Macro Snapshot: The "Sticky Inflation" Pressure Gold is hovering near the 4,700 handle as the market braces for today’s Initial Jobless Claims data (May 14, 2026). While Central Bank demand remains a solid floor, the Fed’s "higher for longer" stance—fueled by energy-driven inflation—continues to cap upside potential. Remember: News is just the catalyst; the real story is how price reacts at liquidity zones.
Technical View: Compression Triangle (M30) XAUUSD is currently coiled within a very tight Compression Triangle structure:
Key Resistance: 4,709.297 – Significant liquidity is resting right above this peak.
Target Supports: 4,675.553 (S1) and the major demand zone at 4,632.463 (S2).
The Narrative: The current pullback is testing the upper supply line to gauge selling pressure. A failure to break out here would signal a high-probability Expansion move to the downside.
IF–THEN Scenarios: * Primary Path: IF price rejects the 4,709 zone and breaks the triangle floor → THEN we look for a direct expansion toward the 4,632 demand zone.
Alternative Path: IF we see a decisive candle close above 4,710 with high volume → The bearish structure is invalidated (CHoCH), and we must reassess our bias.
Execution Plan: * Entry: Waiting for LTF (M5/M15) reversal confirmation within the 4,703 - 4,709 area.
Target: 4,632.
Invalidation: Solid close above 4,712.
What’s your take? Will the Jobless Claims report trigger a legitimate breakout, or are we looking at a classic Liquidity Sweep before the dump? Drop your bias in the comments!
Technical View: Compression Triangle (M30) XAUUSD is currently coiled within a very tight Compression Triangle structure:
Key Resistance: 4,709.297 – Significant liquidity is resting right above this peak.
Target Supports: 4,675.553 (S1) and the major demand zone at 4,632.463 (S2).
The Narrative: The current pullback is testing the upper supply line to gauge selling pressure. A failure to break out here would signal a high-probability Expansion move to the downside.
IF–THEN Scenarios: * Primary Path: IF price rejects the 4,709 zone and breaks the triangle floor → THEN we look for a direct expansion toward the 4,632 demand zone.
Alternative Path: IF we see a decisive candle close above 4,710 with high volume → The bearish structure is invalidated (CHoCH), and we must reassess our bias.
Execution Plan: * Entry: Waiting for LTF (M5/M15) reversal confirmation within the 4,703 - 4,709 area.
Target: 4,632.
Invalidation: Solid close above 4,712.
What’s your take? Will the Jobless Claims report trigger a legitimate breakout, or are we looking at a classic Liquidity Sweep before the dump? Drop your bias in the comments!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.