Fundamental Analysis
Gold is holding a stronger recovery structure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure is improving. As long as price holds above the EMA value zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains favoured.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,179 after a strong recovery from the lower structure near 3,970 - 4,020. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 are starting to turn upward, showing that buyers are gaining better control of the short-term trend.
Price has already broken above the previous EMA resistance area and is now holding above the rising EMA structure. This suggests that the recent pullback may be a continuation setup rather than a bearish reversal.
The first buy zone is around 4,132 - 4,145. This area aligns with the nearest value zone and may act as the first support if price pulls back.
The second buy zone is around 4,088 - 4,113. This is a deeper value area and also aligns with the previous breakout structure. If gold sweeps lower before reacting, this zone may offer a stronger buy reaction.
The main upside target is the Fibonacci range around 4,281 - 4,283.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,179
Buy zone 1: 4,132 - 4,145
Buy zone 2: 4,088 - 4,113
EMA support area: 4,079 - 4,145
Short-term resistance: 4,200 - 4,220
Main Fibonacci target: 4,281 - 4,283
Invalidation area: below 4,079
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,132 - 4,145
Stop Loss: 4,120
Take Profit 1: 4,200
Take Profit 2: 4,240
Take Profit 3: 4,281 - 4,283
Buy Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,132 - 4,145 buy zone. This area is important because it aligns with the rising EMA structure and the nearest value support.
A buy setup becomes more valid if price forms bullish rejection from this zone, such as a long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, higher low formation, or a clean reclaim above 4,145.
If price holds above this zone and breaks above 4,200, the bullish continuation view becomes stronger. The next upside focus would be 4,240, followed by the Fibonacci range around 4,281 - 4,283.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: 4,088 - 4,113
Stop Loss: 4,079
Take Profit 1: 4,145
Take Profit 2: 4,200
Take Profit 3: 4,281 - 4,283
Buy Condition
This deeper buy setup is valid only if gold pulls back below the first zone but still holds above 4,079. A rejection from 4,088 - 4,113 would show that buyers are still defending the larger bullish structure.
If price breaks below 4,079 and holds there, the bullish setup becomes weaker and should be reassessed.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest one of the buy zones.
Look for bullish rejection before entering buy.
Do not chase price after a strong move.
A break above 4,200 confirms stronger bullish momentum.
If price breaks and holds below 4,079, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bullish while XAUUSD holds above the rising EMA structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,132 - 4,145 or 4,088 - 4,113, then look for buy confirmation toward 4,200, 4,240, and the Fibonacci target around 4,281 - 4,283.
Do you share the same bullish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner pullback into the EMA value zone first?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.