Gold is rising strongly thanks to the “war premium” from US-Iran tensions, and the market almost unanimously agrees with the scenario of continuing to set new peaks. However, as the price approaches the 5550–5600 zone – HTF supply + liquidity pool – this may not be a safe buying point, but rather a distribution zone of the first half of the year's uptrend cycle.
In terms of macro context, geopolitical factors are clearly supporting gold as safe-haven flows increase. The tough statements and escalating risks in the Middle East make the market narrative lean heavily towards bullish. But remember: news is a catalyst, not a structure. When the crowd buys because of war, the premium is often already priced into the market.
On H4, the trend remains HH–HL and the price moves within an upward channel. However, the recent upward momentum has the characteristic of steep expansion – often appearing at the final phase of an upward leg. The 5550–5600 zone is a clear premium zone of the entire structure from the nearest bottom. If strong rejection occurs here, a distribution structure will begin to form.
On the H1 frame, the price has broken out of the accumulation pattern and maintains a short-term upward structure. Intraday demand around 5200–5250 is playing a role in maintaining momentum. As long as this area is protected, the intraday uptrend remains. However, if H1 forms a bearish BOS and loses 5200, the short-term structure will reverse and open up a deeper correction.
The main scenario I am watching is the reaction at 5600. If H4 cannot close firmly above this zone and a breakdown occurs below 5200, gold may enter a steep decline phase towards 5050, even 4800. With the current steepness of the upward momentum, a structural break could create a very rapid decline – a “big short” type due to two-way liquidity being drained.
Conversely, only when H4 closes clearly above 5600 and maintains structure after a pullback, will continuation be confirmed.
Current bias:
Short-term: Bullish but cautious at premium.
Mid-term: 5600 is the test zone for the first half of 2026 peak.
When the market sees a breakout, I look at liquidity.
Follow to update perspectives from macro to cash flow structure and detailed confluence zones daily. Trade with the trend, but only buy at a discount – do not buy based on emotional news.
In terms of macro context, geopolitical factors are clearly supporting gold as safe-haven flows increase. The tough statements and escalating risks in the Middle East make the market narrative lean heavily towards bullish. But remember: news is a catalyst, not a structure. When the crowd buys because of war, the premium is often already priced into the market.
On H4, the trend remains HH–HL and the price moves within an upward channel. However, the recent upward momentum has the characteristic of steep expansion – often appearing at the final phase of an upward leg. The 5550–5600 zone is a clear premium zone of the entire structure from the nearest bottom. If strong rejection occurs here, a distribution structure will begin to form.
On the H1 frame, the price has broken out of the accumulation pattern and maintains a short-term upward structure. Intraday demand around 5200–5250 is playing a role in maintaining momentum. As long as this area is protected, the intraday uptrend remains. However, if H1 forms a bearish BOS and loses 5200, the short-term structure will reverse and open up a deeper correction.
The main scenario I am watching is the reaction at 5600. If H4 cannot close firmly above this zone and a breakdown occurs below 5200, gold may enter a steep decline phase towards 5050, even 4800. With the current steepness of the upward momentum, a structural break could create a very rapid decline – a “big short” type due to two-way liquidity being drained.
Conversely, only when H4 closes clearly above 5600 and maintains structure after a pullback, will continuation be confirmed.
Current bias:
Short-term: Bullish but cautious at premium.
Mid-term: 5600 is the test zone for the first half of 2026 peak.
When the market sees a breakout, I look at liquidity.
Follow to update perspectives from macro to cash flow structure and detailed confluence zones daily. Trade with the trend, but only buy at a discount – do not buy based on emotional news.
Note
tradingview.com/x/hUPlan 02/03 – Sell Bias Confirmed | Breakdown DeliveredThe sell scenario according to Plan 02/03 has been confirmed as the price broke the short-term uptrend line and broke down from the internal supply zone. After losing the support structure, gold quickly moved to the lower Fibo cluster (0.5 – 0.618), following the logic of a deep pullback in the distribution phase.
Breaking the trendline is not just a single technical signal but a sign of phase transition: from continuation to corrective leg on H1. The previous upward momentum was rapidly expanding due to war news, and when momentum weakened at the premium zone, the sell side took advantage of liquidity to push the price down.
Current short-term structure:
H1 has formed a bearish BOS.
Price reacts at the Fibo 0.5–0.618 zone (around 5200–5250).
If it does not reclaim 5300, selling pressure remains dominant.
Next scenario:
• If it continues to stay below 5300 and breaks deeply below 5200 → potential to extend the decline to 5050 (H4 demand).
• If it bounces strongly and closes above 5300 → the breakdown may become a liquidity sweep.
Re-emphasizing the strategic view:
5600 is the HTF premium zone.
The current breakdown is the initial step for a deeper correction scenario if the structure continues to break.
Short-term: Selling prevails as long as it remains below 5300.
Medium-term: Monitor reactions around 5050–5000 to assess whether this is just a pullback or the start of a steeper decline.nOFZNv/
Note
Plan 02/03 – Sell Bias Confirmed | Breakdown Delivered
The sell scenario according to Plan 02/03 has been confirmed as the price broke the short-term uptrend line and broke down from the internal supply zone. After losing the support structure, gold quickly moved to the lower Fibo cluster (0.5 – 0.618), following the logic of a deep pullback in the distribution phase.
Breaking the trendline is not just a single technical signal but a sign of phase transition: from continuation to corrective leg on H1. The previous upward momentum was rapidly expanding due to war news, and when momentum weakened at the premium zone, the sell side took advantage of liquidity to push the price down.
Current short-term structure:
H1 has formed a bearish BOS.
Price reacts at the Fibo 0.5–0.618 zone (around 5200–5250).
If it does not reclaim 5300, selling pressure remains dominant.
Next scenario:
• If it continues to stay below 5300 and breaks deeply below 5200 → potential to extend the decline to 5050 (H4 demand).
• If it bounces strongly and closes above 5300 → the breakdown may become a liquidity sweep.
Re-emphasizing the strategic view:
5600 is the HTF premium zone.
The current breakdown is the initial step for a deeper correction scenario if the structure continues to break.
Short-term: Selling prevails as long as it remains below 5300.
Medium-term: Monitor reactions around 5050–5000 to assess whether this is just a pullback or the start of a steeper decline.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.