XAUUSD (D1) — Uptrend is intact

Mar 7

— “Uptrend is intact… but the best long may come AFTER the final liquidity sweep”

Gold is still respecting the primary bullish structure on the higher timeframe, but the correction doesn’t look “finished” yet. Price has already reacted off the 0.618 Fibonacci, and the next high-probability area the market often tests in this kind of pullback is the 0.5 Fibonacci — where liquidity tends to complete before a cleaner push higher.

What matters next week is not chasing candles. It’s letting price come into the right zone, then using lower timeframes to confirm the long.

Market context for next week
The broader trend remains bullish, but the swing structure suggests the market may still be working through unfinished liquidity below. The bounce from 0.618 is a positive sign, yet it can also be a temporary reaction before price rebalances deeper.

Key levels to focus on
0.618 has been tested and produced a response.
0.5 Fibonacci (~4,917) is the main level to watch for a higher-quality long entry.

If price reaches the 0.5 zone, the goal is to confirm that sellers are being absorbed rather than assuming a bottom.

Primary trading scenario (preferred)
Price dips into the 0.5 Fibonacci zone (~4,917) to complete the liquidity sweep, then forms a base.

Execution approach: when price taps the zone, drop to H4/H1/M15 and only look to buy after clear confirmation such as:

a sweep below the zone and a quick reclaim back above

strong lower-wick rejection inside the zone

a break of minor bearish structure, followed by a successful retest

This is the “patient long” plan — letting the market prove strength before committing.

Upside path (once the long confirms)
After confirmation from the 0.5 zone, the first expectation is a rotation back into the upper reaction area (FVG zone).
If price accepts above that reaction zone, the move can extend toward the higher target area shown on the chart (the next expansion objective).

If the market doesn’t dip (alternative scenario)
If price holds higher and reclaims the upper reaction zone without revisiting 0.5, it becomes a momentum continuation environment. In that case, the plan shifts to waiting for a pullback/retest to avoid chasing.

Invalidation / risk boundary
If price breaks below the 0.5 area and fails to reclaim, the “buy-the-dip at 0.5” thesis loses quality. That’s the point to step aside and wait for a new structure rather than forcing a long.

Mar 9

Trade active

XAUUSD (H4) — Short view: Wave (5) completion is still on the table

Gold is still following a clean Elliott rhythm here. The impulsive leg up has already printed strong expansion, and the current structure looks like the market is trying to finish the last push of wave (5) after shaking out liquidity.

The key is how price behaves around the two zones on the chart:

Reaction / supply zone (FVG) around 5,200–5,240
If price pushes back into this zone and starts to hold above it, wave (5) can extend with momentum.

Key buying zone (Fibo 0.50) around 4,913–4,920
If price dips one more time to this area, it can complete the remaining downside liquidity and set up the final leg of wave (5). This is the zone where the best long entries usually form — but only after confirmation on lower timeframes.

What would confirm wave (5) continuation

A dip into the 0.50 zone, then a sweep + reclaim (strong rejection and higher-low structure on H1/M15)

Followed by acceptance back above the 5,100–5,120 area and a clean push into the FVG

Upside path
Once the FVG is reclaimed, the next magnet becomes the prior high area, and wave (5) can stretch toward a fresh high if momentum stays clean.

Invalidation
A sustained breakdown below the 0.50 buying zone without reclaim would weaken the wave (5) continuation idea and shift focus to a deeper correction.