XAUUSD | FED leaning toward 50bps cut? | Buy strategy at support
🟡 XAU/USD – 12/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context
The probability of a FED -50bps cut next week has risen to 10.9% (from 8%), while a -25bps scenario is almost certain.
US jobless claims rose sharply → reflecting a weakening labor market, reinforcing expectations of FED easing.
Tonight (21:00): release of Consumer Sentiment & 1Y–5Y Inflation Outlook (University of Michigan) – data that could further impact the Dollar.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Dollar weakness + falling bond yields = Gold remains supported to rise. However, short-term pullbacks may appear before breaking higher levels.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone):
Weak High: 3675 – 3677 (psychological barrier)
Peak Zone: 3676 – 3680 (high test, short-term reversal risk)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone):
FVG: 3603 – 3601
Deep Harbor: 3621 – 3623
Price Structure:
On H1, Gold has repeatedly formed BoS and Equal High (EqH) around 3645 – 3650.
An FVG appears → sign that price may need to fill the liquidity gap before continuing.
Priority scenario: Pullback to 3636 or deeper 3621, then rebound towards 3675 – 3680.
If 3680 breaks successfully → opens the way for new ATH above 3700.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy FVG: 3601 – 3603 | SL: 3591 | TP: 3605 – 3610 – 3615 – 3620 – 36xx
Buy Zone: 3621 – 3623 | SL: 3612 | TP: 3640 – 3655 – 3665 – 3675 – 368x
⚡ Sell (short-term scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3675 – 3680 | SL: 3684 | TP: 3665 – 3655 – 3645 – 36xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The dovish wind from the FED continues to push the golden sails forward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3636 – 3621) is the safe docking zone for sailors to gather strength before the new voyage. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3675 – 3680) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤, but the main course is still heading North. If the 3680 wave breaks, the golden ship will extend its journey to new peaks above 3700.”
🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context
The probability of a FED -50bps cut next week has risen to 10.9% (from 8%), while a -25bps scenario is almost certain.
US jobless claims rose sharply → reflecting a weakening labor market, reinforcing expectations of FED easing.
Tonight (21:00): release of Consumer Sentiment & 1Y–5Y Inflation Outlook (University of Michigan) – data that could further impact the Dollar.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Dollar weakness + falling bond yields = Gold remains supported to rise. However, short-term pullbacks may appear before breaking higher levels.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone):
Weak High: 3675 – 3677 (psychological barrier)
Peak Zone: 3676 – 3680 (high test, short-term reversal risk)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone):
FVG: 3603 – 3601
Deep Harbor: 3621 – 3623
Price Structure:
On H1, Gold has repeatedly formed BoS and Equal High (EqH) around 3645 – 3650.
An FVG appears → sign that price may need to fill the liquidity gap before continuing.
Priority scenario: Pullback to 3636 or deeper 3621, then rebound towards 3675 – 3680.
If 3680 breaks successfully → opens the way for new ATH above 3700.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Plan
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy FVG: 3601 – 3603 | SL: 3591 | TP: 3605 – 3610 – 3615 – 3620 – 36xx
Buy Zone: 3621 – 3623 | SL: 3612 | TP: 3640 – 3655 – 3665 – 3675 – 368x
⚡ Sell (short-term scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3675 – 3680 | SL: 3684 | TP: 3665 – 3655 – 3645 – 36xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The dovish wind from the FED continues to push the golden sails forward. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3636 – 3621) is the safe docking zone for sailors to gather strength before the new voyage. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3675 – 3680) may create big waves for short Quick Boarding 🚤, but the main course is still heading North. If the 3680 wave breaks, the golden ship will extend its journey to new peaks above 3700.”
Trade active
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) – Triangle Structure & Key Zones (Weekend)Today is Friday, with only 4 hours left before the market closes. Price is still consolidating inside a tight triangle formation, signaling potential volatility before the weekly close.
Strong High: 3657 – major resistance, a breakout could extend the bullish momentum.
Near Support: 3640 – holding above keeps the bullish structure intact.
Order Block: 3632 – the final defense zone for the trend.
👉 The end of the week often brings unpredictable moves. Traders should watch these levels closely to prepare for next week.
📌 Follow for more gold analysis updates next week!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.