prices.
PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to buy at POC and VAL zones according to Volume Profile, suitable for a medium-term perspective.
Buy zone: 4314 – 4317
SL: 4307
TP: 4328 – 4345 – 4363 – 4370
Technical context:
On H1, the price is accumulating and reacting around the value area. The 4314–4317 area is the POC and VAL zone, often a liquidity attraction point and likely to see buying pressure if the structure maintains support.
Expected movement:
Price holds the 4314–4317 zone, absorbs short-term selling pressure, then rebounds to the above TP levels. When approaching 4345, monitor reactions as this is an area prone to selling pressure.
Position management:
If the price quickly rises but fails to hold above 4328, consider reducing risk. If the price clearly breaks below 4307, prioritize stopping the buy scenario and wait for a deeper zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Sell scalping strategy at short-term resistance zone, higher risk as the larger trend still favors buying.
Sell scalping zone: 4343 – 4346
SL: 4353
TP: 4325 – 4310 – 4290
Technical context:
The 4343–4346 area is a sell scalping zone on the chart, suitable for short-term trading when the price rebounds to resistance and clear rejection signals appear.
Note:
Sell should only be a scalping order. Do not prioritize holding long sell positions if the market is still in an accumulation phase awaiting news.
MAIN REASON
Volume Profile shows that POC and VAL zones are advantageous entry points during a sideways market lacking a clear trend.
The 4314–4317 zone acts as a value support area for finding buy points, while 4343–4346 is suitable for sell scalping when the price rebounds to resistance.
When the market awaits news, the likelihood of liquidity sweeps increases, so trading by zones will be more effective than chasing candles.
MACRO CONTEXT AND CPI DATA
The upcoming US CPI release during the North American session will be the main variable guiding Fed policy expectations, directly impacting USD and gold. Ahead of data risk, dovish expectations from the Fed are causing USD to lack strong upward momentum, but volatility may spike suddenly at the time of the news release, creating spikes and sweeping SL on both ends.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING
Do not open orders when the price is between zones and has not reached the exact levels of 4314–4317 or 4343–4346.
Prioritize reducing volume before CPI or only maintain positions that are already profitable and manage tightly.
Focus on observing price reactions at POC VAL and sell scalping zones, as these are decisive points for short-term direction.
Trade active
FULL TP FOR THE BUY SCENARIO 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.