XAUUSD — Resistance now key focus

XAUUSD — Wave 5 Sell Zone Now Becomes the Weekly Decision Point

Gold is moving into next week with a very sensitive structure on the chart. The broader trend is no longer in clean expansion mode, and price is now testing a zone where the market must decide whether this is only a temporary rebound inside weakness, or the start of a deeper selloff.

For Kelly, this is not the kind of chart to chase emotionally. This is the kind of chart where structure has to lead.

Technical structure

On the chart, gold is still trading inside a large descending channel, which keeps the broader medium-term tone defensive.

The current recovery has pushed price back into the wave 5 sell zone around 4890–4920, and that area matters because it sits right under the upper half of the broader bearish structure. So far, buyers have managed to lift price into resistance, but they have not yet changed the higher-timeframe framework.

Below current price, two technical layers stand out:

4554 as the first strong support 4400 area as the next liquidity zone

Deeper than that, the chart still keeps a wider long-term target zone near 3700 on the map if the broader bearish wave sequence continues to develop.

Wave structure

From an Elliott perspective, the current rebound can be read as a recovery into a wave 5 sell area, not a confirmed bullish reversal.

That is the key distinction.

The market already printed a sharp decline, then rotated higher into resistance. When price rebounds into a mapped sell zone inside a descending channel, the cleaner interpretation is often that the market is completing a corrective phase before deciding whether to continue lower.

For Kelly, that keeps the current move highly reactive. If buyers cannot reclaim and hold above the sell zone with real momentum, then this area can become the launch point for the next leg down.

What matters next week

The weekly map is relatively clean.

Bearish scenario

If gold remains capped below the 4890–4920 resistance band and starts slipping back under local support, the chart opens room toward 4554 first. If that floor gives way, the next rotation can extend into the 4400 liquidity zone.

That path would keep the broader bearish channel intact and support the idea that the market is still trading toward a larger downside objective over time.

Bullish invalidation scenario

If buyers break and hold above the current sell zone with acceptance, then the bearish wave count weakens. That would force the market into a stronger recovery phase and delay the downside continuation.

But right now, the chart is not there yet. Price is testing resistance, not reclaiming structure.

Macro backdrop

The macro side fits this more cautious technical picture. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has recently sounded careful about easing, with officials emphasizing that rates may need to stay unchanged for longer while inflation risks remain alive. At the same time, broader Fed commentary and Beige Book-style assessments have highlighted that Middle East conflict is adding to U.S. economic uncertainty. That mix can keep gold supported on fear, but it can also delay the kind of policy relief that usually gives gold a cleaner upside tailwind.

For Kelly, that creates a market where macro uncertainty supports volatility, but not necessarily a clean bullish continuation. That is why the chart matters even more here.

Kelly’s read

This is still a resistance-led chart.

Gold has rallied into a meaningful sell zone, but it is doing so inside a broader descending channel and without fully breaking the higher-timeframe bearish framework. That keeps the upside fragile unless buyers can prove much more above current levels.

For Kelly, the cleaner view into next week is simple: as long as gold stays below the wave 5 sell zone, the path of least resistance remains vulnerable to another move lower.

Conclusion

Gold enters next week at a technical decision point. The rebound has reached the 4890–4920 wave 5 sell zone, but the broader chart still sits inside a descending channel, with 4554 and 4400 as the next major downside references if resistance holds.

The rebound is visible — but unless price reclaims structure above resistance, the chart still looks like a setup where sellers may take control again.