NeerajPandey
Short

You have no idea what you're missing out

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
At the moment of writing this update our full 250% net short positions in gold , silver and mining stocks are well justified from the risk and reward perspective.

Very little happened yesterday iin case of gold and silver , yet mining stocks declined, in this way invalidating Friday's daily strength. In our past analysis, we clarified that similarly as one swallow doesn't make a mid year, a one day of quality in the mining stocks doesn't change the general propensity for them to fail to meet expectations gold . Yesterday's session seems to be a perfect confirmation. What now?

The decrease in the valuable metals segment is probably going to proceed. We wrote about it many times before and we'll most likely write it for a few more days or (more probable) weeks. Because the interruption in the USD Index is taking somewhat more, it doesn't imply that it's any less inclined to happen. The inverse is the situation of the valuable metals area. In yesterday's investigation we included various signs indicating lower PM costs in the next weeks. The only bullish sign was on Friday's strength of mining stocks with respect to gold . Furthermore, this signal was just invalidated yesterday

Miners’ Relative Weakness

Taking a look at the most recent couple of days, it's not by any means visible that there was any strength in mining stocks whatsoever. miners closed at another 2018 low, while gold and silver didn't. The miners weakness essentially proceeds, much the same as it tirelessly proceeded in 2013 preceding the greatest piece of the value slide.

With all the bearish factors set up, the standpoint remains plainly bearish . There's very little we can include based what happened yesterday.

Before summing this up, we might want to talk about the miners’ performance relative to gold in greater detail. We were requested to clarify whether the mining stocks relative valuations can be trusted constantly (it didn't appear to work exceptionally well toward the finish of 2015 and in mid 2016). That was a decent inquiry and we will be glad to explain.

Is Miners' Under-and Outperformance Always Right?

Above all else, the mining stocks' performence is something that is very helpful as a very near term reversal sign, particularly when it is joined by particular movement in silver . It's most helpful of detecting local tops. The procedure is to search for days , when mining stocks fail to meet expectations gold (the clearer the underperformance is, the more grounded the stronger the signal becomes) and during which silver outfperforms. The white metal's outperformance could be just few hours of exceptionally solid intraday or medium-term rally – that is generally enough.

In the event that there is no confirmation from silver , at that point we'd like to have other reversal signs also, before acting on the signal,the daily lack of reaction in the mining stocks with respect to gold's development is one of the more dependable short term signals, however it's not great.

The inquiry that we got wasn't generally about the short term trades, however. It was about the benefit of the major signals. For example, the ones that could affirm or refute the final bottomfor this decrease in the valuable metals division.

it turns out that the individuals who are stating that mining stocks regularly lose their use to gold before the inversion (declining to decay much while gold keeps on declining, or reviving a tad, while gold is energizing unequivocally), and the individuals who say that excavators are frequently wrong at the boundaries are both right.

What does it mean for us in the present circumstance? It implies that we shouldn't be amazed by activity that is like what we found in the late 2015 and mid 2016. Mining stocks could continue to show weakness for short then start to show strength for days (maybe even weeks if the last base happens later than in October) while gold decline, in this way blazing the last cautioning signs for those, who haven't set up for THE base yet. Be that as it may, the correct base, could be joined by the rebound of mining stocks' shortcoming.

As it were, while the mining stocks strength can be seen as "the base or bottom is coming!" sign (and a few financial specialists may like to begin aggregating the long term interests in the PM part around then), different systems and techniques should be used to determine the exact timing of bottoming and price.

Summing up, it's very likely that the pause in the valuable metals is finished and the following enormous move down is as of now in progress. The move is probably going to be sharp and the benefits on the present short position are probably going to change from being immense to being colossal and afterward at last to being crazy.

As usual, we'll keep you – our supporters – educated.
many regards-Neeraj Pandey

Our existing positions
ASSET--XAGUSD

Sell Limit Price: 14.900

Take Profit: 12.80

Stop Loss: 14.413(modified)

ASSET-GOLD

Sell limit Price: 1185

Take Profit: 1080

Stop Loss: 1231
( It doesn’t, however, mean that we won’t adjust (limit, close or even reverse) the position before this price level is reached. If we get enough confirmations other than gold’s price level itself (for instance, mining stocks show strength and silver 0.43% 0.07% 0.21% -0.07% -1.14% 0.07% -0.53% 0.13% -0.13% -0.06% -0.26% -0.19% -0.06% reaches a very important support level , while the USD reaches a key resistance), then we might do it, just like we’ve done previously (which ultimately caused the short position to be more profitable).
Trade active: we are securing more profits in silver, please adjust your stop loss level@14.330

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Comments

nice idea! here is my view on XAUUSD:
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