XTIUSD Forecast

📰 Fundamental Backdrop

• []The headline that mattered: the US said it intercepted a surprise Iranian attack on US troops across the Middle East, and Trump publicly threatened Iran with a beating if it happens again. []That's on top of an already active list of disruptions. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended Black Sea loadings again after two associated tankers were attacked overnight, and Hormuz talks between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Oman are ongoing but unresolved, with Tehran insisting on keeping control of the strait. []US crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels in the week to July 24, and API data showed another 3.3 million barrel draw more recently, both pointing to real tightness underneath the headline volatility. []World oil output remains roughly 9.4 million barrels a day below pre war levels, with supply on track to average 3.7 million barrels a day lower in 2026, contingent on a de escalation that looks less likely after this week.
• This is the same underlying conflict pressuring my gold posts, just running with its usual direct, bullish for oil logic instead of the inflation side channel that complicates the gold read.

🎯 Levels That Matter

• []Recent peak: 86.30 []Head and shoulders neckline, key level: 85.50 []Current zone: 83.00 to 83.50 []Pattern support if neckline breaks: 82.00
• Deeper support: 78.60, this week's low