Short
XAUUSD: Bearish Wave 5 May Persist TodayGold is showing weakness again after failing to hold the recovery structure above the short-term resistance area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that price may be developing a bearish wave 5 move, with sellers still active below the 4,035–4,040 sell zone.
The key idea is simple: gold is trying to rebound, but the structure still favors downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a short recovery after reacting from the lower area, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 4,062 resistance level. Price then started forming lower highs again and is now trading near 4,026.
The support zone around 4,015–4,025 is currently being tested. If this area breaks with clear bearish pressure, gold may continue lower towards the Fibonacci 1.618 target zone around 3,960–3,970.
The sell zone around 4,035–4,040 is important. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish intraday structure remains active.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,035–4,040: sell zone wave 4 and short-term resistance
◌ 4,026: current reaction area
◌ 4,015–4,025: support area under pressure
◌ 4,062: key resistance and bullish invalidation zone
◌ 3,960–3,970: Fibonacci 1.618 target and wave 5 downside area
◌ Above 4,062: area where the bearish wave setup weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the recovery failed near resistance.
Wave 1 created the first downside reaction from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed below resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price back into the support zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming around the 4,035–4,040 sell area.
If this zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 3,960–3,970 target.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current support reaction as a reversal yet. Price still needs to reclaim resistance before the bullish view becomes stronger.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,035–4,040 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,035–4,040 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,062 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015
Take profit 2: 3,990
Take profit 3: 3,960–3,970
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,062 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift back into a corrective recovery structure.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a bearish intraday setup. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott structure suggests one more downside leg may develop if sellers defend resistance.
The cleaner plan is to avoid chasing price at support and wait for a retest reaction around 4,035–4,040.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci target below.
Share your view below. Long 
Short
Short 
Weaker USD and gold impact market trends.Despite softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Gold failed to attract sustained buying interest. The decline in CPI briefly pressured the U.S. Dollar, but the broader market reaction suggests investors remain cautious rather than aggressively shifting into safe-haven assets. Treasury yields have not declined enough to trigger a meaningful reallocation of capital toward Gold, while expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy remain largely unchanged. Today's PPI release and comments from Fed officials could provide additional direction, but for now, institutional flows continue to favor confirmation over anticipation.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains confined beneath a well-defined descending trendline on the H4 timeframe. Yesterday's recovery failed to produce a decisive breakout, highlighting that sellers continue to defend the upper resistance zone around 407x, where the descending trendline converges with Fibonacci retracement and previous demand turned resistance. While the Dollar has softened, Gold has not responded with the strength typically associated with a bullish reversal, suggesting buying momentum remains limited.
As long as price continues trading below this confluence resistance, the broader bearish structure remains intact. A recovery toward 406x–407x could provide another opportunity for sellers if bearish rejection develops. On the downside, the 396x support area remains the next major liquidity target should downside momentum resume.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may extend its recovery toward 406x–407x.
Bearish rejection from the descending trendline could reinforce selling pressure.
A move back toward 396x remains the preferred scenario while resistance holds.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
A decisive H4 close above the descending trendline and the 407x resistance zone could invalidate the current bearish bias and open the door for a broader recovery toward the next resistance area.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally
Key Resistance: 406x–407x
Key Support: 396x Short 
Gold Structure stays bearishWhere we are: Gold is at 4,030, down about 0.5% on the day, sitting right on the daily support at 3,999 and inside the bottom of the weekly demand shelf.
The inflation report was softer than expected across every line. Core MoM printed 0% against a 0.2% forecast. Core YoY came in at 2.6% versus 2.8% expected. Headline MoM was -0.4% and headline YoY dropped to 3.5% from 4.2%. That is a clean disinflation print. On paper that is fuel for gold.
Gold sold off instead. When a market gets the news it wanted and still falls, that tells you sellers are in control regardless of the story. That is not a small detail. It means the bounce we were watching for off the demand shelf did not get the follow-through it needed, even with the perfect setup handed to it.
Intermarket
The macro read got worse again. The driver split is now 100% bearish, 0% bullish, 0% neutral. Every single driver on the panel is against gold. Real yields at 2.36% and rising, dollar at 100.82 and rising, breakevens falling, gold/silver rising, miners underperforming, gold in euro terms falling, and gold versus the S&P falling. There is nothing left on the bull side of the ledger.
That is the answer to why soft CPI did not help. Yields and the dollar did not care. Until those two turn, gold is swimming against the current no matter what the inflation data says. The only mild positive left is the forward 20-bar probability at 51.8%, which is basically a coin flip.
Daily
Structure stays bearish, lower high and lower low. Resistance sits far above at 4,180 and support is right here at 3,999, less than 1% away. Price is inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884, but it is now leaning on the lower half of it rather than bouncing from the top.
The trendline chart is the one worth studying today. Price is sitting right on the long-term rising support line that has held since the move started, and it has already touched it nine times. Above it, the descending resistance line from the February high keeps capping every rally. Those two lines are closing in on each other, and price is being squeezed between them. A trendline tested nine times is not a strong line, it is a tired one. Each touch takes a little more out of it.
H4
Bearish structure, lower high and lower low. Resistance is now 4,076, only about 1% up, and support is 3,993. Look how that ceiling keeps dropping. Last week it was 4,120. Now it is 4,076. Lower resistance on every attempt is the market telling you sellers are getting more aggressive, not less.
Price is jammed under supply at 4,046 to 4,076, with more stacked at 4,096 to 4,131 and 4,178 to 4,195 above that. There is a small fresh demand zone right at 4,014 to 4,034 that price is standing on right now. That is the last shelf before 3,993.
The 4H multi-timeframe read is nearly all red: 15m, 4H, 1D, and 1W all bearish, with only the 1H holding a bullish lean. That single green box is the entire bull case right now.
Today's Data
PPI at 18:00 is forecast at 0%, cooling hard from a 1.1% prior. Another soft inflation reading. But watch what happens, because yesterday proved soft data alone is not enough to lift gold. If PPI comes in soft and gold still cannot rally, that is confirmation that sellers own this market and the demand shelf is likely to break.
Warsh testifies again at 19:30. If his tone leans firm on rates, the dollar and yields go up and gold has no cushion left.
Bottom Line
Gold got the soft CPI it needed and could not rally. That is the read of the week. The macro is 100% bearish, structure is bearish on every timeframe but one, resistance keeps stepping lower, and price is now leaning on the bottom of the weekly demand shelf instead of bouncing off the top.
The 3,999 to 3,884 zone is the last line, and it is looking weaker than it did on Monday. Lose 3,884 on a daily close and there is very little between here and the monthly demand at 3,453. That is a wide gap and the move can come fast.
For the bounce case, you now need more than a soft number. You need to see price reclaim 4,076, then 4,131, with real volume behind it. Until that happens, treat every push up into 4,046 to 4,076 as a place where sellers are waiting, with the descending trendline backing them up.
The plan: sellers have the evidence on their side, so rallies into supply are the cleaner trades. Longs need to wait for proof, not hope. Long 
EVERYONE IS BUYING GOLD AGAIN... BUT SHOULD THEY?After Monday's massive sell-off, we witnessed an almost complete recovery in Gold on Tuesday. There is no doubt that the market completely ignored classic price action. Monday's selling volume was extremely strong, and under normal market conditions, Gold should have continued lower after a minor retracement. Instead, we saw a sharp upside spike driven entirely by the CPI news. In my opinion, this was a clear news-driven manipulation rather than a genuine change in trend.
The real question now is: Will Gold continue higher from here, or will the overall bearish trend resume? Let's break down the market psychology in detail so you can have a clear trading plan for the coming sessions.
### 📉 The Overall Market Structure Is Still Bearish
The first thing that stands out to me is the strong bearish market structure that has been developing since last week. If you look carefully at the chart, you'll notice that Gold continues to maintain a bearish structure by respecting its lower highs. Despite several strong bullish rallies, the market has failed to produce any meaningful structural breakout. Every upside move has eventually been rejected, and the bearish framework remains intact.
Most importantly, Gold has not broken any significant lower high yet. As long as that remains the case, sellers continue to control the higher time-frame structure.
I know many traders became bullish after Tuesday's CPI rally because, according to traditional price action, such a strong bullish candle often suggests continuation. But remember what happened on Monday. We witnessed an extremely aggressive selling session, yet instead of continuing lower immediately, Tuesday completely reversed because of the news. That alone tells us that recent price action has been heavily influenced by liquidity and news events rather than clean technical structure.
### 🧠 Understanding the Psychology Behind This Week
From a psychological perspective, I believe the market had a very specific objective at the beginning of this week.
The first target was the liquidity resting below the $4000 psychological level. Many traders entered long positions from the bottom and placed their stop losses below that area. Monday's gap-down opening followed by aggressive selling successfully washed out those buyers.
After Monday's collapse, most retail traders naturally turned bearish. Many jumped into fresh sell positions expecting further downside continuation.
Then Tuesday's CPI news arrived.
The market used that event to trigger a powerful upside rally, trapping almost every random seller who entered after Monday's decline. Now the situation has completely reversed once again. After seeing Tuesday's bullish candle, many traders have become bullish again and are expecting a full trend reversal.
The question is... is this really the beginning of a new uptrend, or is it simply another liquidity trap?
### ⚠️ Why I Still Prefer Selling
Personally, I continue to respect the existing market structure, and because of that, I don't believe Gold is ready for a sustained bullish continuation.
If we analyze Tuesday's rally carefully, Wednesday has already retraced nearly 50% of that entire move. That tells me sellers are still equally strong.
If buyers were truly in control, Gold should have held above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $4058 and continued pushing higher. Instead, the market failed to sustain above that level, showing that buying momentum remains weak.
I believe many traders who wanted to buy on Monday regained confidence after Tuesday's CPI rally. The market may have intentionally created this bullish sentiment simply to attract fresh buyers and generate additional liquidity before moving lower again.
That is exactly why my primary focus remains on selling opportunities.
Tuesday's CPI rally likely attracted a large number of random buyers above the $4000 psychological level. This is extremely important because $4000 is one of the strongest psychological numbers in Gold, where both buyers and sellers actively participate. As a result, a significant amount of liquidity is now resting around that zone, and I believe market makers are watching it very closely.
### 🎯 My Trading Plan For Wednesday
My plan is very straightforward.
I will continue focusing on selling opportunities.
My first expectation is that the market will target the stop losses of traders who are still holding buy positions below the Asian session lows.
After that, I expect the green support levels marked on my chart to produce small temporary buying reactions. These short-term bounces could easily convince traders that a reversal has started, attracting even more buyers.
However, I believe those rallies will simply become opportunities to build additional liquidity before another leg lower.
In my opinion, Gold is likely to continue moving in a zig-zag fashion while gradually creating more downside pressure.
The most important level for me is $4011.
Once Gold manages to close below $4011, I expect a much stronger selling wave to begin. With so much liquidity resting around the $4000 psychological area, that breakdown could trigger panic selling across the market.
### 📌 Final Thoughts
My trading rule remains very simple.
Until Gold clearly shows a confirmed change in market structure, I will not become bullish—no matter how strong any short-term rally appears.
Over the past several weeks, Gold has respected market manipulation far more than traditional price action. That is why understanding market psychology has become much more important than simply following candlestick patterns.
If you can understand where liquidity is resting and why market makers are moving price the way they are, you'll have a much better chance of staying on the right side of the market.
I hope you found this psychological analysis valuable and learned something useful from it.
Good luck for Wednesday, and I hope you all have a profitable trading session.
By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold?
Let me know your view in the comments.
Short 
GOLD FACING RESISTANCE: BREAKOUT SOON?Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand, institutional flows remain reluctant to abandon the U.S. dollar. Treasury yields continue to hold at elevated levels while markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious policy stance until inflation shows more convincing signs of easing. As a result, recent strength in gold appears to be driven more by short-term positioning than by a structural shift in macro fundamentals.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the H2 timeframe. Although buyers managed to trigger a short-term Change of Character (CHoCH), price remains trapped beneath the descending trendline, where a confluence of previous Demand, Fibonacci 0.618, and dynamic resistance continues to cap upside momentum. This area represents a key institutional decision point rather than a simple resistance level.
The repeated attempts to challenge the trendline suggest buyers are gradually building pressure. However, without a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS), the broader bearish market structure remains intact. Today's final trading session of the week also increases the probability of liquidity sweeps and false breakouts before the weekly close, making confirmation more important than anticipation.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could extend its recovery toward the Demand + Descending Trendline + Fibonacci 0.618 confluence. If sellers successfully defend this area once again, price is likely to rotate back toward the 0.50 Fibonacci support, with the 0.382 level becoming the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Should buyers finally secure a decisive H2 close above the descending trendline and confirm a Break of Structure (BOS), it would suggest bearish momentum is fading. Such a breakout could trigger short covering and open the door for a broader recovery into higher premium zones. Until that confirmation appears, any breakout should be treated cautiously, particularly during Friday's lower-liquidity conditions.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Short 
407X ZONE - Will CPI trigger gold's next selling opportunity?Today's U.S. CPI release is expected to be the key macro catalyst for Gold this week. After yesterday's sharp decline, buyers have started to defend price around the lower boundary of the descending channel, producing a technical rebound. However, the recovery remains relatively weak, suggesting institutional flows are still waiting for inflation data before committing to a larger directional move.
If CPI comes in above expectations, markets could further reinforce the "higher-for-longer" Federal Reserve narrative, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while limiting Gold's upside. On the other hand, softer inflation could weaken the dollar and trigger a relief rally. Even so, one inflation report alone is unlikely to completely change the broader macro outlook, with PPI and Retail Sales still ahead later this week.
Technically, Gold continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel on the H4 timeframe. The recent bounce from the lower trendline has stabilized short-term selling pressure, but buyers have yet to reclaim the Demand + Fibonacci 0.382 area. The 4,070 region remains the key confluence of Demand, Descending Trendline, and Fibonacci 0.50–0.618, making it the primary institutional supply zone to monitor. Unless price confirms a Break of Structure (BOS) above this resistance cluster, the current recovery is likely to remain a corrective rally within the broader bearish trend.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
A softer-than-expected CPI could lift Gold toward the 4,070 resistance cluster, where the Demand + Trendline + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 confluence may attract renewed selling interest. As long as this area continues to cap price, the broader bearish structure remains valid, with the 3,970–3,980 support zone likely to be retested.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to secure a confirmed H4 close above 4,070 and break the descending trendline with a clear BOS, bearish momentum could fade, opening the door for a deeper recovery toward higher premium levels. Until then, any rally should be treated as a potential Sell the Rally opportunity rather than evidence of a confirmed trend reversal.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation
LucasGrayTrading Short 
XAUUSD: ABC Recovery Forming After Elliott DropGold is trying to recover after completing a sharp bearish Elliott wave sequence near the lower price area. From Kelly’s view, the market has already reacted from the recent low, but the current move still looks more like an ABC corrective recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
The key idea is simple: gold may continue to rebound in the short term, but the reaction around each resistance zone will decide whether buyers can keep control.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold previously moved in a strong bearish sequence, creating lower highs and lower lows before reaching the final wave 5 area near the lower base. After that, price started to recover and is now forming a short-term ABC structure.
Price is currently trading around 4,027, close to the small sell zone near 4,038. If gold can hold above the buy wave C area around 4,011, the recovery may continue towards the higher reaction zones.
The important resistance above is the Elliott wave completed sell zone around 4,060–4,070. This is where buyers need to prove strength, because rejection from this area may bring another pullback.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,011: buy wave C zone and short-term support
◌ 4,027: current reaction area
◌ 4,038: nearest sell zone
◌ 4,060–4,070: Elliott completed zone and main resistance
◌ 3,985–3,990: lower support if wave C fails
◌ Above 4,070: area where recovery gains stronger quality
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a bearish 5-wave move near the lower low. After that, the market is now building an ABC correction.
Wave A created the first rebound from the low.
Wave B pulled back into the current structure.
Wave C may develop from the 4,011 area if buyers defend support.
If wave C holds and price breaks above 4,038, gold may continue towards 4,060–4,070. However, if price fails to hold 4,011, the ABC recovery weakens and gold may retest the lower base again.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold the buy wave C zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,011–4,020 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low
Take profit 1: 4,038
Take profit 2: 4,060–4,070
Take profit 3: 4,090 if momentum expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,011 and fails to reclaim this area, the ABC structure loses quality. In that case, price may return towards 3,985–3,990 before forming a new base.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a short-term ABC recovery setup after a completed bearish Elliott wave. The market is no longer in clean sell momentum at the low, but buyers still need to confirm strength through resistance.
The cleaner plan is to watch the reaction around 4,011 first. If buyers defend this zone, gold may continue recovering towards the sell zones above.
Gold is forming an ABC rebound.
If wave C holds, the next move may continue towards 4,038 and 4,060.
Share your view below. Long 
Long 
MASON XAUUSD – Bearish Trend Targets Fibonacci Range
XAUUSD is trading around 4,017 after breaking below the rising trendline support. The short-term structure has shifted back into bearish pressure, and price is now moving below the broken support area.
The priority view remains sell with the current bearish structure, especially if gold retests the 4,040–4,045 zone and fails to recover above it.
Technical View
Gold has broken below the rising trendline that previously supported the recovery structure. This is an important bearish signal because the buyers failed to defend the trendline, and the market is now trading under the broken structure.
After the breakdown, price dropped sharply and is now consolidating around the 4,001–4,006 buy order zone. This area may create a short-term reaction, but the overall structure still favors sellers while price stays below the broken trendline and Fibonacci resistance.
The 4,040–4,045 area is the key sell zone on the chart. This zone is important because it was previous support, now turning into resistance, and it also aligns with the Fibonacci reaction area. If gold retests this zone and rejects, it may confirm the next lower high before another bearish leg.
The 4,001–4,006 area is the nearest support. If price breaks below this zone, selling pressure may continue toward the expected price range around 3,945–3,955, which aligns with the deeper Fibonacci 2.618 extension.
The main idea is simple: as long as gold stays below 4,040–4,045, the recovery remains weak, and the downside path remains active.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,017
Sell zone: 4,040–4,045
Broken trendline resistance: 4,040–4,060
Nearest support: 4,001–4,006
Fibonacci 1.618 reaction: around 4,017
Expected price range: 3,945–3,955
Fibonacci 2.618 target: 3,945–3,955
Invalidation: above 4,065
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,040–4,045
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, failed recovery above the broken trendline, or price staying below the Fibonacci resistance zone.
SL: above 4,065
TP1: 4,001–4,006
TP2: 3,970–3,980
TP3: 3,945–3,955
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks below 4,001 directly, wait for a retest of this area as resistance before looking for sell continuation toward 3,970 and the expected Fibonacci range around 3,945–3,955.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price remains below the broken trendline and below the 4,040–4,045 sell zone. A short-term buy reaction may appear around 4,001–4,006, but it should only be treated as a scalp unless gold breaks back above 4,065.
Final View
Overall, gold is back under bearish pressure after breaking the rising trendline. The cleaner plan is to wait for a retest of 4,040–4,045 and watch for rejection. As long as this zone holds as resistance, the downside target toward 4,001, 3,970, and 3,945 remains in focus.
Will gold reject from the broken trendline zone, or break below 4,001 directly toward the Fibonacci 2.618 range?
Short 
GOLD AT DOWNTREND LINE – CAN CPI CAUSE BULLISH REVERSAL?Following last week's sharp decline, gold has started to stabilize after holding the key support area around 3980–4000. On the H2 timeframe, price remains within a short-term descending channel, but bearish momentum has weakened as buyers continue to defend the recent lows. This suggests that a technical recovery could develop if support continues to hold.
The market's primary focus today is the U.S. CPI report, one of the most influential economic releases for the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Until the data is released, price action is likely to remain cautious and range-bound. A softer-than-expected CPI could weaken the U.S. dollar, allowing gold to break above the descending trendline and extend its recovery toward higher resistance levels. Conversely, stronger inflation data may strengthen the dollar and renew selling pressure on gold.
📍 Key Levels:
🔹 3980 – 4000
Key short-term support and preferred buying area.
🔹 4040 – 4055
First resistance and the descending trendline breakout zone.
🔹 4065 – 4080
Next upside target if bullish momentum is confirmed.
🔹 3940 – 3960
Major support if the bearish scenario resumes.
✅ Preferred Scenario:
✔️ Gold continues holding above 3980–4000, maintaining the current recovery structure.
✔️ A confirmed breakout above the descending trendline would strengthen bullish momentum and open the way toward 4040–4080.
✔️ However, if CPI surprises to the upside and gold loses the current support zone, price could revisit 3940–3960 before attracting fresh buying interest. Long 
XAUUSD: Bearish Trendline Continues to Cap Recovery MomentumXAUUSD has bounced off the support zone around 3,960–3,980, but the current rebound is insufficient to alter the bearish structure on the H4 timeframe. Prices remain below the descending trendline—which has repeatedly triggered selling pressure—while the area above is further reinforced by the Ichimoku Cloud and a resistance zone around 4,087–4,094.
Notably, recent highs have been progressively lower. Whenever gold approaches the bearish trendline, buying momentum quickly fades and sellers step back in. This suggests the current rally is likely just a technical rebound following the sharp decline, rather than a confirmed reversal signal.
On the macroeconomic front, gold remains under pressure from the US dollar and US bond yields, which are holding at elevated levels ahead of inflation data. Rising oil prices have also fueled concerns that the Fed may need to maintain a hawkish monetary policy for longer, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
If the price rallies to the 4,087–4,094 range but fails to secure a firm close above the bearish trendline, selling pressure could drive XAUUSD back toward the 3,953.7 level. This is a critical support level and a clear downside target on the chart.
Suggested Strategy: Sell around 4,087–4,094 upon signs of rejection; Take Profit (TP) at 3,953.7; invalidate the trade if the price closes above 4,110 on the H4 timeframe. Short 
XAUUSD: Long-term trend line continues to exert pressureFollowing a brief rebound late last week, XAUUSD once again approached the downtrend line extending from late June but failed to achieve a breakout. Prices quickly reversed and are currently hovering just above the short-term support zone around 4,058, indicating cautious buying sentiment ahead of a series of key US economic data releases this week.
Fundamentally, the market favors holding the USD as US bond yields remain elevated and investors await the CPI report and fresh signals from the Federal Reserve. Reuters also notes that the dollar continues to be supported by expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer, prompting a temporary shift of capital away from non-yielding assets like gold.
On the H4 timeframe, the price remains below the downtrend line and has yet to clear the 4,058–4,080 resistance zone. This area also represents an Ichimoku convergence point, raising the likelihood of another rejection. Should selling pressure persist in this zone, XAUUSD could break through the nearest support level and extend its decline toward the 3,965 area.
Entry: Sell around 4,058–4,080 upon a rejection signal.
TP: 3,965
SL: Above 4,100 Short 
BEFORE YOU BUY GOLD... READ THISYesterday, the market completely invalidated the key support zone that I shared, which was between $4093 and $4116. Instead of respecting that support, Gold opened with a gap-down below the zone. As a result, what was supposed to be a strong support area immediately turned into a strong resistance.
Overall, anyone who was holding buy positions from last week's lows, especially traders who were using $4000 as their stop-loss level, got trapped badly on Monday. We witnessed a very aggressive sell-off throughout the session. Looking at that price action, I don't believe Gold is ready for a meaningful recovery just yet. Instead, I expect the market to continue attracting small buyers before extending its bearish move.
Gold has been holding above the $3950 support area for some time now, but I believe that level is likely to break in the coming sessions.
For me, the trading plan remains very simple. As long as Gold stays below $4055, I will continue looking for selling opportunities on every rally because I believe the market's primary objective is still to trap buyers.
The market tried several times to hold above the important $4055 to $4080 support zone, but every recovery attempt failed. Yesterday's sharp decline confirmed that buyers currently lack the strength to regain control. More importantly, it suggests that institutional players are not interested in supporting a short-term bullish trend. Instead, their focus appears to be pushing the market lower while trapping every new buyer entering too early.
Now let's discuss my short and simple trading plan for Tuesday.
Considering yesterday's aggressive sell-off and respecting the current price action, I don't expect Gold to suddenly recover and begin a strong bullish rally. If that happens, it would represent a complete manipulation move rather than a healthy price action recovery.
From both a psychological and price action perspective, my expectation is slightly different.
Right now, Gold is fluctuating around the $4000 level, creating confusion between buyers and sellers. Yesterday's aggressive decline has changed market sentiment significantly. Whenever the market makes such a large impulsive move, it rarely continues moving aggressively in the same direction immediately afterward. Instead, it usually spends some time creating liquidity before the next major move begins.
Because of that, I expect Gold to show a limited upside correction first. The purpose of this move would likely be to trap the sellers who entered near yesterday's closing prices while simultaneously attracting fresh buyers back into the market.
Notice that Gold only briefly broke below $4000 before quickly recovering back above it. That temporary breakdown likely convinced many traders that the downside move had ended, encouraging them to enter fresh buy positions once the price reclaimed $4000.
In my opinion, Gold may extend this recovery toward the $4030 to $4040 area. However, I believe that move will simply create another selling opportunity before the market reverses lower once again. My expectation is that Gold will eventually move back below $4000 after that temporary recovery.
This entire trading plan is based purely on price action and market psychology.
I hope you found today's analysis logical and helpful. Wishing everyone the very best for Tuesday's trading session. Trade patiently, manage your risk carefully, and let the market come to your levels instead of chasing price.
By the way, what's your trading plan for Gold this Tuesday?
Let me know your view in the comments.
Short 
GOLD IS ABOUT TO TRAP EVERYONE AGAIN... HERE'S WHYLast week, sellers tried their best to push Gold lower, but at the same time, buyers also showed impressive strength. Most importantly, Gold managed to deliver a weekly close above our key support level of $4080.
Overall, if I look at last week's price action, it is clear that the bulls showed strong participation. Even after such heavy selling pressure, the market managed to recover and close with bullish momentum. That tells me buyers are still in control. So, let's discuss whether Gold is more likely to buy or sell next week and perform a complete psychological breakdown to understand how we can catch the best trading opportunities.
The biggest trap of last week was actually created on Monday. If you noticed, Gold performed an almost perfect liquidity sweep around $4200 before showing a strong rejection and selling move. Looking at the entire week, the market formed a clear lower high structure. Because of that, there's no doubt that many traders are still holding sell positions from around $4200, with stop losses placed above that level, expecting a much bigger downside move.
At the same time, every trader following traditional price action and trendline analysis likely entered fresh sell positions on every pullback. As I have shown on the chart, many traders are expecting the market to react from that trendline and are probably hoping for a gap-down opening on Monday.
However, I believe they are missing one very important detail.
During Friday's closing session, buying volume increased significantly. The 4-hour candle closed as a strong bullish hammer, clearly showing that buyers stepped in aggressively near the weekly close. More importantly, the downside liquidity has already been taken.
The sharp decline we witnessed last week was mainly designed to trap random buyers who entered too early. Those stop losses have already been hunted. Now, the majority of fresh stop losses are sitting above the market because so many traders are currently holding sell positions. In my opinion, trapping those sellers has become the next logical objective for smart money.
My plan for next week is very simple.
As long as Gold remains above the $4078 to $4116 support zone, I remain strongly bullish. Personally, I expect Monday's opening to be bullish, and I wouldn't even be surprised to see a gap-up opening specifically to trap sellers who are still holding positions based on the lower high structure.
I expect an aggressive bullish move after the market opens, which could quickly push Gold toward the $4163 to $4183 resistance zone. Around that area, we may see some short-term consolidation or attract a few fresh sellers, but I believe that would simply be part of the process before the next continuation move higher.
Most importantly, I am expecting a breakout above $4200 this week.
Remember, during the week of June 22, Gold produced a strong rejection from that area. Because of that previous rejection, many traders have already entered fresh sell positions after seeing another rejection from $4200 last week. That tells me a significant amount of liquidity is now resting above $4200, and I believe smart money will eventually target that liquidity.
Even if the market breaks the lower high structure and then pauses, consolidates, or even creates a small fake bearish move, I would simply view that as liquidity creation before another bullish continuation.
Overall, my outlook remains bullish, and I expect Gold to break above $4200, move beyond $4220, and potentially extend toward $4274 during the upcoming week.
I hope you enjoyed this short and simple psychological trading plan for the upcoming week. Hopefully, it helps you prepare for the trading sessions ahead.
I sincerely wish everyone a profitable trading week. Trade patiently, always respect your risk management and money management rules, and don't let emotions control your decisions.
By the way, what's your view on Gold for next week?
Let me know your opinion in the comments.
GOLD HOLDS 409X, BULLISH - CAN BULLS REACH 4200?Following the rejection from the 4135–4145 resistance zone, gold remains in a constructive short-term uptrend as price continues to defend the 4090–4100 breakout support area. The inability of sellers to break below this key support suggests that the recent decline is still a healthy pullback rather than a confirmed bearish reversal, while buyers remain in control of the broader short-term structure.
The upcoming week will be driven by several high-impact U.S. economic releases, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales, all of which are expected to generate significant volatility for both the U.S. Dollar and gold. From a technical perspective, the preferred scenario remains bullish as long as price continues to hold above support. A decisive breakout above 4135–4145 would likely confirm renewed buying momentum and pave the way toward higher resistance levels.
📍 Key Levels:
🔹 4090 – 4100
Primary support zone and preferred buying area.
🔹 4135 – 4145
Immediate resistance. A breakout would confirm bullish continuation.
🔹 4170 – 4185
First upside target.
🔹 4200 – 4220
Major higher-timeframe resistance zone.
✅ Preferred Scenario:
✔️ Gold continues holding above the 4090–4100 support zone.
✔️ A sustained breakout above 4135–4145 could extend the rally toward 4170–4185, with 4200–4220 as the next major upside objective.
✔️ If price loses the 4090 support, a deeper correction toward 4050–4060 may develop before buyers attempt to regain control. Long 
CPI - GOLD NEXT WEEK: BREAKOUT OR SELLOFF?The trading week of July 13–17 is expected to be one of the most important of the month as markets prepare for a series of key U.S. economic releases, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. These reports are likely to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. If inflation remains sticky and consumer spending continues to show resilience, markets could reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative, supporting both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while keeping pressure on Gold. Conversely, softer inflation and weaker economic data could weaken the dollar and provide room for a broader recovery in precious metals.
From a technical perspective, Gold finished last week trapped within its broader bearish structure. Although buyers repeatedly defended the 4,100 psychological level and attempted to extend the recovery, every advance toward the Demand + Fibonacci + Descending Trendline resistance cluster was met with strong selling pressure. This suggests institutional sellers continue to defend premium pricing, preventing a confirmed trend reversal. On the downside, the 4,040 support zone has remained resilient, repeatedly attracting buying interest and preventing a breakdown. As a result, Gold is entering the new week compressed between major resistance and key support, with both sides waiting for a macro catalyst.
The upcoming inflation and consumer spending data could finally provide the catalyst needed to resolve this consolidation. Whether Gold breaks above the descending trendline or loses the key support zone will likely depend on how the market reassesses the Fed's policy outlook after next week's economic releases.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
If CPI and PPI continue to support a stronger U.S. dollar, Gold could once again face rejection around the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster before retesting the 4,040 support area. A confirmed break below this zone would reinforce the broader daily bearish trend.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Should inflation ease more than expected and Retail Sales disappoint, Gold may finally break above the Demand + Descending Trendline confluence, confirming a bullish break of structure and opening the way toward the 0.786 Fibonacci resistance before encountering the next institutional supply zone.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait Confirmation Short 
