XAUUSD H1 Main Trend for the Weekend

Gold failed to confirm a sustainable upward momentum after yesterday's price reaction, prioritizing a short-term adjustment scenario before reassessing the trend

PRIORITY SCENARIO
Strategy to sell based on reactions at large volume areas, suitable for the current short-term structure
Focus sell area: 4332 – 4342

Technical basis: these are areas concentrated with volume according to the Volume Profile, where price is likely to show distribution reactions after a weak recovery

Expected movement: price recovers to the large volume area for distribution, then continues the adjustment phase

Daily target:
Heading towards the 4275 area, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement area and underlying support

Position management:
Sell should only be held short-term. If the price surpasses and stabilizes above 4342, risk should be reduced and avoid holding sell orders.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Monitor price reactions at deeper support areas to reassess trading opportunities

Strong support area: around 4275
Technical context: this is the convergence area between structural support and Fibonacci retracement, likely to show defensive buying force

Expected movement: if the price reacts well at this area, the market may enter a re-accumulation state

MAIN REASON
On H1, the previous upward phase failed to maintain a clear upward structure, indicating weakening buying force

Volume Profile helps identify the 4332 – 4342 areas as advantageous entry points for the sell reaction scenario

The 4275 area serves as a reasonable adjustment target in the context of a typically momentum-lacking weekend market

MACRO CONTEXT AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK

While short-term fluctuations lean towards adjustment, major institutions still maintain a positive outlook for gold in the medium and long term. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, supported by strong buying demand from central banks and positive impacts from the Fed's interest rate cut cycle.
This suggests that short-term declines may be more of a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.