Algotrading

Day 31 of Live Algo Day Trading Journal Day 31: Day opened bullish, my stock opened and immediately ran up to its high point. Algo did not trigger as it is deisgned to get in on a pullback. Got an entry; market tried to cheat but could not succeed and was saved. However later on the market cheated and threw me out with a minor profit. Algo again got triggered but in the wrong direction, suffered small loss. Third time algo got triggered but came out at parity. Progress : Did not do any manual trade today even when felt like taking a bullish position manually(in hindsight looks like I was correct), but idea is to build the habit of only algo trading, no manual trading, so good, did not get into temptation.

04:59

Day 30 of Live Algo Day Trading Journal Day 30: Made a mistake today. Market was bearish in the morning and algo took a position which went on to be incorrect. Again algo took another position and this also turned out to be a loss making trade. After the fall over last few days, I was bullish while the algo signals were all bearish. So, after two wrong trades by my algo, I thought let me take the next trade manually and I went long. Market punished and threw me out. Then again I took two more trades (even when algo was quiet and did not give any signal), made up the loss that I had made in my manual trade. Overall, a loss making day, losing bit less than 1%, but the worst part was losing my patience and getting overconfident on my skills. Bad idea. Setback: Manual trade.... i think due to getting overconfident by looking at the chart, getting influenced by a certain call, bad impact...

05:07

Day 29 of Live Algo Day Trading Journal Day 29: Good day today. After falling for almost week, market took a breather and the bulls tried to put a stop to selling. My algo got me into a bullish position in the morning and the momentum gave me my target pretty soon. Had to be away so did not trade later on, but the algo did very well on paper trades. Had a not so good day yesterday and was not feeling good yet continued with the algo without touching it during the day, turned out to be a wise decision. Progress: Overcame the sadness of losing yesterday and did not do any manual trade, let the algo run its course.

03:59

08 May 2024 - Banks and IT were in RED, but Nifty closed flat BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BN was unable to defend the 48115 support resistance today and it was an advantage Bears. The overall price action was neutral and that might be related to the expiry trades. There were a couple of instances where BN moved 100+ pts in minutes - this really had an impact on the algo trades, but happy that major damage was not done. Both BN and NiftyIT closed the day in the RED, whereas Nifty50 ended the day flat. If IT is also going the banks' way, we might have further downsides. For tomorrow, I wish to hold on to the Bearish view and then go neutral if we spend considerable time above 48101. The algos did pretty well today and ended up generating a whopping profit of 54085 INR.

Day 27 of Live Algo Day Trading Journal Day 27: Another trending day. Algo gave good entry and exit, perfect as per coding. Progress : No chasing/FOMO/anxiety (well almost) Learning : Need to chase profit and not let it slip away, market is supreme and smartest of all. Money is more important than getting the math right. Will chase with TSL manually when putting a stretch target.

06:31

07 May 2024 - BankNifty stance changed to Bearish, more cuts ???BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BankNifty also fell in a single legged manner right from the open till 11.35. The fall totally unchecked by the Bulls and in a way came as a surprise as the BTFD people usually do not let the markets fall in this fast and furious manner. BN showed more weakness than N50, partly because NiftyIT was in great GREEN shape today. At a specific point, BN was down 1% and NiftyIT was up 0.9% - a stark contrast. BN ended up breaking the 48661 levels we discussed yesterday and hence we changed the stance from neutral to bearish. The next level to watch out for is 48115 and then the critical support comes at 47465. Since global markets are staying green, the FII selling in our markets could be related to political uncertainty due to the ongoing elections. BN algos ended the day with gains of 12741 INR. The bulk of the gains started coming in only after 11.39.

07 May 2024 - Going short on Nifty50 as 22295 violated, 🐻🐻🐻Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: "Our markets not rallying as against the recovery in US markets - speculating something to do with the re-election and taxation. Since I do not have any data points, will wait for more clarity." After having an inline opening, Nifty50 started falling quite aggressively. Without a real struggle, 22295 was taken out in the first attempt itself. By 11.39 we fell almost 269pts ~ 1.2% and that too without any retracement. The moment the support was breached, we had to revise our stance from neutral to bearish. Unfortunately, we did not have further bearishness today, and by going short it may appear that we did not get any benefits today. Normally when critical support is broken, it means we should have further follow up action shortly. Also in the 63mts TF we did not really break it, if you are a conservative trader, it is a good idea to wait for one full candle to form below 22295. When you look at the higher time frame, N50 trading between 22295 and 22051 is detrimental to the inverse H&S formed between 14th to 26th March. If the next support of 22051 is broken, then we might even have to remove that candlesticks pattern. Despite a sharp move today, N50 algos made 10417 INR today thanks to the India VIX that rose to 17% levels.

Day 26 of Live Algo Day Trading Journal Day 26: It turned out to be a good trending day today. Right from the morning the market decided to fall and kept falling. Yesterday I had tweaked my algo to take entry on pullback. Unfortunately, the morning pullback was not strong enough to get me a signal, so missed the morning trade. However, algo caught the afternoon pullback and gave me a good profit of around half a percent. Internet consistency is an issue which is pestering me since long (now I realise that its this thing which made all my algos go wrong when I used to subscribe to other algo developers/websites). Will have to do something to raise an alarm or a flag whenever there is a drop in internet. This drop made me take two manual decisions - one to get out when I saw that all the exit levels were broken and yet I was not getting any signal (that's when I realised that the data is not coming) and second time when algo did take the entry (because of wrong data), and then I got anxious as there wasn't enough time left and thought that the market might reverse as everyone would start closing their positions. Progress : stuck to algo and let it run its course Setback : Took manual decisions and got panicky/anxious when there wasn't enough time left.

07:10

Day 25 of LiveAloDayTradingJournal Day 25: Another Monday after a weekend, however, now I don't feel the pressure of being wrong because I was out of sync with the market due to the weekend holiday. Now it seems the faith on the system is taking over and the thought never occured to me that its Monday. I just let the system figure out the signals and let it work. I just sat in front of it and just kept an eye on if the connection is still there and the internet data is flowing. Rest... the algo to decide. Algo worked very well giving me the correct entry and exit signals and made a good half a percent today. Progress : Faith getting better, anxiety gone, no panic/fear, no FOMO even when I can see the signals where I could have got in manually, yet did not take any manual positions, no emotional upsurge of taking manual position.

05:59

Day 24 of LiveAlgoDayTradingJournal Day 24 of DayTrading: Let the algo run from morning. Did not tinker with it the whole day. Algo gave correct signals, however the market volatility got me and took away my profits. During the day, had the feeling that now I shoud stop the algo since I was in profit of >1%, however, let it run as I need to develop faith on my algo. Overall, an OK day, but the mindset and discipline is getting better.

04:47

Day 23 of LiveAlgoDayTradingJournal Day 23: As expected, today being the day after a holiday (a trading break day), turned out to be a bad day. The markets remained range bound the whole day (for my stock) and just kept on hitting SL on both sides, frustrating (now, it's more like trying to frustrate). Anyways, I stuck to the algo, not doing any manual trades and the algo did not fall for anything, just the usual bearable defined losses. Realised that I dont trust all other algo websites from where I used to subscribe, is due to this; the drop in continuous internet. This is the culprit that makes my program lose data and give wrong results. So... will have to compensate for it. Progress: No FOMO, Anxiety, or front running, or anything else. No such emotion arose, I just let the algo do its job even when I can see that it missed the signals due to data loss. So, a bit more progress today.

10:19

30 Apr 2024 - Sharp fall in last 1 hr, rebalancing or reversal Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern." Nifty does a decent climb to hit a new all-time high of 22783 and then a brutal fall of 215pts ~ 0.95%. No matter how professional a trader you are, you cannot set a trap to make money out of that move. Agreed, the 22700 PE buyers would have made some decent money today, but it was never in the cards. Nifty was bullish and stayed bullish from the start, the sign of meltdown was not there, not according to me anyway. I was really scared that we would take out the 23800 on 2nd May as it's a holiday tomorrow. The 63mts TF paints another picture, a perfect triple top at the 22780 levels. A double top between 9th and 10th April and the third top today on 30th April. It is not a conventional triple top anyway, but the ATH levels are seen as quite shaky. As long as 22519 is respected, we maintain the long stance. Nifty algos ended the day with a gain of 210 INR.

Day 22 of DayTradingJournal Day 22 of DayTradingJournal: Let the algo run from the morning. Algo did a good job. Had an issue with internet in later part @2:30 when it stopped downloading data and hence no signals. This eroded my profitablility, otherwise later on I checked up eod data and ran a backtest to see the discrepancies in the live vs backtest data. Surprisingly, both matched. Other than the internet issue everything else is OK. Progress: No FOMO, no temptation (or controlled it), faith in system.

06:04

29 Apr 2024 - BankNifty hits a new ATH, becomes torch bearer...BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ We were quite sure BN would be bullish today but honestly did not think we would gain 1223 points ~ 2.54% in total. ICICI Bank had good quarterly results, but the outperformance was unexpected, that really fuelled the rally today. Can you believe, BN overshadowed NiftyIT, reclaimed the torchbearer status, and then hit a new ATH of 49473.6 today? NiftyIT is almost 13% down from its ATH, whereas BN is looking strong and roaring. The main reason, Nifty went up 1% was attributed to the outperformance in the banks, otherwise it would have ended the day flat. Honestly, there weren't any good news for Nifty to rally, unlike Banks which had good quarterly results impact. All 6 candles are in green today and all of them are with long bodies, such a treat to the eyes. Let us wait and watch how the expiry will play out tomorrow. My non-directional algo hit a loss of -83618 INR today, quite expected as the index went directional today.

29 Apr 2024 - Nifty resolves on the upside stance is Bullish now Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For Monday, we will go short if 22295 is taken out and will go long if 22519 is taken out." Nifty started with a gap-up, then came down to close the gap. Once we hit the previous close level, magically Nifty50 got real strength and then started climbing. Nifty gained a total of 213 points ~ 0.95% to not only break out from 22159 but to reinstate its bullish position. We are now very close to the ATH and once we take out that, we can safely remove the double top pattern. The indices are always resolving to the upside and it has been such a deadly journey for the Bears. Seems like they are facing an existential crisis. Bears will go extinct before Tigers in India. Nifty50 algos today ended the day with losses of -19644 INR.

Day 21 of DayTradingJournal Day 21 of DayTradingJournal: Full live algo deployed. Algo did very well compared to what I think I'd have done had I taken trades manually. Algo did as expected, taking all the entry, exit, SL, Tgt signals correctly. Progress: No manual trades today, no FOMO, no front-running the signal, no fear/greed while sitting in front of the system. Had an instance when I was tempted to take a manual trade, but stopped myself from doing it and kept the faith on the algo. Setback: today, nothing.

06:26

25 Apr 2024– Nifty50 gets a stance upgrade, bullish! 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for." Kotak Bank started the day with cuts of -10% due to the RBI news impact from yesterday. The spillover effect was visible on all Nifty components prompting a gap down open. It was the consensus trade and we were all ready for it. The first surprise came when we closed the gap by 09.43 even while Kotak was at -10%. The excess trade due to the short-covering bounce was visible between 10.19 to 10.51. The second surprise came when Nifty started rallying from 22400 levels to 22625 between 12.59 to 14.35. This is the 2nd expiry in which Nifty has gone ballistic. I am not sure if it was SL hunting, but it messed up my Algo trades and had to close at a loss of Rs43092 on Nifty. The 321pts intraday rally has ensured N50 gets a stance upgrade to Bullish with the next target being the ATH. If it takes out the ATH, then we can safely remove the double top pattern.

24 Apr 2024– Neutral and Out of steam, what is next? Nifty50 Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels." Another flat day, but the options premiums were not behaving as usual. The blame may be on VIX as the premiums were dead low that even a small 50+ points move created a huge skew between the Put and Call prices. India vix staying @ 10.2 levels is not a good sign for professional options traders as a small move will upset the premiums. A better alternative is you use spreads like credit/debit spreads - buy a strike, sell strike+1 etc, so that the premiums move in tandem and the volatility contraction may not impact that much. But I assume most of the Algos may not have spreads as the core strategy, to begin with. For tomorrow, we wish to maintain the neutral stance and look for bearish opportunities if 22295 is getting broken. If the index moves up, 22519 would be our first level to watch for. Algos ended up gaining Rs5496 today.

3 Apr 24 Nifty50, VIX collapsing 20% means Advantage Bulls!Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short." Nifty was perfectly neutral today after the opening candle. Since RELIANCE declared its quarterly results yesterday, we expected profit bookings on that counter. The mega gap-up and then cooling off on N50 was much attributed to RELIANCE's price action. Once N50 found support at yesterday's close, it decoupled itself from both RELIANCE and HDFCBANK price action. N50 was in green even when both the stocks were in red, that is not something we see usually. India VIX crashing almost 20% was another shocker for the Bears. Whenever we have dips, the Bears are unable to really punch a way through. The markets come back stronger than before and usually hit a newer top. A crashing VIX is advantage Bulls as it shows the uncertainty falling. For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a neutral stance and look for bullish opportunities as soon as it reaches for the 22519 levels. --- Nifty50 algos ended the day with profits of Rs12729 mostly due to the narrow range maintained by the index today.

23 Apr 24 - BankNifty, deadly opening candle & then flat day BankNifty Analysis — Stance Neutral ➡️ BN had a flat day too but not after a deadly looking opening candle. If you look at the charts, it is more or less a replica of what happened yesterday. BN shows it is taking a breather after the recent run. Not falling off from the current levels is an advantage Bulls. Just like we mentioned yesterday, 48103 is an interim resistance, but not a strong one. To take out the ATH, all we need is a slight push. BankNifty Algos ended the day with gains of Rs16071, but not after taking some MTM losses in the earlier part of the day. Once BN started trading flat, the profits started coming in.

22 Apr - Nifty50 gets a stance change, not bearish - but neutral Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: "I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral." Nifty snaps out of bearishness by breaking the 22295 resistance. Even though we had an unusual gap-up, we ended up almost closing it by 09.47. However, the Bears were not able to drive down the prices further indicating a lack of conviction. Nifty spent considerable time at the 22295 zone, visible from the blue encircled region before breaking out at 14.39. Just think about it, N50 came from 21777 to 22375 today in just 2 sessions, close to 600 points. The 63mts time frame is not bullish yet, but we are not bearish now. The best we can think of right now is to go neutral. If we fall back below 22295 tomorrow, we might even go short. 22519 would be an interim resistance on the upside above which we would like to go long. --- Algo trading - ended up losing 6003 on N50 algo trades today.

19 Apr 2024 BankNifty all 6 candles in GREEN, 1093pts rally BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BankNifty was more dramatic versus N50, it went ahead and rallied 1093pts ~ 2.35% and ended up taking out the crucial resistance of 47465. The momentum favors a stance change to neutral, but I would like to wait for one more day for confirmation. The lowest point of the day was hit in the opening candle and the highest point in the last candle - so much drama. And never in the rally today there was an attempt to break the upward direction. Unlike N50, hard to believe that it was short covering here - it looks like more of a long build-up. Again luckily did not switch on the Algos today, or else would have lost approximately 60k. 46284 support level was added today, but BN took support at 46592 levels itself. All 6 candles were in GREEN today - unbelievable momentum.

19 Apr 2024– Nifty Unseen 402pts momentum, not bullish though Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ Recap from yesterday: On the higher TF, we wish to maintain the bearish stance even though we did not get a 63mts closing candle below 22051. I am hoping that we may get one in the forenoon session tomorrow. Unseen momentum on Nifty50 today, we woke up to the bad news that Israel has launched counter strike on Iran, and Gifty (Global Nifty futures) were trading 400 points lower. The news and Twitter feed were not looking good and immediately I felt it was wise not to run my non-directional algo. That proved to be the right decision as my backtests showed losses of 97000 if I had run the Algo. Nifty opened below the support of 21913, hit an intraday low of 21777, and then started recovering. Between 11.27 to 12.11, N50 spent its time near the 21913 SR zone. Once it broke the resistance, it immediately went to the next SR of 22051. Between 12.51 to 13.47, N50 spent its time at 22051 before breaking out. N50 went ahead and hit an intraday high of 22179 before cooling off to close at 22149. When was the last time you saw N50 rally 402pts that too from poor global macros? I strongly think it was an intense short covering that fueled this rally and hence does not wish to alter my bearish stance. If we get past 22295 on Monday or Tuesday, I would change the stance to neutral.