Reason why I am bearish on 10Y T-Note

#ZN1! #10YearTNote #Weekly #CBOT
- I took a deep look into the 10-year Treasury Note, futures commodity. The chart above is weekly.
- In Elliott Wave Theory perspective, an assumption has been made that the bullish wave starting from the swing low at 117’13’5 to the swing high at 140’20’0 as am impulsive 5-3-5-3-5 zig zag wave structure.
- With that said, I am weighing more on the possibility that the bullish wave from 130’25’0 to 135’15’0 is an 5-3-5 ABC corrective phase and this scenario becomes a bit more solid if bottom of the blue channel fails supporting.
- While expecting another corrective wave, a major confluent zone to keep an eye on is the red circle on the chart. This is where an inner downward trendline, a neckline (green trendline), and 0.382 retracement level overlaps.
- However, entering long here seems quite risky considering the RR ratio. Also, if the potential neckline (green trendline) breaks below, I am way more bearish expecting widening/broadening pattern.
- Those aggressive traders willing to take the risk here (buying at red circle), make sure to set a tight stoploss. I would rather be patient and wait until the price action gets confirmed and enter short if the trendline fails supporting.
- Here are some of the decent areas to enter long position if the H&S case is likely after observing failure of support at the neckline: 128’5~129’5 and 124’9~125’9.

Comment:

Sorry. Let me correct the units.
Here are the supports:
128.5~129.5 = 128' 16' 00~129' 16' 00
124.9~125.9 = 124' 29' 00~125' 29' 00