XAUUSD – Wave 5 forming as macro pressure lowers

Apr 14

Gold is not just moving — it’s transitioning into a late-stage impulsive structure.

Recent data shows the Fed’s unrealized losses have narrowed to $844.2B, down significantly from $1.06T. While this doesn’t directly shift monetary policy, it signals reduced systemic pressure — creating a more stable backdrop for risk assets and gold to continue trending structurally.

Market Structure & Elliott Wave

Price has completed a clean impulsive sequence from the bottom:

Wave (1) → (2) → (3) expansion confirmed
Wave (4) formed a controlled pullback within structure
Current price is developing Wave (5)

The structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the channel support.

Fibonacci Confluence

Wave (4) respected the 0.5 – 0.618 retracement zone
Current expansion aligns toward the 0.236 extension (≈ 5,100)
This level acts as a psychological + technical resistance

This confluence strengthens the probability of a final push higher before any major correction.

Key Zones

Buy Zone (Wave 5 continuation): ~4,700 – 4,750
Mid resistance: ~4,970
Final target (Wave 5): ~5,100

Scenario Planning

Primary scenario:
Price holds the buy zone → continues channel expansion → completes Wave (5) toward 5,100.

Alternative scenario:
Failure below channel support → deeper correction before continuation.

Kelly Perspective

Kelly_Koou_Gold doesn’t chase tops.
We follow structure, wave logic, and confirmation.

Wave 5 is where profits are made — but also where discipline matters most.

Apr 15

Trade active

The trend for gold remains within the bullish price channel; the wave is moving in line with our analysis. Hold onto this signal.