Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Description
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During the run from 5.8 to 6.2k there were substantially less margin longs on Finex, averaging in the range of 20-24k as opposed to 30-35k on the way from $4900. General bullishness, velocity, price action, and confidence in the current situation has come to a taper. It's like the end of a party when you aren't that drunk anymore, are pretty tired, someone threw up, they turn the music off and the lights on, and tell everyone that you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.
The volume, momentum, and time we took to get here has reached a feverish pitch. How do we get to $6,500 and $7,500 under current velocity? It seems as hard as trying to climb the last few thousand meters of Everest.
The reality is the pattern we are within since the original bump to $5800 is a rising wedge. The pattern at $5900 - $6200 was an ascending channel, which brokedown, and formed an even steeper ascending channel, which is quickly running out of steam, volume, and momentum. It is already within the oversold area of Willy21 while price can barely hold $6000, and WWV shows that all those coins that were bought on the way up are like an avalanche waiting to be triggered.
We closed the 4H, 12H, and Weekly candles below $6,000. The pump ran out of steam and things are quiet. This is not a good sign. In order to maintain parabolic price movement and gains you must maintain parabolic volume. With the majority of the market losing money every movement, that is exceedingly more and more difficult.
What goes up, must come down. OBV indicates that the upward momentum is genuinely having an exceedingly difficult time
The terrifying reality of where we are right now is we visited $5100 only 4 days ago. If this pattern breaks down and falls through the cloud the real panic will first have a chance to bounce at $4850-$4950, our previous ATH. Failing that we will be facing prior resistance line at the $4,600 range.
In my opinion, it is exceedingly difficult for Bitcoin to maintain its Northern movement without a shakeout and a reset.
FOMO is your enemy. Remember, this is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a raging long-term bull, but it cann't go straight up.
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5620ish should be where the hope for a local bounce with a run to $6300-$6400 is rather than where I have it.
Sorry for the ugly chart. Scrolling in and out left some things in odd places, although that price line was just my bad.
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Here's where we're at at the moment with a solid dump being fired:
First nuke detected. In my opinion, it's a stop hunt. Volume on those dumps were actually quite low on Finex. I believe we'll see a bit more stop hunting before the nukes really come.
Shorting comes with considerable risks here. It is Bitcoin and Bitcoin can do anything. A real breakout to 6.5k _is_ possible here, so set a stop.
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Turns out there never was a pump past high 6k and so far this has played out like something of an anemic pattern breakdown:
Not looking good. Be weary of buying the dips, but it is curious that we've only dipped this far.
We could see a slow slide for a while and a smaller run up to make people forget where we are before real dumps begin.
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Perhaps my original read was clairvoyant and just wrong on timing. Finex conveniently Tweeted that they'd be releasing a Bitcoin Gold Chain Split Token:
Watch for a breakout in the purple box and be _very careful_ of bull traps.
I've read from others that when btc dumps then Alts will pump. If there is panic with btc, I can't see Alts increasing as btc drives the market. So, as i see Alts down, like xrp, should this be time to move out and hold cash.
RiversAndMountains
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@Ginossim, You have to be careful what you read around here. Because there's a lot of conflict of interest. I can't remember a single time in the last 3 months where BTC dumped hard and alts went up in any sense besides BTC ratio.
One should never panic. If you liquidate your core position and it bounces you will buy back in at a loss.
If you are worried. Sell say 25-50% of your position on the next bounce and resolve to buy back above $6,100 if it reverses.
imkeshav
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Thank you!. What happens to the alts if Bitcoin has a major correction? For example:- BCH is already pretty low and as you mentioned could be a buy for long term. However, if Bitcoin crashes will it take the entire market with it even though some of the alts are underpriced now.