Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD 27/08/2025

Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is showing reversal signals, as mentioned in yesterday’s plan. Currently, D1 is in the overbought zone, suggesting that bullish momentum has weakened and the market needs at least one corrective move to regain strength.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning bearish. We need to wait for the current candle to close for confirmation, but there is a high probability that today’s main trend will be bearish.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is in the oversold zone and preparing to turn up. If price rises into the overbought zone, then reverses bearish without breaking above 3394, there is a strong chance of a long-term decline – creating a sell opportunity.
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Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe: With current reversal signals, there are two possible scenarios:
1. Triangle abcde – as shown in previous plans.
2. Combination correction (WXY) – where wave W is a zigzag, wave X is a double zigzag, and wave Y is a triangle (as on the chart). In this case, price may decline back toward 3311.
👉 Both scenarios are valid, with no clear dominance, so continued observation is required.
• H4 timeframe: A diagonal ending triangle is forming, combined with H4 momentum turning bearish. Although we need confirmation from the current H4 close, it is clear that bullish momentum is weakening → we should look for sell opportunities in line with H4 momentum.
• H1 timeframe: According to yesterday’s plan, we expected wave 3. However, several factors suggest otherwise:
o Price corrected deeply toward 3350.
o The rebound lacked strong momentum.
o An ending diagonal triangle appeared (not typical in wave 3, as it reflects very weak buying pressure).
o RSI shows bearish divergence, further confirming weakening bullish momentum.
Altogether, these point to a likely strong and sharp decline once the pattern completes.
📌 Ideal target zone: 3387 – 3390. If the current drop is wave A or wave 1, then the rebound of wave B or wave 2 should unfold within this zone.
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Trading Plan
• Sell Zone: 3387 – 3390
• Stop Loss: 3397
• Take Profit:
o TP1: 3371
o TP2: 3350
o TP3: 3330