Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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1019/5000 Autumn is the harvest season. After spring sowing and summer plowing, bitcoin has its own autumn harvest season. If the layout at the beginning of the year, theoretically in July you really harvest full, after the summer correction, then what kind of trend will it be? Let's take a look at the current situation:
In the end of August, K line presented a double star, obvious stagflation trend, especially after a big wave of market, of course, here is the top is still early, because there is no panic selling pressure, there is no long Yin broken position. Simply looking at the combination of K line, there are two interpretations. One is the arrangement on the way, the price rises a lot, adjust it and wait for the average line. We also see that ma6 is ready to help, currently waiting around 8980. The other is to build a top, a long and short game state, finally below ma6, long to leave.
For the above two interpretations, the K line trend in September, will be the key. If the negative line, below the ma6, then the bulls are in trouble; A break above the previous high of $14, 000 is a sign that the bears have given up completely.
So we will be very careful in this month, but this is the winner to decide the trend of this year and next year, so everyone should be patient and not rush to operate.
From the perspective of the big shape, I have analyzed in May that this may be the trend of a super B. The logic is very simple. There is also discussion in the original article for your reference
If it is a super B wave, then this will be the top of the stage, so now rush to get into the long, the risk can be imagined; If this is cattle back, then you wait for the breakthrough before the high entry, at any time is only 40% of the profit. Does that speak for itself?
If you leave at the end of July, which is in theory a very good position, the question of whether you can buy back at the low point is not the core issue. People who hold bitcoin for $3,200 don't necessarily get $13,000. We look at the current position, can be said to be a trend unknown state, the daily and weekly line may be on the way down, at this time, we suggest that at least one level of the long trend in the daily line after the formation of the market trade. That makes sense.
Strategy: if you don't break the daily line ma144, wait for the daily line level macd gold fork and start building positions. However, before the end of September, or breakthrough before the high, are not recommended heavy warehouse. Even for cash, you need to set a stop loss, and of course, if you can use hedging tools, that's the perfect trade. The biggest reason retail investors lose money is that they don't know how to stop losses.