This is a System I have developed after months of case studies to trace a map when price reach Buying Climax (BC) on a Wyckoff Distribution System or just a simple BC.
I'm pretty sure that all of you have wondered sometime where do the measures come from after BC and where will the price could go. Well if you have never asked that question maybe this is the moment, and if you do, this is the possible answer.
This study and research i have been doing is based in the study of Fractals or Harmonics that takes place in trading. Measures are done using Fibonacci Retracement tools and with the help of Chuvashov Fork System to verify some of the stages after Wyckoff Distribution System.
I usually use Cypher tool for representations as you could probably have seen in previous analysis. If you have not, i invite you to take five minutes of your time and check other analysis (like XAUUSD for instance). But i believe this will be an easier way to visualize it. It is not easy to detect fractals at simple view since they may vary in different time frames.
Take in count that if one of the points are broken, it probably means that the fractal in Stage 0 could have been miss calculated, or the time frame is not the right one, or as simple as it has been a mayor change in market due external causes.
I would try to use this case on XBTEUR as a sample to explain how it works along time.
I hope this helps you out on your tradings and gives you a little bit more of knowledge about Harmonics, Fibonacci Retracement, Chuvashov Fork, Wyckoff and other systems and tools, all combined in one.
Cheers!
Charter X
PS: I leave you the first snapshot to keep track.
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Hello again,
I got some free time to update this and give a little bit more of information about it. I will explain everything step by step and discuss different study cases where i have applied this system and the result of it.
After i made the first post i wanted to kill myself (no in the literal sense of word lol), cause i forgot a small detail, and a really important one. It is safe to leave a margin of 3-5 days after the price reach the UTAD during the Distribution.
I recommend this because it is safe to study and analyze what would be the right time frame to follow.
When i posted the first time, i was working on a 1H time frame, and right the moment i posted, the price fell down (probably you were expecting to go up instantly). Do not worry, it will... but it takes time and patience (lot of it).
I've found this part where i've made most of the mistakes when applying the system, because at the beginning it seems you are looking at some point of the harmonic and results you were in other one, that probably is gonna take longer (which make sense because the fractal is in expansion). Or since you are moving in a more angled channel, then the drops takes more time, etc. So again, leave 3 to 5 days of margin. I know it is hard to control the emotions, but as traders that's something important to learn lo survive.
So in this particular case (not the best one due the circumstances of XBT at this point where strange things happens lol), the right time relation to keep track is 15 mins / 1H Chart.
Im leaving you the updated chart with my analysis and the 2 screen picture to compare the fractals in right time frame so you may follow me.
Again, Fractals are similar and not equals, and one more important thing i forgot to mentioned before:
*** This are not trading advaice! This is a personal System i have developed and Use as your own Risk! ***
So, having mentioned that let's begin:
And so you can understand things better, the 2 screens with different Time Frames:
On top at 15 mins is the Stage X, and on bottom at 1 hour is Stage 1. We just had the Chuvashov Fork top part, that would give us confirmation and reduce risk on when to switch to a long position and give us major profits ;)
At this point, if you notice, we do not have to much extreme peaks or variations in price. This is because price is consolidating, so take that in mind for your take profit or stop loss positions.
This is all the time i have right now, sadly cause i would love to keep sharing and explaining but, i promise ill do it eventually.
Keep checking every time in a while if you are interest in this, i promise ill get back to you as soon as possible. Any comments are welcome to! :)
Cheers!
Charter X
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Hi again,
Just wanted to make a little update and correction since i was starting to see that the prices has been consolidating a lot, and i saw a few signals on RSI behavior that is repeating again.
As you may see, The fibonacci retracement of numbers section is different from the one i had, so you may want to have a look at that. Fractal remains but again, similar and going faster now.
If i'm correct, the uptrend should happen in the next couple of days, starting tomorrow i believe.
Price target has changed as well. Now is around 9675 euros.
Ill keep you updated.
Cheers!
Charter X
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Hi again,
Again, on mistake in taming and could have cost me to switch earlier the drop. It kill my take profit but does not matter. All profit is good lol.
So, The drop was in fractal but did not pay attention in other time frame. Here's the update, and worked well to do a long and back to short again.
Happy trading ! ;)
Charter X
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Ok,
Obviously this was a bad time to do this example or tutorial. Why will you ask? Well, symple:
We were doing this at the end of a Wyckoff, but it was worth to try it out since it was a mini Wyckoff.
Actually im glad it happened so that's the best way to show when to use it and when not to use it and to remember to see the overall instead the magnifying glass.
So, for now ill stop with this sample and ill prepare another samples i already have or we could use this same XBTC but since the real Buying Climax and apply everything from there to see what could come next. Ill prepare the material and come back to you :)
Have a safe trading since we are at the chaos zone right now lol..
Cheers!
Charter X
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Ups, just noticed i shared a link of Chart lol! My bad... this is what i ment:
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Ok... im tired... forgive me >( grrr one more last time lol:
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FINALLY!!!! jajajaj there should be an edit or delete for this lol ... ok... Better rest jajaja
Hi.
I enjoyed your method. Based on my experiences gradually one like that came in my mind.
Is it similar?
updated one is this
Want to talk with you more about this. liked your XAUUSD chart but have comments on it...
CharterX
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@mhparsa, Hi! there, thanks for sharing and comment!. Hmm not sure if it is similar, more than the abc and numbers lol :P i just used those letters and numbers cause people are more used to that and to mark some similar parts of stage in fractal itself or where the sentiment in marked its really close to previous one... but, never use them for me lol jeje i go by eye :P .. but is a good habit to put them or at least any mark to explain somebody else or so you do not get loss at some point after seeing lot of bars lol.. This system is to analyse the fractal formed from BC to UTAD, cause that same fractal will repeat again in downtrend. So it is more to know that fractal, where do the measures come front so you may place your take profits, where to do short or where to do long orders. Again thanks for sharing, really interesting what you got there. Maybe it is similar to my line system for stages in parabolic movements or wyckoff, i do it other way though, but as i can see, in your charts, that really helps you to know the stages from accumulation to BC.
I just updated graphic if you are interested, and again, ill explain later on when i have more time, so stay tuned ;)
Cheers!
DarkWaveHunter
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@CharterX,
Hi.
Actually the word similar wasn't appropriate for comparing our methods. I wanted to note that the near targets of this method you use is similar to one that I use with Gann or Fibo Fans (GF, FF) along with Elliott Waves (EW) count. I used CF (chuvashov fork) instead of GF in this chart that is another version of the one in my last comment:
This could be for using VP (volume profile) too, I use it as a confirm of SAR levels and also the whole trend analysis. Any way when price shift fans in GF of FF, it's like a CF's line break. What is matter is putting Fans properly and correctly in the trends. Both of them has similar philosophy behind (rooted in Daw Theory or Wyckoff and ...)
Well what is challenging here? The idea that this patterns repeats is correct. but the repeated patterns aren't unique, they are diverse and we are living in a world with butterfly effect too (I saw your 2M time-frame charts). A little shift here would make great shifts in gold price, lets say till 2022 for instance.
Your method is very detailed and works good. I don't believe that simplicity is always a good thing.
I'm testing this setup and tools that you use and trying a mixture of them. Got interesting results by far and gonna share the ideas soon ;)
CharterX
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@CharterX, Hi there, oh ok now i understand better when you said similar, and yes agree with what you say. Fractals, harmonics or patterns call it as you want, they are not exact, just a guide. Depending on the sentiment in the market it could be angledto the downtrend or uptrend. Thanks for the comments and im glad you find it detailed and good. Lot of people tell me that to much lines, or to much data, that i should keep things simple. Actually this is simple for me, to draw it and understand it so jajaj i just smile every time the say that. I preffer a good detailed and supported theory than guessing ranges, that's like play to the lotto. Im glad you found it a good use in conjunction to your own tools to have good results :) have another one that could help you out as well, ill post it when i have the right time. Please let me know when you share the ideas. Really looking forward to have a look. :) and whenever you would like to talk about this stuffs just give me a msg. Cheers and keep the good work up!
CharterX
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@mhparsa, Ps: i would be glad to talk about it and sure thing, pls fell free to comment about XAUUSD
I enjoyed your method. Based on my experiences gradually one like that came in my mind.
Is it similar?
updated one is this
Want to talk with you more about this. liked your XAUUSD chart but have comments on it...