XAUUSD — Pullback to Fibonacci Before Bullish Recovery

Fundamental Analysis

Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For now, the market is still moving inside a technical recovery phase, but traders should avoid chasing price near the middle of the range.

The better plan is to wait for price to return to a clear value zone before looking for continuation.

Technical Analysis

On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,129 after losing short-term momentum near the current EMA area. Price is still holding above the lower recovery structure, but the market may need one more pullback before buyers step in again.

The key area to watch is the Fibonacci and liquidity buy zone around 4,056 - 4,073. This zone aligns with the previous reaction area, Fibonacci support, and short-term liquidity.

If gold drops into this zone and forms bullish rejection, the recovery scenario may continue toward the resistance and Fibonacci zone around 4,212 - 4,231.

However, if price fails to hold the buy zone, the downside may extend toward 4,001.

Important Key Levels

Current price area: 4,129

Short-term EMA reaction area: 4,110 - 4,135

Main buy zone: 4,056 - 4,073

Deeper downside liquidity: 4,001

Near resistance: 4,151 - 4,160

Main upside target: 4,212 - 4,231

Invalidation area: below 4,001

Trading Scenario

Main Buy Scenario

Entry: 4,056 - 4,073
Stop Loss: 4,001
Take Profit 1: 4,110
Take Profit 2: 4,151
Take Profit 3: 4,212 - 4,231

Buy Condition

The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,056 - 4,073 Fibonacci and liquidity buy zone. This area is important because it gives a cleaner value entry instead of buying in the middle of the current range.

A buy setup becomes more valid if price forms bullish rejection from this zone, such as a long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, higher low formation, or a clean reclaim above 4,073.

If gold reacts from the buy zone and breaks back above 4,151, the bullish recovery view becomes stronger. The next upside focus would be 4,212 - 4,231.

Alternative Sell Scenario

Entry: below 4,001 after breakdown confirmation
Stop Loss: 4,056
Take Profit 1: 3,960
Take Profit 2: 3,930
Take Profit 3: 3,900

Sell Condition

This is not the main view. A sell setup should only be considered if gold breaks below 4,001 and fails to recover the Fibonacci buy zone.

If price loses 4,001 with strong bearish momentum, the recovery structure becomes weaker and gold may continue toward lower liquidity areas.

Entry Conditions

Wait for price to test 4,056 - 4,073.

Look for bullish rejection before entering buy.

Do not chase price while it is still between support and resistance.

A break above 4,151 confirms stronger recovery momentum.

If price breaks and holds below 4,001, the buy setup is invalid.

Overall, the main view is that gold may drop first into the Fibonacci and liquidity zone before creating a stronger bullish recovery. The preferred plan is to wait for confirmation around 4,056 - 4,073, then look for continuation toward 4,151 and 4,212 - 4,231.

Do you share the same view that gold needs one more pullback before the next bullish recovery?