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24 Apr 2024– Neutral and Out of steam, what is next? Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels." Another flat day, but the options premiums were not behaving as usual. The blame may be on VIX as the premiums were dead low that even a small 50+ points move created a huge skew between the Put and Call prices. India vix staying @ 10.2 levels is not a good sign for professional options traders as a small move will upset the premiums. A better alternative is you use spreads like credit/debit spreads - buy a strike, sell strike+1 etc, so that the premiums move in tandem and the volatility contraction may not impact that much. But I assume most of the Algos may not have spreads as the core strategy, to begin with. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for. Algos ended up gaining Rs5496 today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
3 Apr 24 Nifty50, VIX collapsing 20% means Advantage Bulls!Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short." Nifty was perfectly neutral today after the opening candle. Since RELIANCE declared its quarterly results yesterday, we expected profit bookings on that counter. The mega gap-up and then cooling off on N50 was much attributed to RELIANCE's price action. Once N50 found support at yesterday's close, it decoupled itself from both RELIANCE and HDFCBANK price action. N50 was in green even when both the stocks were in red, that is not something we see usually. India VIX crashing almost 20% was another shocker for the Bears. Whenever we have dips, the Bears are unable to really punch a way through. The markets come back stronger than before and usually hit a newer top. A crashing VIX is advantage Bulls as it shows the uncertainty falling. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels. --- Nifty50 algos ended the day with profits of Rs12729 mostly due to the narrow range maintained by the index today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
23 Apr 24 - BankNifty, deadly opening candle & then flat dayBankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️ BN had a flat day too but not after a deadly looking opening candle. If you look at the charts, it is more or less a replica of what happened yesterday. BN shows it is taking a breather after the recent run. Not falling off from the current levels is an advantage Bulls. Just like we mentioned yesterday, 48103 is an interim resistance, but not a strong one. To take out the ATH, all we need is a slight push. BankNifty Algos ended the day with gains of Rs16071, but not after taking some MTM losses in the earlier part of the day. Once BN started trading flat, the profits started coming in.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22 Apr - Nifty50 gets a stance change, not bearish - but neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral." Nifty snaps out of bearishness by breaking the 22295 resistance. Even though we had an unusual gap-up, we ended up almost closing it by 09.47. However, the Bears were not able to drive down the prices further indicating a lack of conviction.  Nifty spent considerable time at the 22295 zone, visible from the blue encircled region before breaking out at 14.39. Just think about it, N50 came from 21777 to 22375 today in just 2 sessions, close to 600 points. The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short. 22519 would be an interim resistance on the upside above which we would like to go long. --- Algo trading - ended up losing 6003 on N50 algo trades today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
2 Apr– Nifty50 - 4 RED Candles, first real sign of reversal?Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️ Recap from yesterday: "As I write this article, SPX, NDQ, and DJI are down over 1.1%. A spillover effect is definite but because we have a holiday tomorrow, we might have another day of US stock market action left to react." The first real sign of a breakdown. US CPI came in hot due to which the markets reacted pretty badly on Wednesday. Thursday the markets gained back some points, but I strongly think the fall in our markets had more to do with the "Iran - Israel" tensions than inflation. The reason I am saying that is because after the gap-down open, we made a swing low but then recovered nicely from 09.43 to 12.07. From 12.07 to close we lost 192 points ~ 0.85%. We changed the stance from Bullish to Neutral as soon as 22689 levels were breached. Ideally, we should have changed the status to bearish as the afternoon momentum was quite good. The only reason we did not do that was to check if the reaction was a little too much, if we continue to maintain the same momentum on Monday - we will look out for bearish opportunities. On the higher time frame, we have a double top formation (M pattern). To negate the pattern we would have to take out the ATH, otherwise, it looks like a nice setup to go bearish. 22519 is a good interim support level, the main support comes only at 22295. I started Algo trading on Nifty50 today and ended the day with a gain of Rs9465. Exited prematurely at 09.44 as soon as the markets started to crack.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12 Apr - BankNifty was not that bearish, but a HH is formed.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️️ BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty50 today, we opened -244pts as gap-down, and the first candle itself was a strong green candle which gave the impression that the Bears may lose control. The follow-up action was good enough and we retested the swing low by 09.47 giving some hope, but again the markets started recovering till 12.11. I was posting in our trader's chat group that if we stay like this the short covering will come in and we may end up going up and that is exactly when the 2nd round of selling came in. In the second leg, we lost another 311 points ~ 0.64%. On the 63mts TF, BankNifty ended up creating the higher high. To know if the bullish trend is at threat or not - we should take out the support of 47465 soon, but that is around 1000pts away. We would like to start Monday with a neutral stance and then take it up from there. --- BankNifty Algo trades ended with a gain of Rs7735. Prematurely exited at 09.44 sensing the markets were beginning to crack.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
14 Feb ’24 — BankNifty takes out the resistance and goes neutralBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty does the impossible today, the reason we are saying this is because, despite a UP day yesterday, BN was unable to get past the resistance of 45399. See what happened today - we opened gap-down and by 10.55 we were back at the resistance level of 45399. The rejection made sense then as the mood was still bearish and little we did know what the remainder of the day had in store. The elongated encircled region is when BN was still negotiating in and around the SR level. Once it got past that - the next test was at the purple descending trend line (which we drew yesterday). That was also kind of accurate as on 3 instances we had a contact. 4mts chart The climb of 670pts from 14.07 to 14.39 made all the difference today. It drove our algo into a tailspin and ensured that we booked the highest intraday loss till now. You might already know most algos prefer to play straddle or strangles and today being the expiry day created more trouble. The calls when sold were damn cheap and when the stop loss got hit - it appreciated more than 100 to 200%. Yesterday we pointed out the unusual skew in the PUT and CALL premiums, the calls staying cheap. Today we fell victim to that. 63mts chart We have another W pattern today and since the resistance is breached, it is a good sign for the bulls. Overall our stance is now revised to neutral from bearish. What is more interesting is that BN has a perfect at-par close with the last expiry i.e. 7th Feb. The first thing we will be looking out for tomorrow is to see if there is follow-up buying or whether what we witnessed today was just a blip. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 11805.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
07 Feb ’24 — BankNifty needs to go above 46800 for stance changeBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Unfortunately, BankNifty has not gotten a stance upgrade yet, we still are in neutral territory. Only if we get past 46800 - the stance can be revised. Our opening minutes were almost there ~ 46062 levels but we quickly lost ground. In total, we gave up 439pts ~ 0.95% from the highs - but this was not scary or unusual - it is just that a single 4mts candle at 11.31 stands out, it took out 109pts ~ 0.24%. 4mts chart Till then BankNifty was looking quite okay with a gradually falling bias, that candle would have woken up the straddle sellers as their stop losses would have hit. If they kept the other leg open till the last minute, quite sure that would have given a scare too. Finally, we ended the day positively with a net gain of 127pts ~ 0.28%. The intraday day recovery of 317pts really helped BN gain back its lost ground to an extent. 63mts chart Between the last expiry and today - we have just lost 0.12% ~ 53pts which is not significant at all. But what is more important is that the support of 45399 is defended properly. As we drew the IH&S yesterday - we need a close above 46800 for strong bullish momentum to pick up and most likely that should help us take out the 47465 resistance as well. Will it happen tomorrow? Not sure. Will it happen in the next expiry? We would like to place our bets. Algo Trading Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with gains of 8204 rupees. The 11.31 stunt took away some gains, but we gained back the lost ground as further trades were not violent.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
BHARTI AIRTEL : ALGO SIGNAL DEMOSTRATIONHOW TO FOLLOW ALGO SIGNAL: Deciding buy/sell 1.Strictly use only on 1 hour time frame. 2.Wait for a ‘X’ sign before mind make up. A red ‘X’ means look for selling opportunity , a green ‘X’ means look for buying opportunity. Taking a position: 3.Wait for an arrow before entering into any position. A red arrow on upside of a bar pointing downward means open short position. A green arrow below the bar pointing upward means open buy position. 4.NOTE: Only after the the signalling of X , look for arrow. Do not buy/sell if you see any arrow before the signal of X. 5.STOP LOSS should be the most recent swing high/low or most recent STRONG CANDLE’S high/low. While maintaining the position : 6.The small triangles after the each bar completion tells you to hold the position. The red triangles appearing upside on the bar tells you to hold the short position, whereas the green triangles appearing below the bars tells you to hold the long position. Exiting the position: 7.After you create a buy position , if you see a green arrow above any bar pointing downward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter. 8.Similarly, after you create a sell position , if you see a red arrow below any bar pointing upward, then you should either book partially/leave the position for sometime. You will get another signal to re-enter. 9.While being in position if you see any X signal which is opposite of your trade , then leave your position immediately. 10.When you see a big red circle dot then you must exit all your short positions. Contrary , when you see a big green circle dot , you must exit all your long positions. And then wait for a X-signal. No Trading Zone: 11.When you get frequent X-signals in green-red-green-red & that too very close, then its means that stock is going to form a range. One should wait for the range break & move away to another stock. (THIS IS WHERE YOU WILL REQUIRE A PRACTICE TO IDENTIFY THE RANGE)
NSE:BHARTIARTLEducation
by TradingSutra
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