The market enters one of the most important trading sessions of the month as both the weekly and monthly candles are set to close. Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance, while recent U.S. economic data continues to indicate that inflation remains resilient. As a result, institutional capital has yet to rotate decisively away from the U.S. Dollar, limiting Gold's upside despite intermittent buying interest.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains capped beneath the H2 descending trendline, where Demand, Fibonacci, and dynamic trendline resistance converge around 4095–4105. Multiple recovery attempts have failed to produce a confirmed breakout, suggesting that sellers continue to defend this key institutional resistance zone. As long as price remains below this structure, the broader bearish narrative remains intact and rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than trend-changing.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Gold continues to be rejected below 4095–4105, selling pressure could extend the decline toward the 4040–4030 support area. A decisive break below this zone may expose the psychological 4000 level.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim 4105 with a confirmed breakout above the H2 descending trendline, Gold could extend its recovery toward the 4120–4130 resistance zone before encountering fresh supply.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
As today marks both the weekly and monthly candle close, volatility may increase significantly with the potential for liquidity sweeps in both directions. Reducing position size, avoiding emotional trades, and waiting for confirmed price action are likely to be the most prudent approaches. Capital preservation should take priority over chasing opportunities during high-volatility sessions.
LucasGrayTrading
From a technical perspective, Gold remains capped beneath the H2 descending trendline, where Demand, Fibonacci, and dynamic trendline resistance converge around 4095–4105. Multiple recovery attempts have failed to produce a confirmed breakout, suggesting that sellers continue to defend this key institutional resistance zone. As long as price remains below this structure, the broader bearish narrative remains intact and rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than trend-changing.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If Gold continues to be rejected below 4095–4105, selling pressure could extend the decline toward the 4040–4030 support area. A decisive break below this zone may expose the psychological 4000 level.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim 4105 with a confirmed breakout above the H2 descending trendline, Gold could extend its recovery toward the 4120–4130 resistance zone before encountering fresh supply.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
As today marks both the weekly and monthly candle close, volatility may increase significantly with the potential for liquidity sweeps in both directions. Reducing position size, avoiding emotional trades, and waiting for confirmed price action are likely to be the most prudent approaches. Capital preservation should take priority over chasing opportunities during high-volatility sessions.
LucasGrayTrading
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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Clear scenarios for better decision-making
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👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.