EMA Downtrend, Waiting for Fibonacci Sell EntryFundamental Analysis
Gold remains under bearish pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts remain weak below the EMA resistance zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The EMA structure is still pointing downward, confirming that the main trend remains bearish.
Price recently created a doji candle near the lower area around 4,060 - 4,070, showing short-term hesitation after the sell-off. However, this doji is not enough to confirm a bullish reversal while price remains below the EMA trend.
The key sell entry zone is around 4,109 - 4,117. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone, broken structure, and EMA resistance pressure. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects, the bearish continuation setup becomes cleaner.
The main downside target is around 3,989, which aligns with the Fibonacci extension area and lower liquidity zone on the chart.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,064
Fibonacci sell entry zone: 4,109 - 4,117
EMA resistance area: 4,123 - 4,170
Short-term resistance: 4,086
Bearish continuation level: 4,073 - 4,064
Main Fibonacci target: 3,989
Invalidation area: above 4,146
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,109 - 4,117
Stop Loss: 4,146
Take Profit 1: 4,086
Take Profit 2: 4,034
Take Profit 3: 3,989
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,109 - 4,117 Fibonacci sell entry zone. This area is important because it aligns with the EMA downtrend and the previous broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA range.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks below 4,064 again, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 4,034, followed by the Fibonacci extension target around 3,989.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,109 - 4,117.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 4,064 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,146, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci sell entry zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,034 and 3,989.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the Fibonacci sell zone? 
Short
Short
Gold below supply — liquidity sweep to 3,922?Market Overview
• Macro Driver: The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates firmly near its recent local highs as macro participants digest yesterday's cautious commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. With the Fed's "higher-for-longer" monetary policy backed by structural inflation variables, Treasury yields remain anchored at elevated peaks. Furthermore, localized diplomatic progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp cooling of safe-haven premium arrays, forcing institutional capital to rotate out of Gold and accelerate immediate liquidation waves.
• Market Condition: Institutional order flow remains locked in a high-velocity markdown continuation phase. Large-scale smart money volume has cleanly breached short-term consolidation boundaries, converting old accumulation arrays into heavily protected supply ceilings.
Technical Context
• Structure: Acute Bearish Markdown Leg. The H1 timeframe indicates a flawless sequence of consecutive Break of Structure (BOS) market shifts. Price delivery is capped perfectly under dynamic descending supply, proving that sellers retain absolute algorithmic control and leaving zero room for weak retail buyers.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The sharp post-FOMC descent has left multiple unmitigated Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and premium supply blocks above. Currently, price is consolidating within a tight bearish flag, engineering minor buy-side liquidity (BSL) just to serve as fuel for a deeper structural flush into deep historical discount demand pools.
Key Zones
• Upper Premium Supply Ceiling (Major H1 FVG): 4,155.000
• Immediate Intermediate Supply (Broken Support / FVG Box): 4,070.000
• Current Market Pivot Handle: 4,028.163
• Near-Term Support / Sweep Target: 3,965.000
• Ultimate Macro Demand Floor (Major Target Box): 3,922.000
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price delivers a minor corrective relief pop to mitigate the immediate intermediate supply near 4,070.000 AND validates lower-timeframe (M5/M15) bearish displacement -> THEN look to execute Short positions targeting the 3,965.000 sweep handle, expanding aggressively directly down to the Ultimate Macro Demand Floor at 3,922.000.
• IF price invalidates this dominant expansion vector by printing a strong, decisive H1 candle close completely above the 4,070.000 supply array -> THEN the immediate markdown momentum is temporarily paused, opening the door for an internal range consolidation.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Heavily Bearish Continuation Bias. Chasing shorts at the absolute bottom of this current consolidation handle carries poor risk-to-reward metrics. Our mathematical edge heavily favors adopting a strict "Sell-the-rally" execution matrix, waiting for engineered liquidity pullbacks into internal supply arrays before riding the markdown leg down to the macro floor.
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Are you looking to short the corrective relief pop toward the 4,070 FVG array, or do you expect the market to flush Gold straight to 3,922 without a breather? Drop your thoughts in the comments below! Remember to like, follow, and visit my profile to catch the real-time tracking of this setup. WARNING: GOLD'S BEARISH TREND CONTINUES UNABATEDGold continues to extend its bearish structure despite several factors that would normally support higher prices. This is exactly why traders need to focus on the broader macro narrative rather than individual headlines.
Over the past few sessions, markets have welcomed progress in peace negotiations, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Oil prices have also softened, helping calm inflation concerns and easing pressure on global markets. Meanwhile, central banks and large institutional players continue to accumulate gold as a long-term reserve asset.
Under normal circumstances, these factors would be supportive for gold.
Yet gold keeps falling.
The reason is simple: the market is currently trading the strength of the U.S. Dollar more than the bullish gold narrative.
Inflation remains elevated enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from turning dovish. Recent Fed communication continues to reinforce the idea that interest rates may stay higher for longer, while the U.S. economy remains relatively resilient compared with other major economies. As long as yields remain attractive and the USD stays strong, capital continues to favor the dollar over non-yielding assets such as gold.
This creates a situation where positive gold news is unable to generate sustained upside momentum, while bearish catalysts continue to have a larger impact on price action.
From a structural perspective, gold has now confirmed multiple breakdowns and continues trading below key recovery zones. The market resembles a liquidation phase rather than an accumulation phase. Every recovery attempt has been met with renewed selling pressure, confirming that sellers remain firmly in control.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
The broader trend remains bearish.
Gold may continue to search for lower liquidity levels before a meaningful bottom can be established. However, after such an aggressive decline, chasing price lower becomes increasingly risky.
The preferred approach remains waiting for a technical recovery toward previously broken Demand + Fibonacci zones around 415x–420x, where fresh sell-side participation could re-enter the market.
MARKET VIEW
This market is teaching an important lesson:
Peace talks are bullish.
Lower oil is bullish.
Central bank buying is bullish.
Yet gold continues to decline.
That tells us the dominant force remains the USD and the higher-for-longer rate environment.
Until the market sees a meaningful shift in Fed expectations or a weakening dollar, rallies should be viewed cautiously and primarily as opportunities within a broader bearish trend.
Current Bias: Strong Bearish 📉
Key Zone: 415x–420x Retest Area
Macro Driver: Strong USD outweighing traditional gold-supportive factors.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Short 
Short
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IN GOLD… BIG MOVE INCOMING!Whenever the majority of traders lose confidence in a particular direction—and it feels like the market has no strength left to continue—that’s often when a sharp and unexpected reversal happens. These moves catch most people off guard. I believe today could be one of those days. So let’s break down the likely direction and our plan of action for gold this Tuesday using market psychology and key institutional levels.
In my weekly analysis, I clearly mentioned the key support levels at **$4085** and **$4135**. The market is still respecting these zones, which shows they are strong institutional support levels. My plan has been simple: as long as gold holds above this zone, the focus is on trapping sellers.
On Monday, we did see an upside move, but there was no continuation. However, I had already mentioned that a sustained move wouldn’t come below **$4300** easily. The market would deliberately create a pullback to make traders believe it’s a retracement so they start selling. As you can see, overall price action and trend still look bearish, which is why many traders were waiting for pullbacks to sell—and they got that opportunity yesterday.
A lot of sellers have now entered the market because the retracement came from a publicly visible resistance area. That’s exactly why this looks like a trap. If you look at last week’s sharp fall on June 17, the low was around **$4220**. Yesterday, the market respected this level as resistance and moved down, forming a lower high structure—something that further convinced traders to sell.
The most important point is today’s opening below **$4200**. Monday also closed below **$4200**, so many traders likely entered sell positions near the close with stop losses above **$4200**. Even today, the market opened below **$4200** and didn’t hunt those stop losses yet. This strongly suggests that a large number of traders are currently in sell positions.
And that’s exactly why I believe the market is preparing to trap these sellers. An upside move is very likely in the coming hours.
This entire bullish plan remains valid as long as gold stays above **$4085**. I’m expecting a bigger upside target because both last week’s low and this Monday’s low have already been swept—indicating liquidity has been taken. Many traders are now randomly jumping into sell positions, and the market tends to move against the majority.
**Trading Plan:**
Liquidity sweep is already done, and I am already in a long position on gold. For a safer entry, you can wait for a **15-minute candle close above $4135**, and then look for strong buying opportunities.
Good luck to everyone—share your trading plan in the comments 👇
Gold Bounce Got Rejected again: Bear Is BackGold Bounce Got Rejected again: Bear Is Back, and the Demand Zone Is Now the Magnet
Yesterday the relief rally had to reclaim the supply overhead or it was nothing more than a reflex. Price pushed into the lower edge of that zone, printed a lower high, and got thrown straight back down. Today gold is red by more than a percent, trading near 4,140, and every single timeframe has flipped bearish again. The bounce is over. It did exactly what the chart said a bounce in this structure does: it sold into supply and handed control back to the bears.
Here is where it leaves us.
THE BOUNCE FAILED WHERE IT HAD TO
The supply band at 4,236 to 4,363 was the wall, and it held yesterday. On the four hour the change of character down has already printed, the lower high is in, the breakdown followed, and price is back beneath the levels the bounce briefly reclaimed. That is the definition of a fade, not a turn.
The structure dashboard tells the same story in one word: Full Bear. Both the daily and the four hour now read bearish across 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D and 1W. The fast timeframes that were green yesterday, the 15m and 1H, have rolled back over. When the bounce cannot even hold the timeframes that produced it, you have your answer. The path of least resistance is down again.
THE MAP NOW
Downside is where the action is. The immediate shelf is the four hour support around 4,125, sitting right beneath price, the first crack to watch. Below it, the daily support at 4059 is the floor that has held this entire move. Lose that and the market opens into the weekly demand zone at 4,059 down to 3,884. That zone is the one that matters. It is the high quality buy area, the place where the structural bid and the longer term trend that is still pointed up would be expected to defend, and it is the first level on this chart where a patient long actually earns an edge.
Upside, the levels are now overhead and proven. The four hour resistance at 4,201 is the first hurdle for any bounce attempt, then the same 4,236 to 4,363 supply that just rejected price, lining up with daily resistance at 4,331. The bears own everything between price and that band until it is reclaimed.
WHAT THE BULLS STILL NEED
Nothing has changed about the price of admission, except that today made it harder, not easier. A long here needs one of two things. Either price reaches the weekly demand at 4,059 to 3,884 and builds a reaction inside it, which is the patient, structural entry. Or price reclaims 4,363 and flips the daily structure to the upside, the first higher high after this run of lower ones. Today delivered the opposite of the second, a lower high and a rejection, so until the demand zone prints a reaction, buying this is catching a knife into a Full Bear tape with the macro pushing the same direction.
The trend is down, the bounce proved it, and the smart move is to let price come to the demand rather than guess at a bottom in the middle. Respect the level, not the hope. XAGUSD: Downward Channel Remains Strong, Sellers Target 57,640The XAGUSD chart on the H4 timeframe is showing a clear picture: silver is still under medium-term downtrend pressure. After several attempts to recover but failing to break through the upper resistance zone, the price continues to be squeezed within the downtrend channel, reflecting that sellers still control the main market movement.
The most noteworthy point is the 66,499 zone. This is not only a near-term resistance, but also the intersection area between the upper edge of the downtrend channel, the Ichimoku zone above, and the price zone where a previous selling reaction occurred. In other words, if XAGUSD recovers to this area but fails to close strongly above, the market is very likely to form another price rejection.
Structurally, silver is still creating progressively weaker pullbacks. Each time the price approaches the resistance zone, the buying pressure lacks the necessary explosive force to reverse the trend. With the USD still supported and precious metals under pressure from high interest rate expectations, the current rallies in XAGUSD should be seen as areas to observe selling pressure rather than buy signals.
My preferred scenario is a technical rebound in XAGUSD to the 65.50 – 66.50 region, followed by a rejection signal at resistance and a continued decline along the main channel. If selling pressure persists, the next target could be 57.640, coinciding with the lower end of the current downtrend structure.
Reference strategy:
SELL: 65.50 – 66.50
SL: above 67.30
TP: 57.640 Short 
Bearish trend to 4,110 or drop to Macro SSL?⚖️ Macro Backdrop: Strong Yields Suppress Bullion Momentum
Gold kickstarts the new trading week under persistent structural duress as elevated U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields and strong Dollar Index (DXY) traction continue to cap any meaningful upside. Institutional order flow remains systematically focused on premium distribution, capitalizing on the lack of high-impact tier-1 data early this week to engineer clear retail traps. The primary bearish narrative remains fully intact as smart money drives prices into deeper discount liquidity pools.
📉 Technical Narrative: Ziczac Expansion Leg in Progress
The H2 structural layout presents a highly calculated bearish markdown playbook playing out inside the dominant order flow:
1. The Rejection Momentum: Following a brief consolidation, price closed weak and initiated a decisive leg down, confirming that bearish order flow is completely back in control.
2. Liquidity Pool Target 1 (4,110 - 4,120 Corridor): Price is currently expanding directly toward this internal demand zone. This area houses dense buy-side stop-losses from early buyers. A sharp sweep here is expected to trigger a minor, low-volume technical relief bounce.
3. The Pullback Inducement: The projected ziczac path maps out a minor relief bounce from the 4,110 floor to lure breakout sellers before smart money engineered the final expansion downward.
4. The Ultimate Destination (4,035 - 4,045 Floor): The core magnet for this entire cycle remains the Major Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) Pool resting at the deep macro discount area below.
🔄 IF-THEN Playbook (Execution Scenarios):
• IF price taps the 4,110 internal demand floor and prints a minor technical bounce -> THEN monitor the pullback structures for lower-timeframe failures (M5/M15 CHoCH Rejection) to re-enter premium shorts targeting the 4,040 macro bottom.
• IF price breaks above the 4,210 immediate ceiling with a solid H2 candle close -> THEN the immediate bearish expansion thesis is paused, and we step aside.
🎯 Trading Metrics Summary:
• Current Market Price: 4,176.125
• Near-Term Target Floor: 4,110 — 4,120 Area
• Ultimate Macro Target: 4,035 — 4,045 Area (Major SSL Pool)
• Invalidation Point: Decisive H2 close above 4,210
💡 Trader Question:
Are you planning to scalp the temporary technical bounce at the 4,110 floor, or are you sitting tight to short the pullback continuation down to the 4,040 macro target? Let me know your playbook in the comments! Short 
EURUSD — Corrective Bounce Before Deeper Bearish Continuation
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming macro data.
For now, the recovery looks corrective, not a confirmed bullish reversal. If price fails at the value sell zone, sellers may continue to control the next move.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, EURUSD is still trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The EMA structure is above price, showing that the short-term trend remains bearish.
Price is currently around 1.1445 after reacting from the lower buy zone near 1.1436 - 1.1445. This area may support one more corrective bounce before the next bearish leg.
The key sell zone is around 1.1491 - 1.1509. This zone aligns with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement, previous structure, and value range resistance. If EURUSD reaches this area and rejects, the bearish continuation setup becomes cleaner.
Below current price, the main downside target is around 1.1383 - 1.1384. This is the target zone marked on the chart and may become the next liquidity objective if sellers regain control.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1445
Buy reaction zone: 1.1436 - 1.1445
Sell value range: 1.1491 - 1.1509
Fibonacci 0.618 sell zone: 1.1491 - 1.1509
EMA resistance area: 1.1498 - 1.1533
Short-term invalidation: above 1.1533
Main downside target: 1.1383 - 1.1384
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1491 - 1.1509
Stop Loss: 1.1533
Take Profit 1: 1.1445
Take Profit 2: 1.1416
Take Profit 3: 1.1383 - 1.1384
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to create one more corrective bounce into the 1.1491 - 1.1509 value range. This area is the main Fibonacci and resistance zone on the chart.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 1.1436, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside target would be 1.1416, followed by the main target around 1.1383 - 1.1384.
Alternative Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.1436 - 1.1445
Stop Loss: 1.1416
Take Profit 1: 1.1481
Take Profit 2: 1.1491
Take Profit 3: 1.1509
Buy Condition
This is only a short-term corrective bounce setup, not the main trend view. A buy setup is valid only if EURUSD holds the 1.1436 - 1.1445 buy zone and forms clear bullish rejection.
If price fails to hold this zone, the bounce scenario is invalid and sellers may push directly toward 1.1383 - 1.1384.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to reach the value sell zone.
Look for bearish rejection around 1.1491 - 1.1509.
A break below 1.1436 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1533, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while EURUSD stays below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. Price may create one more corrective bounce first, but the preferred plan is to look for sell confirmation from 1.1491 - 1.1509 toward 1.1416 and 1.1383 - 1.1384.
Do you share the same view that EURUSD may bounce first before a deeper drop, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the value sell zone?
Short 
Short 
Gold Rally Faces Resistance as Sellers Eye Another Move LowerGold has recovered from the $4,100 region, but the rebound is approaching a major resistance zone near $4,240–4,250. For now, the move still looks corrective rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend.
The macro backdrop remains challenging. Traders are focused on US PMI releases, housing data, and upcoming inflation numbers. Strong economic data could keep the US Dollar supported and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,240 – $4,250
Stop Loss: $4,290
Take Profit 1: $4,150
Take Profit 2: $4,100
Take Profit 3: $4,080
Unless gold breaks and holds above $4,250, rallies may continue to attract selling interest. Short 
GOLD NEXT WEEK: BREAKDOWN YA REVERSAL? TRUTH WILL SHOCK YOUNext week is looking very interesting to me because market makers have already set a strong trap. Based on the current structure and price action, the market is now appearing highly bearish to most traders.
Last week, many traders expected that after the breakdown of $4100, the reversal would continue to the upside. However, those expectations failed, and buyers were heavily liquidated. Because of the strong downside move, a large portion of traders have now shifted their bias toward selling.
As a result, many traders will prefer selling on pullbacks next week, targeting the key psychological level of $4000. But the real question is — will the market actually allow sellers to achieve this so easily?
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Last week, after sweeping liquidity around $4366, the market showed a sharp rejection from around $4383. This area is important because it has already acted as resistance before.
If you look back, on 17th October 2025, the market formed a high around $4380, and from that level we saw a major drop of nearly 11.30%. Interestingly, last week during FOMC, the market again rejected from this same zone, which has increased seller confidence.
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From a broader perspective, the market has been consistently making lower lows over the past few weeks. However, one important detail is that last week did not sweep the previous week’s low and instead closed on the upside.
This shift is important, and because of that, I am expecting a bullish weekly candle next week.
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Now coming to an important technical observation:
If you look at the daily timeframe, the 11th June candle (liquidity sweep candle) is very strong. Based on my experience, such strong candles are rarely broken directly.
Most of the time, the market first focuses on liquidity generation (creating traps and building positions), and only after that does it break down or move beyond such strong candles.
This further supports the idea that the market may not move directly toward $4000, and instead will spend time trapping traders before the actual move.
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Since the market has been falling continuously, sentiment has turned strongly bearish. Most traders are now expecting a direct move toward $4000, but this is a major psychological level, and the market usually does not allow such obvious targets to be achieved easily.
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For me, the $4136 – $4084 zone is a very important support area.
As long as gold is trading above this zone, I am not interested in selling. Instead, I expect the market to show small pullbacks to attract sellers, and then gradually move higher.
From a higher timeframe perspective as well, this zone is strong. Until we see a strong 1-hour candle closing below it with volume, selling remains risky, especially after such an extended downside move.
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Also, considering the rejection from the $4380 area and the recent FOMC move, many traders who sold from that zone are likely holding positions and targeting lower levels.
However, I expect that the market may break above $4383 (last week’s high), especially because it is very close to $4400, where many traders typically place their stop losses.
If that happens, it can trigger a liquidity grab and push the market higher.
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Final Plan
Overall, I am bullish on gold for next week.
As long as price holds above $4084 – $4136, my focus will be on looking for buying opportunities rather than chasing sells.
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I hope this analysis gives you clear direction for next week.
What’s your plan for gold? Let me know 👇
Long 
EURUSD — Bearish Continuation From Fibonacci Value Zones
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as price trades below the main EMA structure. For next week, traders should continue watching USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming U.S. data, as these factors may drive volatility around key Fibonacci zones.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts remain capped below EMA resistance.
Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, EURUSD is still moving inside a descending structure. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish.
Price is currently around 1.1465 after a strong bearish move below the previous support area. The recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal yet, and the chart shows clear sell zones above price.
The first key sell area is around 1.1490 - 1.1505, near the 0.618 Fibonacci reaction zone. This area may act as the first resistance if price creates a short-term pullback.
The stronger Fibonacci value sell zone is around 1.1518 - 1.1531. This zone aligns with the golden ratio area, previous support turned resistance, and the EMA pressure.
The higher sell swing zone is around 1.1565 - 1.1582. This is the stronger resistance zone on the chart and may offer another sell opportunity if price retraces deeper.
The main downside target for next week is around 1.1372, which aligns with the lower channel area and bearish projection on the chart.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1465
Sell zone 1: 1.1490 - 1.1505
Fibonacci golden ratio sell zone: 1.1518 - 1.1531
Sell swing resistance: 1.1565 - 1.1582
EMA resistance area: 1.1525 - 1.1582
Short-term downside target: 1.1481
Main weekly bearish target: 1.1372
Invalidation area: above 1.1582
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario 1 — Fibonacci 0.618 Retest
Entry: 1.1490 - 1.1505
Stop Loss: 1.1535
Take Profit 1: 1.1465
Take Profit 2: 1.1418
Take Profit 3: 1.1372
Sell Condition
The first sell setup is to wait for EURUSD to pull back into 1.1490 - 1.1505. This zone aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci reaction area and short-term broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
Main Sell Scenario 2 — Golden Ratio Value Zone
Entry: 1.1518 - 1.1531
Stop Loss: 1.1582
Take Profit 1: 1.1481
Take Profit 2: 1.1418
Take Profit 3: 1.1372
Sell Condition
The second sell setup is stronger if EURUSD retraces deeper into 1.1518 - 1.1531. This is the main Fibonacci golden ratio zone and also aligns with the previous support/resistance area.
If price rejects from this zone and fails to reclaim the EMA range, sellers may regain control and continue the bearish move toward 1.1481, then 1.1372.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest one of the Fibonacci sell zones.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 1.1465 strengthens the bearish continuation view.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1582, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view for next week remains bearish while EURUSD stays below EMA 34, EMA 89, EMA 200, and the descending trendline. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci value zones, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.1481 and the weekly target around 1.1372.
Do you share the same bearish view on EURUSD for next week, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the Fibonacci value zone?
XAUUSD Weekly Plan — Is Gold Walking Into Another Seller Test?
Gold is entering a very important week.
Price is trying to hold above the lower structure, but the bigger picture still shows one clear thing:
The descending trendline is still controlling the market.
THE SIMPLE READ
Gold is still moving under a major bearish trendline.
That means every recovery needs to be tested carefully, especially when price is approaching a short-term Order Sell zone.
Right now, gold is trading around the 4,155 area. The market is not too far from the 4,180 - 4,220 resistance zone, where sellers may start watching again.
For beginners, this is not a place to guess.
This is a place to wait and see whether gold can break the trendline — or reject from it again.
WHAT I SEE
The first key area is 4,180 - 4,220.
This is the short-term Order Sell zone. It also sits near the falling trendline, so if gold reacts here, sellers may try to protect the bearish structure.
Below price, the next important area is around 4,000.
This zone matters because it sits near the lower support line. If gold loses this area, the bearish move may become cleaner.
The next larger zone is 3,850 - 3,900.
This is a POC area, where price may react because the market has shown strong volume interest there before.
The deeper support is around 3,600 - 3,670.
This is marked as the POC - Order Buy zone. If gold continues lower into this area, buyers may start watching for a stronger reaction.
THE WEEKLY PLAN
📉 IF gold rejects from 4,180 - 4,220 and stays below the descending trendline:
→ Sellers may keep control of the weekly structure
→ Price could move back toward 4,000 first
→ If 4,000 breaks, the next downside area is 3,850 - 3,900
→ A deeper move could open toward 3,600 - 3,670
→ Possible sell idea: after bearish confirmation near resistance
→ Invalidation: clear break and hold above the trendline
📈 IF gold breaks and holds above 4,220:
→ The short-term bearish pressure may slow down
→ Buyers may try to build a recovery structure
→ But the breakout needs confirmation, not just one fast candle
→ Possible buy idea: only after breakout and retest confirmation
→ First upside area: 4,300 - 4,350
⏳ No confirmation = no trade.
💡 Tiara’s Tip:
A market can bounce and still remain bearish.
That is why I never judge gold only by one green candle.
The real question is:
Can price break the trendline and hold above it?
If not, the bounce may only be a retest before another move lower.
For this week, I’m watching 4,180 - 4,220 as the seller test zone.
If sellers defend it, gold may continue lower toward the POC zones.
If buyers break it clearly, the market may start showing early recovery signs.
YOUR TURN
💬 What do you see for gold this week — will sellers defend 4,180 - 4,220, or will buyers finally break the trendline?
Drop a 🔴 for seller rejection or 🟢 for breakout recovery below 👇
Short 
Persistent Bearish Channel — Institutional Dive Below 4,000⚖️ Macro Backdrop: Bond Yield Twin-Engine Dominance
Gold enters the new trading week under severe fundamental duress as the dual macro drivers—elevated U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields staying at over 1-year highs and a relentless Dollar Index (DXY) rally—continue to squeeze non-yielding bullion. While the sudden postponement of the US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland injected temporary geopolitical noise into the order flow, the primary institutional flow remains firmly focused on premium liquidation. With no major tier-1 data scheduled to disrupt the current momentum early next week, technical market structure and pre-engineered liquidity traps will heavily dictate price action.
📉 Technical Narrative: Bearish Channel Control & Structural Rejection
The structural environment on the H4 chart showcases textbook institutional markdown precision within a well-defined Descending Channel.
1. The Dynamic Resistance Rejection: Following a brief structural relief rally, XAUUSD faced a heavy rejection at the confluence of the descending channel's median line and the internal bearish trendline. This resulted in a clean lower-timeframe Change of Character (CHoCH) downward, closing the week weak at 4,155.405.
2. S/R Flip Validation: The immediate order flow indicates a continuation of this bearish expansion leg, targeting weak internal supports and cleaning out early breakout buyers.
3. Liquidity Draw Floor 1 (4,010 — 4,035 Area): Price is projected to execute a sharp downward flush into this near-term demand zone to sweep internal sell-side liquidity. A temporary, low-volume technical bounce is expected here to build a "Right Shoulder" or minor retail inducement.
4. The Ultimate Macro Target (3,920 — 3,940 Area): The definitive destination for this entire weekly distribution cycle is the major HTF Discount Demand and Ultimate SSL Pool resting at the bottom floor. Smart money requires a violent sweep of this level to accumulate heavy long inventory for the next macro cycle.
🔄 IF-THEN Playbook (Execution Scenarios):
• IF price expands downward into the 4,010 - 4,035 target pool and prints a short-term relief bounce followed by a lower-timeframe failure (M15/H1 CHoCH Rejection) -> THEN look to lock in premium short positions targeting the 3,920 ultimate macro floor.
• IF price invalidates the primary bearish momentum by scaling and closing decisively above the 4,240 internal resistance level -> THEN the immediate bearish expansion thesis is paused, and we will step aside to reassess.
🎯 Trading Metrics Summary:
• Weekly Closing Price: 4,155.405
• Immediate Structural Resistance: 4,210 - 4,240
• Target Floor 1 (Pullback Trigger): 4,010 — 4,035
• Ultimate Macro Target Floor: 3,920 — 3,940
• Invalidation Point: Solid H4 candle close above 4,250
💡 Trader Question:
Are you planning to scalp the temporary technical bounce when price hits the first 4,020 support corridor, or are you sitting tight to build heavy swing short positions down to the 3,920 macro floor? Let me know your playbook in the comments! Short 
38XX–40XX: Potential bottom or next target?Over the past several weeks, gold has remained under relentless selling pressure, sliding from the 44xx region toward 41xx and continuing to probe lower liquidity zones. The question many traders are asking now is simple: where is the bottom?
From a macro perspective, the answer is not as straightforward as identifying a support level on a chart.
The market is currently transitioning from a panic-driven selloff into a potential bottom-building phase. While the 38xx–40xx region is increasingly emerging as a candidate for a medium-term bottom, it is still too early to confirm. Historically, major bottoms are rarely formed through a single sharp reversal. Instead, they are usually created through a prolonged accumulation process involving repeated tests of lower liquidity zones, false breakouts, failed recoveries, and multiple cycles of buyer-seller repositioning.
This means that even if gold experiences strong rebounds from current levels, those rallies should not automatically be interpreted as the start of a new bullish cycle. The market may continue revisiting lower support areas as it gradually builds a stronger foundation.
From the macro side, the environment remains challenging for gold.
Inflation pressures continue to support the U.S. Dollar, while recent Federal Reserve communication reinforces the possibility that interest rates could remain elevated for longer than markets initially expected. As long as real yields remain relatively attractive and monetary policy stays restrictive, capital has fewer reasons to aggressively rotate back into gold.
Geopolitical developments, economic uncertainty, or temporary risk-off events may still trigger powerful short-term rallies. However, these moves currently look more like corrective recoveries within a broader bearish structure rather than the beginning of a sustained long-term uptrend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO
Primary View
Gold remains in a broader bearish structure and continues searching for a durable bottom.
The current support zone around 40xx remains critical. A temporary recovery can develop from this region, but price may still revisit lower liquidity zones as part of a larger accumulation process.
The 38xx–40xx area is becoming increasingly important as a potential long-term demand zone, though confirmation is still lacking.
Macro Focus
Ongoing inflation resilience supporting the USD.
Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance.
Interest rate expectations remain a key headwind for gold.
Geopolitical headlines can create volatility but have not yet changed the broader trend.
FINAL THOUGHT
The market is no longer simply trending lower—it is entering the stage where participants begin searching for value. However, finding value and confirming a bottom are two very different things.
Until macro conditions shift decisively in favor of precious metals, rallies should be viewed cautiously. Gold may be approaching an important long-term support region, but a true bottom will likely require time, repeated testing, and evidence of sustained demand before a meaningful recovery can begin.
Current Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Key Zone: 38xx–40xx
Long-Term Question: Is this accumulation before recovery, or simply another pause before the next leg lower? 📉
LucasGrayTrading Short 
38XX–40XX: A POTENTIAL BOTTOM OR THE NEXT DESTINATION?Over the past several weeks, gold has remained under relentless selling pressure, sliding from the 44xx region toward 41xx and continuing to probe lower liquidity zones. The question many traders are asking now is simple: where is the bottom?
From a macro perspective, the answer is not as straightforward as identifying a support level on a chart.
The market is currently transitioning from a panic-driven selloff into a potential bottom-building phase. While the 38xx–40xx region is increasingly emerging as a candidate for a medium-term bottom, it is still too early to confirm. Historically, major bottoms are rarely formed through a single sharp reversal. Instead, they are usually created through a prolonged accumulation process involving repeated tests of lower liquidity zones, false breakouts, failed recoveries, and multiple cycles of buyer-seller repositioning.
This means that even if gold experiences strong rebounds from current levels, those rallies should not automatically be interpreted as the start of a new bullish cycle. The market may continue revisiting lower support areas as it gradually builds a stronger foundation.
From the macro side, the environment remains challenging for gold.
Inflation pressures continue to support the U.S. Dollar, while recent Federal Reserve communication reinforces the possibility that interest rates could remain elevated for longer than markets initially expected. As long as real yields remain relatively attractive and monetary policy stays restrictive, capital has fewer reasons to aggressively rotate back into gold.
Geopolitical developments, economic uncertainty, or temporary risk-off events may still trigger powerful short-term rallies. However, these moves currently look more like corrective recoveries within a broader bearish structure rather than the beginning of a sustained long-term uptrend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO
Primary View
Gold remains in a broader bearish structure and continues searching for a durable bottom.
The current support zone around 40xx remains critical. A temporary recovery can develop from this region, but price may still revisit lower liquidity zones as part of a larger accumulation process.
The 38xx–40xx area is becoming increasingly important as a potential long-term demand zone, though confirmation is still lacking.
Macro Focus
Ongoing inflation resilience supporting the USD.
Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance.
Interest rate expectations remain a key headwind for gold.
Geopolitical headlines can create volatility but have not yet changed the broader trend.
FINAL THOUGHT
The market is no longer simply trending lower—it is entering the stage where participants begin searching for value. However, finding value and confirming a bottom are two very different things.
Until macro conditions shift decisively in favor of precious metals, rallies should be viewed cautiously. Gold may be approaching an important long-term support region, but a true bottom will likely require time, repeated testing, and evidence of sustained demand before a meaningful recovery can begin.
Current Bias: Bearish to Neutral
Key Zone: 38xx–40xx
Long-Term Question: Is this accumulation before recovery, or simply another pause before the next leg lower? 📉
LucasGrayTrading Short 
