PCE, GDP focus — Gold under bearish pressureGold continues trading under medium-term bearish pressure as the market reacts cautiously ahead of tomorrow’s high-impact US data releases, especially Core PCE and Preliminary GDP. These two reports are becoming the key macro catalysts that could reshape expectations around future Fed policy and overall USD strength into month-end.
From the broader perspective, markets are still struggling between recession concerns and persistent inflation pressure. Slowing economic momentum continues supporting defensive flows into gold, but at the same time, stronger inflation risks and hawkish Fed rhetoric are preventing any sustainable bullish breakout structure from developing.
This explains why every short-term recovery in gold has recently been met with heavy selling pressure around major liquidity and trendline zones.
Technically, gold remains trapped below the major descending structure while continuing to create lower highs inside the current bearish channel. The latest recovery toward the upper demand + FVG + trendline confluence zone around 452x–456x was rejected again, reinforcing that institutional sellers are still defending upper liquidity areas aggressively.
MAIN SCENARIO
If upcoming PCE and GDP data continue supporting a stronger USD narrative, gold could remain under pressure and extend the bearish continuation toward lower support and liquidity zones around 446x–444x.
As long as price remains below the upper descending resistance structure, the broader market still favors sell continuation after recovery.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If US data disappoints and the USD weakens sharply, gold could attempt another short-term recovery toward upper demand zones. However, the market would still need a confirmed breakout above the major descending trendline before any larger bullish structure can be considered valid.
Short-term bias: bearish inside corrective structure.
Medium-term bias: still bearish below major trendline resistance.
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