XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Prevails◈ XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Still Controls the Structure
Gold is facing renewed selling pressure as the market reacts to stronger USD demand and rising concerns around inflation expectations. From Kelly’s view, the chart also supports this bearish tone, with price still trading below the key sell zone and showing signs that another Elliott wave decline may continue.
The key idea is simple: gold is not yet showing a clean bullish recovery, and the structure still favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has been moving in a repeated bearish rhythm, with several recovery attempts failing near resistance. After the latest rebound, price could not hold above the 4,060–4,080 area and quickly rotated lower again.
The current price is around 4,036, while the nearest sell zone is sitting near 4,020–4,035. This area is important because price is trying to stabilise here, but the recovery is still weak. If sellers continue to defend this zone, gold may drop back towards the lower Fibonacci support.
The main downside target remains the 3,940–3,955 area, where the chart marks the support zone, Fibonacci 1.618 extension, and potential end of wave 5.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,020–4,035: current sell zone and short-term resistance
◌ 3,985–4,000: buy scalping wave 4 reaction area
◌ 3,940–3,955: support / Fibonacci 1.618 / wave 5 target
◌ 4,060–4,080: resistance area if price rebounds
◌ Above 4,080: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave continuation after the previous corrective rebound failed.
Wave 1 started the decline from the upper resistance area.
Wave 2 created a short recovery but failed to change the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger bearish pressure.
Wave 4 may be developing around the 3,985–4,000 reaction area.
If the sell zone continues to hold, wave 5 may extend towards 3,940–3,955.
This is why Kelly would still treat the current market as bearish unless gold can reclaim the higher resistance zone with strength.
▸ Fundamental backdrop
Gold is under pressure as energy-driven inflation concerns keep the market cautious about the Fed’s policy path. If traders continue pricing in a more hawkish Fed outlook, the US Dollar may stay supported and limit gold’s recovery.
At the same time, rising US-Iran tension is also supporting USD demand as a safe-haven currency. This creates a difficult environment for gold in the short term, especially when the technical structure is already leaning bearish.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,020–4,035 sell zone before expecting bearish continuation.
Sell zone: 4,020–4,035 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,080 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 3,985–4,000
Take profit 2: 3,960
Take profit 3: 3,940–3,955
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,080 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a corrective recovery before the next structure becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, gold is still trading under bearish pressure. The macro backdrop supports USD strength, while the technical chart shows price failing to reclaim key resistance.
The cleaner plan is not to chase price at the low, but to wait for a reaction around the sell zone. If sellers defend that area, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci support below.
Gold remains vulnerable.
As long as resistance holds, the downside structure still has priority.
Share your view below. 
Short
Long 
GOLD: Range Break or Trend Continuation?📌 Market Overview
• Gold remains under pressure after the recent sell-off, with price still trading below the H1 descending trendline.
• Despite several rebound attempts, bullish momentum remains weak and the market is still trapped inside the current consolidation range.
• Today's focus shifts to U.S. Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, and any new headlines surrounding Trump and Iran, as these could trigger the next wave of volatility.
📌 Trading Plan
Resistance: 4000–4010 | 4055–4070
Support: 3970–3960 | 3942 | 3888
📌 Personal View
✅ As long as price remains below the descending trendline, the primary bias remains SELL on rallies.
✅ If price breaks and holds above 4010, a short-term recovery toward 4055–4070 becomes more likely.
✅ If 3960 is broken, the next downside targets are 3942, followed by 3888.
✅ Avoid chasing trades inside the current range. Wait for a clear breakout or a confirmed rejection at key levels before entering.
📌 What do you think?
Will Gold break above 4010 and start a recovery, or lose 3960 and extend the bearish trend? Short 
DON'T TRADE GOLD TODAY UNTIL YOU READ THIS!For the past two days, I have been consistently saying that sellers remain in control of Gold and that the overall market structure is still bearish. Based on that, I expected a strong selling move, and that's exactly what we witnessed. We finally got a solid bearish continuation along with a daily close below $4000.
Now the big question is: What should we expect on the last trading day of the week?
Make sure you read this psychological analysis carefully because it will not only help you understand the market psychology but also give you a clear trading plan for today's session.
We have now reached a very important area, and the close below $4000 has changed market sentiment significantly. As soon as the market closed below this major psychological level, many retail traders randomly jumped into selling positions. At the same time, another group of traders is still trying to fight for buying opportunities above $3950, mainly because the $3944-$3975 zone has acted as a strong demand area in the past.
Even today, you can see Gold attempting to hold support around $3970. This is the same area from which Gold previously delivered a short-term reversal, and because of that, many emotional buyers are entering the market with stop losses below $3950, hoping that another bullish reversal will happen.
However, I believe those expectations are likely to be disappointed.
Despite the aggressive bullish rallies we have seen over the last several days, my view has remained unchanged. Those sharp buying moves were never enough to change the higher-timeframe trend. Instead, I believe they were simply inducement moves designed to attract buyers into the market before another wave of selling.
The overall higher-timeframe structure is still strongly bearish, and as long as that structure remains intact, I will continue to favor selling opportunities over buying. If you decide to buy, I believe it is much safer to trade with smaller position sizes. My main focus is still on catching the next larger bearish move.
Friday Trading Plan
For Friday, I prefer to be slightly less aggressive because Gold is already trading below $4000 and very close to this year's lows. At these levels, both buyers and sellers become extremely emotional, which usually increases volatility and creates false moves.
Because of that, my focus today will mainly be on smaller intraday scalps rather than chasing aggressive positions.
I believe Gold is likely to spend most of today's session trading above $3960 and below $4017.
Just as the market repeatedly trapped buyers above $4000 before delivering the recent sell-off, there is a good possibility that Gold may now spend some time above $3950, keeping buyers interested while simultaneously frustrating sellers before the next impulsive bearish move begins.
Today's session could simply become a battle between buyers and sellers inside this lower price range.
However, my overall bias remains unchanged.
I still consider $4017 to be an excellent selling zone, and I remain strongly bearish below $4028. From those levels, I will continue looking for selling opportunities targeting $3944, $3921, $3908, and eventually $3890.
Until then, I have no interest in planning any short-term buying trades. My focus remains entirely on following the higher-timeframe bearish trend.
I hope you found this analysis logical, valuable, and educational. My goal is not only to share a trading plan but also to help you understand the psychology behind every move the market makes.
Good luck for the final trading day of the week. I wish everyone a profitable trading session.
What is your view on Gold? Do you think the bearish trend will continue, or are you expecting a reversal?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
Gold breakdown the daily support Where we are: Gold is at 3,993, down from 4,035. Price has broken the daily support at 3,999 and is trading below it for the first time in this whole fight. The weekly close lands today.
Intermarket
Here is the twist. The macro pressure is actually easing right as price breaks down. The driver split moved from 100% bearish to 79% bearish with 21% now neutral. Tailwind score jumped from 1.0 to 4.5. The dollar has gone flat at 100.77 instead of rising, and VIX is flat. Real yields are still up at 2.32%, but the two biggest weights on gold are no longer pressing harder.
That is a real change after a week of nothing but red on that panel. It does not make the macro bullish, but the wall has cracks in it now.
Daily
Structure is bearish, last high a Lower High, last low a Lower Low. Support at 3,999 now reads negative, meaning price is under it. Resistance is far off at 4,180.
The trendline chart is the entire story today. Price is sitting exactly on the long-term rising support line, the ninth touch. That line has held this whole move up. It is being tested right now, in real time, on the weekly close. This is the make-or-break moment we have been building toward all week.
The multi-timeframe box: 15m has flipped bullish, but 1H, 4H, 1D, and 1W all stay bearish.
Hurst Cycle
This is the bullish counterweight and it is not small. The cycle is at 87% complete and the trough window is flagged OPEN NOW. The next crest is projected about 10 bars out. Last cycle was right-translated, amplitude is expanding, confluence sits at 70%.
In plain terms, the timing model says a cycle low is due right here, right now. That lands on the exact bar where price is testing the nine-touch trendline. When timing and structure line up in the same spot, you pay attention.
H4
Bearish, resistance 4,068, support 4,031, and price is below both. The 4H trendline chart flags S BROKEN at this level. The short-term support gave way.
But notice the 4H last low reads Higher Low, not Lower Low. The structure has not fully collapsed even with the break
Volatility
Still MID VOL, now 55 days against a typical stay of 8.5 days. The coil is at its most extreme reading yet. Daily ATR is 103.1 and gold has used only 38.1 points today, 0.37x, running at 0.84x normal pace. Expected 5-day range from this regime is 3.59%, roughly 143 points.
The market is compressed harder than it has been all year and it is sitting on the line that decides everything.
Bottom Line
Gold broke the daily support and is now standing on the last real floor: the nine-touch rising trendline at 3,993, with the weekly close hours away. That is the whole trade.
Two things are pulling in opposite directions and both are legitimate. On the bear side, the break of 3,999 is real, structure is bearish on four of five timeframes, and the weekly demand zone lost its upper boundary at 4,059. On the bull side, the Hurst trough window is open now, the macro pressure eased from 100% bearish to 79%, the dollar went flat, and the 4H still holds a Higher Low.
The plan: today's weekly close is the signal, not the intraday noise. A close back above 4,059 with that trendline holding turns this into a fake break and a strong buy signal off a nine-touch line with a cycle low. A weekly close below the trendline breaks a structure that has held all year, and the next stop is 3,884, then open air toward 3,453.
Do not front-run it. A coil this tight for 55 days does not resolve quietly, and the expected move from here is roughly 143 points in five days. Whichever way it breaks, it will move fast. Wait for the close, then trade the direction it gives you. XAUUSD (GOLD) M30: CHOCH Confirmation & Premium Supply Greetings, Traders! 📈
We have a highly structural and clean Smart Money Concepts (SMC) setup forming on the 30-Minute (M30) timeframe for Gold (XAUUSD). The market has delivered clear bearish structural shifts, giving us a high-probability short opportunity with a tight invalidation level.
🔍 Market Structure & Technical Breakdown:
Bearish CHOCH (Change of Character): Following a series of internal Breaks of Structure (BOS) and mitigation of the premium Order Block (OB) / Fair Value Gap (FVG) area, price has aggressively broken the major ascending trendline support, confirming a bearish Change of Character (CHOCH) to the downside.
Liquidity & Trendline Sweep: The breakdown through the diagonal support has swept retail buyers, shifting the order flow completely in favor of the sellers.
Key Points of Interest (POIs) / Supply Zones:
Minor Supply (Sell Zone): Around 3,984 area.
Strong Sell Zone (Premium Supply): Located around the 4,015 – 4,021 region. This zone aligns perfectly with the origin of the CHOCH and the retest of the broken structural levels, making it our primary area of interest for a sell trigger.
🎯 Trade Execution Plan & Targets:
We are anticipating a corrective pullback into the Strong Sell Zone to mitigate the remaining supply before the next impulsive leg down.
Entry Zone: Pullback/Retracement into the 3,984 or 4,015 Supply zones (look for lower timeframe confirmation).
Stop Loss (SL): Placed tightly above the supply structure at 4,025.39 (or 4,030.40 depending on your spread and entry model). A tight SL is set to keep risk absolutely minimal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,945.74
Main Target (TP2): 3,900.99 (Major structural liquidity pool).
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
Trade according to your own risk management. We have kept the stop loss very tight on this setup to ensure a highly favorable Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio, meaning minimal risk for a massive potential target. Always wait for your confirmation before entering!
Do you agree with this bias? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇 Hit the like button if you find this analysis helpful! 🚀 Short 
Oil Fell 37% While the Hormuz Blockade Was Still On
OANDA:BCOUSD
The Market Already Faded One Hormuz Blockade.
This Time Is Different - Maybe.
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THE OBSERVATION
Brent peaked near $112 in mid-May. By July 1 it traded at roughly $70.50. That is a 37% collapse in six weeks.
Here is the part worth sitting with: THE BLOCKADE NEVER LIFTED.
The Strait of Hormuz has been contested since late February. Through the entire 37% decline, the disruption was still there. What changed was not the physical situation. What changed was that progress toward a US-Iran settlement drained the premium out of the price while the underlying condition stayed exactly the same.
That is not a market being irrational. That is a market telling you precisely how it prices geopolitical disruption: as a decaying option, not as a permanent cost.
Remember that number. 37% in six weeks, with the disruption intact. It is the base rate for everything that follows.
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WHAT JUST HAPPENED
On July 13 the US reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping and - the part almost nobody read carefully - imposed a 20% toll on cargo transiting the strait.
Brent bounced from roughly $77 to $87.50. It now sits at $85.41.
Look at what that bounce actually is. It retraced roughly 40% of the May-to-July collapse and stopped. RSI is at 50. Dead neutral. The market absorbed the news in 48 hours and went flat.
The market has already decided. It is pricing this as another decaying option, because that is what the last one was.
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THE ARGUMENT AGAINST THE MARKET
Here is the case that this time is structurally different, and I want to be clear that the tape currently disagrees with me.
A blockade and a toll are different financial objects.
A BLOCKADE is binary and reversible. It resolves on diplomacy. Its half-life is a news cycle. Fading it has been profitable for decades because the thing genuinely does go away - and we just watched exactly that happen, in public, over six weeks.
A TOLL is an ad valorem charge on every future cargo. It does not resolve on a handshake. It gets capitalised - into freight rates, into war-risk insurance, into the landed cost of roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. It is a step in the cost curve, not a spike on the chart.
If that distinction is real, then the fade works on the wrong component of the move. The spike decays and the step remains, and $85 is a floor rather than a lower high.
If it is not real - if the toll is rhetoric that is never enforced - then this is May all over again, and the base rate says $75 and then lower.
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THE VARIABLE THAT DECIDES IT
Not the Fed. Not OPEC. Not the next Truth Social post.
Washington says the strait is open. Tehran says vessels must transit channels it controls. On paper both can keep making the case forever.
On the water, the verdict belongs to SHIPOWNERS, INSURERS AND CREWS being asked to sail through an active military standoff. Whether vessels move. Whether underwriters will write the risk. Whether the rules of passage survive the next strike.
That is the observable, and it is not the oil price.
WATCH WAR-RISK INSURANCE PREMIA FOR GULF TRANSITS, AND WATCH WHETHER TANKER DAY RATES HOLD THEIR ELEVATION AFTER THE NEXT DE-ESCALATION HEADLINE.
If the spike fades and the rates do not, the step function is real and it is being capitalised in front of you while everyone stares at the front-month contract.
If the rates fade with the spike, the market was right, I was wrong, and the toll was a headline.
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WHERE THIS DOESN'T GO
Consensus base case is $75-85. Note where we are: $85.41. At the TOP of that band, not through it.
The road to triple digits needs more than a toll - sustained disruption to tanker traffic, damage to production infrastructure, or simultaneous trouble at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
There is also a political governor. With US midterms approaching, triple-digit oil is a tax on consumers, corporate margins and the inflation outlook. Washington has a strong incentive to prevent that, and that incentive is a real constraint on the upside case - not a
detail.
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WHAT WOULD PROVE ME WRONG
- The toll is never enforced. It becomes rhetoric and I built an argument on a press release.
- Insurers and shipowners keep sailing at normal rates. Then the risk is immaterial and the toll is noise.
- Brent breaks $77 and takes out the July 9 low. That is the fade completing, and the base rate wins.
The cleanest disconfirmation is the simplest: if this looks like May by August, I was wrong about the mechanism, not just the timing.
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WHAT I DON'T KNOW
I have the price. I do not have war-risk premia or tanker day rates, which is where this thesis actually lives or dies. Everything above is a structural argument built on the price series and a policy document - which is not the same as evidence.
I am also aware that the tape currently disagrees with me. RSI 50, a stalled bounce, and a 37% precedent all say fade. That is either the opportunity or the refutation, and I do not get to decide which.
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Analysis of market conditions. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, not a signal. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. GOLD: The Seller Runs Out. The Buyer Doesn'tOANDA:XAUUSD
GOLD: A RATES REGIME PRICED OFF DATA THAT ALREADY TURNED
Regime analysis and the July book | XAUUSD W-D-4H-1H
====================================================================
THESIS
Gold's 28% drawdown from January is not a fundamental repricing. It is
a change in who sets the marginal price. Understanding that distinction
is the whole trade, because the two marginal actors have completely
different exhaustion profiles - and only one of them is running out.
====================================================================
I. REGIME IDENTIFICATION: WHAT IS ACTUALLY PRICING GOLD
Gold is not one asset. It is a function of four inputs: real yields,
the dollar, official-sector flow, and crisis premium. Which of those
dominates is not constant. That is the regime, and almost nobody
trading this chart has named which one they are in.
2022 - 2025: OFFICIAL-SECTOR REGIME. Central banks bought ~1,000t
per year. Gold decoupled from real yields to a degree that broke
most models. Rate-based frameworks stopped working, and everyone
quietly stopped using them.
2026: RATES REGIME. Gold recoupled. This drawdown IS the recoupling.
The mechanism is not mysterious. Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz
in late February. Energy repriced. US inflation hit 4.2% y/y - a
three-year high. That forced a hawkish repricing of the Fed path. Real
yields rose, and gold - which yields nothing - repriced against them
mechanically. Every 10bp of real yield increase raises the carrying
cost of a non-yielding asset.
That is a clean, complete, unsentimental explanation for a 28% decline.
No conspiracy, no manipulation, no broken market. Just a factor
regime that changed and a lot of positioning that hadn't noticed.
====================================================================
II. THE REGIME IS RUNNING ON STALE INPUTS
Here is where it gets interesting.
The hawkish repricing was driven by an ENERGY-DRIVEN inflation shock.
That shock has already reversed:
- WTI has collapsed below $69.
- June payrolls printed 57,000 against a 110,000 forecast - a
catastrophic miss that roughly HALVED September hike odds.
- The June FOMC minutes revealed a committee split 9-to-8 on hikes.
Not a hawkish committee. A deadlocked one.
Gold is currently priced off an inflation impulse whose source has
already deflated, and off a hawkish Fed path that a nearly-tied
committee is visibly struggling to justify.
This is the setup that matters: the REGIME is intact, but the INPUT
driving the regime has turned, and price hasn't.
A rates regime does not end because someone declares it over. It ends
when the rate path that sustains it stops being credible.
====================================================================
III. THE FLOW ASYMMETRY - THE ACTUAL EDGE
This is the part I would build a book around.
THE MARGINAL SELLER IS EXHAUSTIBLE.
Gold ETF outflows have run since May. Rolling 90-day flows peaked near
+$30bn in late February and now sit at -$5bn to -$10bn. That seller is
rate-sensitive, mark-to-market, and finite. When the rate view flips,
the selling doesn't slow - it reverses. And ETF holdings remain well
BELOW their pandemic-era peak, meaning positioning is not stretched
and inflow capacity is fully intact.
THE MARGINAL BUYER IS NOT EXHAUSTIBLE.
Central banks never stopped. Not for one month of this drawdown. The
PBoC has now run a 20-month buying streak, ramping from ~1t/month
through February to 5t in March, 8t in April, 14.93t in June - total
holdings 2,346t. Chinese net imports hit 317t in Q1, nearly triple the
prior quarter.
And in May, Goldman found that UK trade data had understated London
vault outflows since August 2025, forcing an upward revision of
sovereign demand to 60 TONNES PER MONTH from 29.
Read that again. The price-insensitive bid was roughly DOUBLE what the
market believed. That is not a forecast. That is a measurement error
that has now been corrected.
Central banks do not respond to FOMC meetings. They accumulate on
decade-long reserve mandates. They are the definition of a price-
insensitive buyer, and there are more of them coming: an OMFIF survey
of 90 central banks and sovereign funds on June 30 found - for the
first time ever - more institutions planning to CUT dollar allocations
than raise them, with a net 30% intending to add gold within two years.
The asymmetry is structural: a finite, rate-sensitive seller against an
infinite, mandate-driven buyer. The seller sets the price today. The
seller does not set the price forever.
====================================================================
IV. THE VOLATILITY REGIME
Realised vol spiked above 50% during the decline. It has since
compressed below 30%. The 20-year average is 17%.
So: vol is elevated versus its own history, but COMPRESSING - and
compressing directly into a scheduled binary event. Gold vol spikes
historically mean-revert.
Compression into a catalyst is not indecision. It is a market waiting.
====================================================================
V. THE EVENT
FOMC: July 28-29. Rate decision Wednesday July 29, 2:00pm ET.
Current target range: 3.50% - 3.75%. Held in June. No SEP at this
meeting - no dot plot to anchor the reaction.
A 9-8 committee split, a no-projection meeting, and compressed vol.
That is close to a definitional coin flip with a fat tail on each side.
SCENARIO TREE (my subjective weights, argue with them):
HAWKISH HOLD (~45%)
Rates unchanged, aggressive forward guidance. Sustains pressure
without new downside momentum. Gold grinds. Range persists.
3,900 - 4,100.
NEUTRAL / DOVISH HOLD (~35%)
Rates unchanged, softer guidance acknowledging the payrolls miss and
energy deflation. This is the regime crack. Real yields fall, the
rate-sensitive seller stops, and there is no supply above.
Target 4,300 - 4,400 (former support, now resistance).
SURPRISE HIKE (~20%)
The deepest downside. Consensus places gold in the 3,895 - 4,000
band on this. Deutsche Bank flags 3,800 on a three-to-four hike path.
Rates regime confirmed and extended.
Note what the tree says: the modal outcome is NOTHING. The distribution
is fat-tailed, not directional. That has a specific implication, and
it is not "pick a side."
====================================================================
VI. THE STRUCTURE ON THE CHART
Descending trendline from the May 11 high converges with the 3,960
shelf around JULY 28.
The apex is the FOMC. That is a calendar fact, not an interpretation.
Levels:
Support shelf 3,955 - 3,995 (tested three times)
Trendline ~4,010, falling ~2 pts per 4H bar
Resistance 4,190, then 4,300 - 4,400
Downside 3,895 - 3,900, then 3,800
One correction to what you will read elsewhere: the "support held three
times therefore support is strong" reasoning is backwards. Each test
CONSUMES resting bids. It does not replenish them. Every stop on this
chart sits in the same place, and it has been advertised for a month.
A sweep through 3,960 that recovers inside the bar is the single most
likely shape of the resolution, and it is engineered to look exactly
like a breakdown.
I want the CLOSE. Not the wick.
Also: do not measure the full triangle. It gives ~3,130 and it is
nonsense. A four-month pattern does not generate a credible 4H target.
====================================================================
VII. HOW TO TRADE IT THIS MONTH
The most useful thing I can say: SEPARATE THE BOOKS. The regime thesis
and the July P&L are different questions, and conflating them is how
people with a correct view still lose money.
STRUCTURAL BOOK (6-18 months)
The rates regime has an expiry date because its input already turned
and its seller is finite. Positioning is not stretched. The official
bid is double what was modelled. This is an accumulation thesis, sized
to survive 3,800. Institutional targets cluster 4,400 - 5,500 with
Deutsche the lone 3,800 dissent - a ~65% dispersion, which is itself
the signal: the payoff is bimodal and nobody has an edge on direction.
JULY BOOK (13 days)
You are not trading a view. You are trading an event with compressed
vol into a deadlocked committee. That argues for CONVEXITY, not
direction: own optionality across the apex rather than picking a side
before the information exists. If options are not in your toolkit,
the honest equivalent is: do nothing, and be ready.
THE BREAK IS NOT THE TRADE. THE BREAK IS THE INFORMATION.
Which way this resolves tells you which regime governs H2. That is
worth more than the 50 points you would make guessing it.
====================================================================
VIII. WHAT KILLS THIS THESIS
- CPI reaccelerates despite crude sub-$69. The energy-deflation leg
of the argument dies, and the hawkish path becomes justified rather
than stale.
- China's SAFE reserve data breaks the 20-month streak. Watch the
first week of the month. That would be the first interruption since
November 2024 and would gut the price-insensitive-buyer argument
outright. This is the single highest-information datapoint in the
entire thesis.
- A sustained break below 3,955 with real yields RISING. Then the
regime is not expiring, it is extending, and I am early - which in
this business is the same as wrong.
- Gold spends late July at 3,970 with vol under 20%. Then this is a
range, not a coil, there is no catalyst resolution, and I have
over-read a calendar coincidence.
====================================================================
IX. WHAT I DO NOT KNOW
Stated plainly, because most posts hide this:
- I do not have live positioning data. CFTC managed-money net length
would materially sharpen the crowding argument and I have not seen
it.
- I do not have the implied vol surface. Whether to own or sell
convexity into July 29 depends entirely on IV vs RV, and I am
reasoning from realised vol reported second-hand.
- I do not have the current 10y TIPS yield. The recoupling claim in
Section I is the load-bearing wall of this entire piece, and it
should be tested with a rolling gold/real-yield beta rather than
asserted from narrative.
- Bank price targets are close to worthless as timing tools. I cite
them for dispersion, not direction.
If you have a terminal, those four inputs would confirm or destroy this
thesis in about twenty minutes. I would rather tell you what would
falsify it than pretend I've already checked.
====================================================================
This is analysis of market conditions and factor regimes. It is not
financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a signal. I am not a
financial advisor. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. FED HAWKISH, WHY GOLD BELOW TRENDLINE?Following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data, Gold managed to stabilize but failed to generate the momentum needed for a meaningful breakout. The market's reaction suggests that investors are looking beyond short-term inflation data and remain focused on the broader Federal Reserve narrative. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation risks have not been fully eliminated, supporting expectations that policy will remain restrictive for longer. With this week's major inflation releases now behind us, the market is temporarily losing macro catalysts, leaving Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed rhetoric as the dominant drivers.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain elevated as friction surrounding the U.S. and Iran continues. While this normally provides some safe-haven support for Gold, recent price action indicates that geopolitical demand has been insufficient to overcome persistent institutional selling. The inability of Gold to capitalize on both weaker inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty suggests that bullish momentum remains fragile.
Technically, Gold continues to trade below the descending trendline on the H2 timeframe, preserving the broader bearish market structure. Recent rebounds have repeatedly stalled beneath the Demand + Trendline resistance around the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement, where sellers continue to defend premium pricing. Until buyers can reclaim this confluence and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), the current recovery appears to be corrective rather than the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue consolidating below the descending trendline before another attempt lower. As long as the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci resistance remains intact, the broader bearish structure favors a move back toward the 4,020 support, followed by the major liquidity zone around 3,980.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A confirmed H2 close above the descending trendline and the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance would weaken the current bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control. Until such confirmation appears, rallies are likely to remain corrective.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation Short 
THE CALM BEFORE THE GOLD BLOODBATH?Throughout this entire week, Gold repeatedly attempted to close above $4087, but failed every single time. From Monday to Wednesday, we did witness several impulsive buying moves, yet every rally into the $4087 region was met with strong rejection. This clearly tells us that sellers are still in control around that level and that institutional buyers are not showing enough interest to support a sustained breakout.
Because of that, I believe a very attractive selling opportunity is developing over the next few sessions. So make sure you read this analysis carefully, because it could help you lock in a high-probability trade with me.
This week, the $4030-$4065 zone has become the main battlefield between buyers and sellers. So far, the market has failed to break below this range, but it has also failed to break above $4065. Price is simply consolidating while both sides continue fighting for control.
The most important question now is, who will win this battle? Buyers or sellers?
One thing you should always remember is that whenever the market spends a long time consolidating in one area, it means a large number of orders are building there. Once that consolidation finally breaks, the market usually delivers a very strong move in the direction of the breakout.
I have been closely watching Gold over the past three days, and according to my analysis, if the bulls were truly strong, the market should have already closed above $4080. Instead, every time price approached that level, sellers stepped in aggressively and rejected the move. Even after several strong buying pushes from the lows, sellers continued to absorb all of that demand.
To me, this is a clear sign that the sellers are currently stronger than the buyers.
Another important observation comes from Tuesday's CPI move. If you look at the 4-hour candle that formed during the CPI release, its low has still not been broken. Instead, Gold has continued retracing higher and repeatedly attempted to move back into buying territory.
After a strong impulsive move, many traders naturally assume the market is only retracing before continuing higher. As a result, they begin buying while treating the origin of that move as a strong support zone, placing their stop losses just below it.
Keeping that psychology in mind, I believe the low of the CPI 4-hour candle, which is around $4014, has become an important liquidity zone. As long as Gold remains above this level, the market can continue attracting more buyers.
However, the moment Gold breaks below $4010, I expect a highly aggressive selling move that could push the market directly toward $3977, $3944, $3920, $3908, and eventually $3890.
The reason is simple.
As you can clearly see, Gold has repeatedly found support around the $3950 region, meaning a significant amount of buy-side stop losses are likely resting below that area. On top of that, Monday's session managed to close above $4000, which encouraged many random retail traders to enter long positions. Most of those traders are still holding their buys with hope.
Based on how Gold has behaved throughout this year, the market has consistently moved toward the side where the largest pool of liquidity was waiting. Looking at the structure formed over the past few weeks, I still consider the overall trend to be bearish.
Most importantly, we have not yet received a valid higher-timeframe buying confirmation.
Yes, buying pressure has appeared several times, but notice when those aggressive buying moves occurred. They mainly happened during high-impact news events. In my opinion, those spikes were strong enough to create FOMO and attract random buyers into the market, while the broader trend remained unchanged.
For that reason, I have no interest in buying Gold unless we see a daily close above $4080.
Until that happens, I will continue looking for selling opportunities and prefer holding positions for larger downside targets because I strongly believe that a major bearish move in Gold is approaching.
I hope you found this psychological analysis logical and that it helped you understand the market from a different perspective. Wishing everyone the very best for Thursday. I hope you all have a profitable trading day.
What is your current view on Gold?
Do you think buyers will finally break above $4080, or are sellers about to take full control?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
Short 
Long 
Gold is coiled tighter Where we are: Gold is at 4,035, down 0.62% on the day. Third straight session lower, but the floor is still there. Barely.
Intermarket
The macro read is unchanged and still ugly. Driver split remains 100% bearish, 0% bullish. Every driver is against gold: real yields at 2.33%, dollar at 100.51, breakevens down, gold/silver up, miners down, gold in euro down, gold versus stocks down.
One small change worth noting. The dollar has come off, from 100.82 to 100.51, and real yields ticked down from 2.36% to 2.33%. Those are the two drivers that matter most for gold, and they are easing slightly. That is the first crack in the bear wall we have seen all week. It is small, but it is something.
Daily
Structure is still bearish, but the panel now shows the last low as a Higher Low and flags an active setup: HL Pullback. That is the first structural change in days. Price made a low, bounced, and is pulling back. If that HL holds, it is the first building block of a bottom.
But here is the honest counterweight. The multi-timeframe box now reads Full Bear: 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D, and 1W are all bearish. Yesterday the 1H was the one green box left. Today even that has flipped. When every single timeframe agrees, the trend is at its strongest and also closest to being overdone. Both things are true at once.
Support is right here at 4,001, resistance is far away at 4,180. Price is inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884, holding the upper half of it now instead of leaning on the bottom like yesterday. That is a small improvement.
The trendline chart is the key one. Price is still sitting right on the long-term rising support line, now tested nine times. Above it, the descending line from the February high keeps pressing down. The squeeze is getting tight. Something has to give soon.
H4
Bearish structure, but same tell as the daily: last low is now a Higher Low. Resistance is 4,068, support is 4,031, and price is right between them. Notice the range keeps tightening. Last week the 4H range was over 350 points. Today resistance and support are 37 points apart.
The fresh demand zone at 4,014 to 4,034 is holding under price. Supply sits at 4,046 to 4,076, then 4,096 to 4,131 above that.
Volatility and Range
This is the part that explains everything. Gold has been in a MID VOL regime for 54 days, when the typical stay is 8.5 days. That is more than six times longer than normal. The market has been grinding in the same volatility state for two months.
Today's range is telling too. Daily ATR is 103.7 points, and gold has only used 40.4 points so far, about 0.39x.Projected range is 95 points, running at 0.92x normal. The panel notes quiet mornings tend to stay quiet.
Here is why this matters. The stats say breakouts are historically strongest from calm regimes. Gold has been coiling for 54 days inside a tightening trendline squeeze with volatility stuck in the middle band. The expected 5-day range from this regime is 3.57%, which is roughly 145 points from here.
Bottom Line
Gold is coiled tighter than it has been all year, and the squeeze cannot last much longer. The trendlines are converging, volatility has been stuck for 54 days against a normal 8.5, and price is pinned between 4,001 support and 4,068 resistance.
The first genuine bullish tell of the week appeared today: a Higher Low on both daily and 4H, plus the dollar and real yields easing off. That is not a reversal, but after three days of nothing but red, it is worth logging.
The offsetting fact is the Full Bear multi-timeframe read. Every timeframe is bearish, which means the sellers have complete control right up until the moment they don't.
The plan: do not force a trade in this squeeze. Ranges this tight punish everyone. Wait for the break. A daily close above 4,068, then 4,131, with the rising trendline holding underneath, turns the HL into a real bottom and opens the door back toward 4,180. A daily close below 4,001 breaks the nine-touch trendline and the weekly demand together, and that is when the move gets fast toward 3,884, then the open air below.
The setup is here. The trigger is not. Let the break come to you, then take it. XAUUSD: Is the Pullback an Opportunity for Sellers to Return?XAUUSD is showing signs of a technical rebound from the support zone around $4,000. However, the H4 structure remains largely unchanged, as the price continues to trade below the downtrend line and has failed to break through the $4,083–$4,093 resistance zone.
Notably, selling pressure emerges quickly whenever gold approaches the downtrend line, creating a clear series of lower highs. This indicates that sellers remain in control of the primary trend, while the current upward movement is merely a corrective phase following the previous decline.
Fundamentally, gold remains under pressure as US bond yields stay elevated. Meanwhile, the market awaits further PPI data and statements from the Federal Reserve to gauge the interest rate trajectory. Reuters also reports that rising oil prices have reignited inflation concerns, fueling expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy for longer, thereby dampening gold's appeal.
If the price rallies to the $4,083–$4,093 zone but fails to close above the downtrend line, selling pressure could intensify, pushing XAUUSD back down to test the $3,933 support level.
Suggested Strategy: Prioritize SELL positions if signs of rejection appear around the $4,083–$4,093 zone. Target: $3,933. Short 
Short 
XAUUSD: Bearish Wave 5 May Persist TodayGold is showing weakness again after failing to hold the recovery structure above the short-term resistance area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that price may be developing a bearish wave 5 move, with sellers still active below the 4,035–4,040 sell zone.
The key idea is simple: gold is trying to rebound, but the structure still favors downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a short recovery after reacting from the lower area, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 4,062 resistance level. Price then started forming lower highs again and is now trading near 4,026.
The support zone around 4,015–4,025 is currently being tested. If this area breaks with clear bearish pressure, gold may continue lower towards the Fibonacci 1.618 target zone around 3,960–3,970.
The sell zone around 4,035–4,040 is important. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish intraday structure remains active.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,035–4,040: sell zone wave 4 and short-term resistance
◌ 4,026: current reaction area
◌ 4,015–4,025: support area under pressure
◌ 4,062: key resistance and bullish invalidation zone
◌ 3,960–3,970: Fibonacci 1.618 target and wave 5 downside area
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish wave setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the recovery failed near resistance.
Wave 1 created the first downside reaction from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed below resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price back into the support zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming around the 4,035–4,040 sell area.
If this zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 3,960–3,970 target.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current support reaction as a reversal yet. Price still needs to reclaim resistance before the bullish view becomes stronger.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,035–4,040 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,035–4,040 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,062 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015
Take profit 2: 3,990
Take profit 3: 3,960–3,970
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,062 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift back into a corrective recovery structure.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bearish intraday setup. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott structure suggests one more downside leg may develop if sellers defend resistance.
The cleaner plan is to avoid chasing price at support and wait for a retest reaction around 4,035–4,040.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci target below.
Share your view below. Long 
Short
Short 
Weaker USD and gold impact market trends.Despite softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Gold failed to attract sustained buying interest. The decline in CPI briefly pressured the U.S. Dollar, but the broader market reaction suggests investors remain cautious rather than aggressively shifting into safe-haven assets. Treasury yields have not declined enough to trigger a meaningful reallocation of capital toward Gold, while expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged. Today's PPI release and comments from Fed officials could provide additional direction, but for now, institutional flows continue to favor confirmation over anticipation.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains confined beneath a well-defined descending trendline on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's recovery failed to produce a decisive breakout, highlighting that sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone around 407x, where the descending trendline converges with Fibonacci retracement and previous demand turned resistance. While the Dollar has softened, Gold has not responded with the strength typically associated with a bullish reversal, suggesting buying momentum remains limited.
As long as price continues trading below this confluence resistance, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A recovery toward 406x–407x could provide another opportunity for sellers if bearish rejection develops. On the downside, the 396x support area remains the next major liquidity target should downside momentum resume.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may extend its recovery toward 406x–407x.
Bearish rejection from the descending trendline could reinforce selling pressure.
A move back toward 396x remains the preferred scenario while resistance holds.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A decisive H4 close above the descending trendline and the 407x resistance zone could invalidate the current bearish bias and open the door for a broader recovery toward the next resistance area.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally
Key Resistance: 406x–407x
Key Support: 396x Short 
Gold Structure stays bearishWhere we are: Gold is at 4,030, down about 0.5% on the day, sitting right on the daily support at 3,999 and inside the bottom of the weekly demand shelf.
The inflation report was softer than expected across every line. Core MoM printed 0% against a 0.2% forecast. Core YoY came in at 2.6% versus 2.8% expected. Headline MoM was -0.4% and headline YoY dropped to 3.5% from 4.2%. That is a clean disinflation print. On paper that is fuel for gold.
Gold sold off instead. When a market gets the news it wanted and still falls, that tells you sellers are in control regardless of the story. That is not a small detail. It means the bounce we were watching for off the demand shelf did not get the follow-through it needed, even with the perfect setup handed to it.
Intermarket
The macro read got worse again. The driver split is now 100% bearish, 0% bullish, 0% neutral. Every single driver on the panel is against gold. Real yields at 2.36% and rising, dollar at 100.82 and rising, breakevens falling, gold/silver rising, miners underperforming, gold in euro terms falling, and gold versus the S&P falling. There is nothing left on the bull side of the ledger.
That is the answer to why soft CPI did not help. Yields and the dollar did not care. Until those two turn, gold is swimming against the current no matter what the inflation data says. The only mild positive left is the forward 20-bar probability at 51.8%, which is basically a coin flip.
Daily
Structure stays bearish, lower high and lower low. Resistance sits far above at 4,180 and support is right here at 3,999, less than 1% away. Price is inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884, but it is now leaning on the lower half of it rather than bouncing from the top.
The trendline chart is the one worth studying today. Price is sitting right on the long-term rising support line that has held since the move started, and it has already touched it nine times. Above it, the descending resistance line from the February high keeps capping every rally. Those two lines are closing in on each other, and price is being squeezed between them. A trendline tested nine times is not a strong line, it is a tired one. Each touch takes a little more out of it.
H4
Bearish structure, lower high and lower low. Resistance is now 4,076, only about 1% up, and support is 3,993. Look how that ceiling keeps dropping. Last week it was 4,120. Now it is 4,076. Lower resistance on every attempt is the market telling you sellers are getting more aggressive, not less.
Price is jammed under supply at 4,046 to 4,076, with more stacked at 4,096 to 4,131 and 4,178 to 4,195 above that. There is a small fresh demand zone right at 4,014 to 4,034 that price is standing on right now. That is the last shelf before 3,993.
The 4H multi-timeframe read is nearly all red: 15m, 4H, 1D, and 1W all bearish, with only the 1H holding a bullish lean. That single green box is the entire bull case right now.
Today's Data
PPI at 18:00 is forecast at 0%, cooling hard from a 1.1% prior. Another soft inflation reading. But watch what happens, because yesterday proved soft data alone is not enough to lift gold. If PPI comes in soft and gold still cannot rally, that is confirmation that sellers own this market and the demand shelf is likely to break.
Warsh testifies again at 19:30. If his tone leans firm on rates, the dollar and yields go up and gold has no cushion left.
Bottom Line
Gold got the soft CPI it needed and could not rally. That is the read of the week. The macro is 100% bearish, structure is bearish on every timeframe but one, resistance keeps stepping lower, and price is now leaning on the bottom of the weekly demand shelf instead of bouncing off the top.
The 3,999 to 3,884 zone is the last line, and it is looking weaker than it did on Monday. Lose 3,884 on a daily close and there is very little between here and the monthly demand at 3,453. That is a wide gap and the move can come fast.
For the bounce case, you now need more than a soft number. You need to see price reclaim 4,076, then 4,131, with real volume behind it. Until that happens, treat every push up into 4,046 to 4,076 as a place where sellers are waiting, with the descending trendline backing them up.
The plan: sellers have the evidence on their side, so rallies into supply are the cleaner trades. Longs need to wait for proof, not hope. Long 
EVERYONE IS BUYING GOLD AGAIN... BUT SHOULD THEY?After Monday's massive sell-off, we witnessed an almost complete recovery in Gold on Tuesday. There is no doubt that the market completely ignored classic price action. Monday's selling volume was extremely strong, and under normal market conditions, Gold should have continued lower after a minor retracement. Instead, we saw a sharp upside spike driven entirely by the CPI news. In my opinion, this was a clear news-driven manipulation rather than a genuine change in trend.
The real question now is: Will Gold continue higher from here, or will the overall bearish trend resume? Let's break down the market psychology in detail so you can have a clear trading plan for the coming sessions.
### 📉 The Overall Market Structure Is Still Bearish
The first thing that stands out to me is the strong bearish market structure that has been developing since last week. If you look carefully at the chart, you'll notice that Gold continues to maintain a bearish structure by respecting its lower highs. Despite several strong bullish rallies, the market has failed to produce any meaningful structural breakout. Every upside move has eventually been rejected, and the bearish framework remains intact.
Most importantly, Gold has not broken any significant lower high yet. As long as that remains the case, sellers continue to control the higher time-frame structure.
I know many traders became bullish after Tuesday's CPI rally because, according to traditional price action, such a strong bullish candle often suggests continuation. But remember what happened on Monday. We witnessed an extremely aggressive selling session, yet instead of continuing lower immediately, Tuesday completely reversed because of the news. That alone tells us that recent price action has been heavily influenced by liquidity and news events rather than clean technical structure.
### 🧠 Understanding the Psychology Behind This Week
From a psychological perspective, I believe the market had a very specific objective at the beginning of this week.
The first target was the liquidity resting below the $4000 psychological level. Many traders entered long positions from the bottom and placed their stop losses below that area. Monday's gap-down opening followed by aggressive selling successfully washed out those buyers.
After Monday's collapse, most retail traders naturally turned bearish. Many jumped into fresh sell positions expecting further downside continuation.
Then Tuesday's CPI news arrived.
The market used that event to trigger a powerful upside rally, trapping almost every random seller who entered after Monday's decline. Now the situation has completely reversed once again. After seeing Tuesday's bullish candle, many traders have become bullish again and are expecting a full trend reversal.
The question is... is this really the beginning of a new uptrend, or is it simply another liquidity trap?
### ⚠️ Why I Still Prefer Selling
Personally, I continue to respect the existing market structure, and because of that, I don't believe Gold is ready for a sustained bullish continuation.
If we analyze Tuesday's rally carefully, Wednesday has already retraced nearly 50% of that entire move. That tells me sellers are still equally strong.
If buyers were truly in control, Gold should have held above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $4058 and continued pushing higher. Instead, the market failed to sustain above that level, showing that buying momentum remains weak.
I believe many traders who wanted to buy on Monday regained confidence after Tuesday's CPI rally. The market may have intentionally created this bullish sentiment simply to attract fresh buyers and generate additional liquidity before moving lower again.
That is exactly why my primary focus remains on selling opportunities.
Tuesday's CPI rally likely attracted a large number of random buyers above the $4000 psychological level. This is extremely important because $4000 is one of the strongest psychological numbers in Gold, where both buyers and sellers actively participate. As a result, a significant amount of liquidity is now resting around that zone, and I believe market makers are watching it very closely.
### 🎯 My Trading Plan For Wednesday
My plan is very straightforward.
I will continue focusing on selling opportunities.
My first expectation is that the market will target the stop losses of traders who are still holding buy positions below the Asian session lows.
After that, I expect the green support levels marked on my chart to produce small temporary buying reactions. These short-term bounces could easily convince traders that a reversal has started, attracting even more buyers.
However, I believe those rallies will simply become opportunities to build additional liquidity before another leg lower.
In my opinion, Gold is likely to continue moving in a zig-zag fashion while gradually creating more downside pressure.
The most important level for me is $4011.
Once Gold manages to close below $4011, I expect a much stronger selling wave to begin. With so much liquidity resting around the $4000 psychological area, that breakdown could trigger panic selling across the market.
### 📌 Final Thoughts
My trading rule remains very simple.
Until Gold clearly shows a confirmed change in market structure, I will not become bullish—no matter how strong any short-term rally appears.
Over the past several weeks, Gold has respected market manipulation far more than traditional price action. That is why understanding market psychology has become much more important than simply following candlestick patterns.
If you can understand where liquidity is resting and why market makers are moving price the way they are, you'll have a much better chance of staying on the right side of the market.
I hope you found this psychological analysis valuable and learned something useful from it.
Good luck for Wednesday, and I hope you all have a profitable trading session.
By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold?
Let me know your view in the comments.
