XAUUSD Elliott Wave SetupPOSITIONING FOR THE WAVE 3 CRASH TO 4,350
Market Structure & Wave Count
Wave (1) Completion: The initial impulsive move to the downside has concluded at the "Strong Support" area (4,500 – 4,520), establishing a structural low and breaking the prior bullish A-B-C correction.
Wave (2) Retracement: Price is currently completing a technical correction, pushing up to retest the "Sell zone wave 2" between 4,560 and 4,580.
Wave (3) Confirmation: Strong price rejection at the current Sell Zone will confirm the end of the corrective phase and the start of Impulsive Wave (3)—typically the most powerful and aggressive move in an Elliott Wave sequence.
Key Technical Levels
Primary Sell Zone: 4,560 – 4,580. This supply cluster is where institutional bears are expected to re-establish dominant short positions.
Interim Support: 4,500 – 4,520. Expect minor reactionary bounces at this strong support; however, this level is unlikely to hold against the heavy momentum of Wave (3).
Downside Targets: The primary target for the upcoming Wave (3) is 4,429.831. The ultimate high-probability extension target for the completion of the 5-wave cycle is 4,351.913.
Execution Strategy
Bias: Heavily Bearish. Focus exclusively on high-probability short setups.
Action Plan: Utilize the current Wave (2) retracement into the 4,560 – 4,580 block to build short exposure. A sustained break below the 4,500 structural low will confirm the acceleration phase of Wave (3).
Invalidation: Any daily close above the Double Top peak at 4,640.561 completely invalidates the current bearish wave count.
Outlook
The price path is projected to expand lower through a 5-wave internal sub-structure. Following a powerful Wave (3) drop to 4,429.831 and a minor Wave (4) pullback towards 4,471.491, the market is aiming for the major liquidity pool near 4,351.913.
Patience is the key. Trade the plan.
Short