XAUUSD: Downward Trendline Remains a Barrier for Buyers

On the H4 timeframe, XAUUSD is trading around 4,151, after a sharp decline from the upper resistance zone. Although the price shows signs of a slight rebound, overall, gold has not yet escaped its main downtrend structure. The declining trendline continues to act as a "pressure ceiling," repeatedly blocking recovery attempts by buyers.

The key point lies at the 4,300 level. This is not only a technical resistance marked on the chart, but also a convergence point with the downward trendline and the Ichimoku zone above around 4,203-4,215. As long as the price remains below these resistance zones, the current rebound is not sufficient to confirm a reversal. Conversely, it could easily become a retest, allowing sellers to re-enter the market.

The news context also doesn't really support gold. The Fed maintains its hawkish stance, the USD remains supported, and expectations of higher interest rates continue to put pressure on non-yielding assets like XAUUSD. Therefore, the sensible strategy at this time is not to buy the dip, but to wait for the price to retrace to the resistance zone to look for a trend-following sell signal.

Preferred scenario: XAUUSD retraces to the 4,260 – 4,300 region, a rejection occurs at the trendline, then continues to fall to the 4,060 support zone.

Reference strategy:
SELL: 4,260 – 4,300
SL: above 4,335
TP: 4,060

As long as XAUUSD doesn't clearly break below 4,300, sellers remain in control of the main price movement. The 4,060 area will be a key target if selling pressure continues.