Bitcoin chart analysis JUNE 26Hello
It's a Bitcoin Guide.
My analysis is optimized for TradingView.
If you press the Replay button, you can check real-time movements.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
In the bottom left, marked with a purple finger, I have connected the strategy exactly at the entry point of the long position I entered on June 25th, which is $58,032.3.
I have provided the key plot points and prices.
*For those currently holding a long position:
1) Please pay attention to the purple parallel lines and the green parallel line support lines.
2) A vertical rise is expected if the rebound is successful after touching the marked zone 1.
A strong rise is expected if the rebound is successful after touching zone 2.
3) Since the price is open to the final bottom zone of $56,859.1 from the point of breaking the light blue support line, please check the parallel line support lines.
4) Currently, a MACD dead cross is in progress on the daily chart.
Even if it only consolidates without breaking the light blue support line,
it could rise again after tomorrow.
If the signal is ignored, it needs to touch the Top zone very strongly and rise above a "Great" level during the weekend.
5) I have left a rough movement path with the pink finger,
so I suggest you manage your position by utilizing the prices on the right.
Please use my analysis post merely as a reference and for practical use.
I hope you operate safely by adhering to trading principles and mandatory stop-losses.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
Thank you. 
Long
Short
DON'T SHORT GOLD UNTIL YOU READ THISFor the last two weeks, gold has been under continuous selling pressure, which has caused many traders to panic sell. The big question now is whether gold will continue its decline this week or if we are about to see a reversal. Let's break it down in detail.
To be honest, the area from which gold found support last week is likely to act as a temporary support zone for now. If you study gold's price action throughout this year, you'll notice a recurring pattern: whenever an important support level breaks, the market often stages a short-term recovery before continuing its larger trend. This usually happens because the market needs to attract buyers and create fresh liquidity before making its next move.
Recently, gold broke our important $4024 support level. After that breakdown, the market spent some time consolidating around the $4000 area before finally showing a strong upside move on Friday. In my opinion, this wasn't a random bounce. The $4000 level is a major psychological price, and once it broke, many traders aggressively jumped into short positions expecting a much larger decline. The market then pushed higher to trap those late sellers. At the same time, buyers started stepping back into the market, which is another reason why we saw strength after the consolidation. Because of this, I believe gold still has the potential to move higher in the short term, mainly to trap the traders who randomly entered selling positions last week and are still holding them.
One of the biggest reasons behind my bullish short-term view is the overall market psychology. The last time gold broke the $5000 level, we witnessed a major sell-off. That previous move has made many traders extremely aggressive around the $4000 area, with most expecting another significant decline after the recent breakdown. However, I don't believe the market will repeat the exact same behavior this time. Instead, I think it will first focus on trapping those aggressive sellers before deciding its next major direction.
Last week itself, I noticed several signs of a potential sell trap. From Monday onwards, the market never swept any significant highs and continued forming lower highs throughout the week. Even Tuesday's opening was below $4200, and from there gold experienced a straight decline. On Friday, the market closed around $4096, which is just below the important psychological level of $4100. Markets often attract a large number of traders near psychological levels, especially before the weekend, because many prefer to build overnight positions with stop losses placed around those round numbers. Looking at last week's overall behavior, I have very little doubt that a large number of traders entered overnight short positions near Friday's close.
What's interesting is that on Monday, gold started moving lower again without first sweeping last week's high. This strongly suggests that those overnight sellers are still confidently holding their positions. Whenever I see this type of positioning, my attention immediately shifts toward the possibility of a seller trap. Markets often move against the majority before making their real directional move, and I believe that's exactly what could happen this week.
My Monday trading plan is very straightforward. As I've mentioned before, the $4025 level is extremely important. As long as gold remains above this level, my overall bias stays bullish. The $4034-$4044 zone is my primary support area, and I'll be looking for buying opportunities there with proper confirmation. At the same time, if you're a conservative trader, I'd recommend avoiding trades between $4044 and $4067 because, based on the current price action, momentum remains choppy within this range and the market can easily produce false moves. However, if gold delivers a strong breakout above $4067 with solid momentum, I'll be comfortable buying the breakout and will look to target the $4080, $4096, and $4128 levels. The only thing I want to see before chasing those targets is a clean breakout supported by strong bullish momentum.
Because of this, my overall bias remains bullish above $4020. As I mentioned last week, the $4084 level is extremely important. If the market can hold above $4020 and then deliver a strong close above $4084, I believe sellers could get trapped very quickly, leading to a sharp zig-zag upside move. Once that confirmation arrives, the market should have enough momentum to begin a stronger directional rally.
Overall, I'm expecting gold to eventually move towards the $4280 region in the coming sessions. The only condition for this bullish outlook is that the market continues holding above $4020 and successfully reclaims $4084 with a convincing close. If both conditions are met, I believe we could see a very clean upside move from there.
I hope you found this analysis logical and helpful. Wishing everyone a profitable week ahead.
What's your plan for gold this week? Are you bullish, bearish, or waiting for confirmation? Let me know in the comments!
Gold Bounced Off Demand ,What Comes NextGold Bounced Off Demand, Hit the First Wall, and Now 4,097 Decides What Comes Next
The bounce off the weekly demand did its job. Gold swept the lows below 4,000, found buyers exactly where the map said they would be, and pushed back up into the first real test. That test is right here, right now. Price has rallied into the H4 supply at 4,060 to 4,097, swept through the lower half of it, and is now stalling at the top of that band. One level decides the next move: 4,097. Above it or below it, the trade is clean.
THE BOUNCE THAT WORKED, AND ITS LIMITS
Price swept the weekly demand at 4,059 to 3,884, reacted sharply, and the intraday timeframes responded immediately. The 15m and 1H are both bullish, the first two timeframes to break out of the Full Bear alignment that had dominated this entire correction. That is the footprint of real buying pressure at a real level, not just short covering noise. The bounce is legitimate.
But the H4 is still bearish. The 1D is still bearish. The 1W is still bearish. Three of the five timeframes that matter most are still pointing down, and the overall structure remains a correction until something structural changes. So this is a bounce inside a bearish correction, which means every level overhead is resistance until proven otherwise, and the burden of proof sits firmly on the buyers.
THE LEVEL THAT DECIDES THIS WEEK
The H4 supply at 4,060 to 4,097 is the first gate, and price is sitting right at the top of it after sweeping through it. Watch 4,097 closely. A clean break and hold above it opens the path toward the second supply cluster at 4,178 to 4,195, the next shelf the bounce has to clear before it can even think about the daily supply wall at 4,236 to 4,363. That daily supply is the level that would make this bounce structurally meaningful, and it is still well overhead.
If 4,097 holds as resistance and price rolls back from here, the bounce fades into the demand zone. Support sits at 4,000 and the upper edge of the weekly demand at 4,059. A clean rejection at the H4 supply keeps the lower high sequence intact and puts the bears back in control. That is still the higher probability path with three bearish HTF timeframes above.
WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE BIAS
Nothing changes on the higher timeframe until one of two things happens. Either the daily supply at 4,236 to 4,363 is reclaimed and held, which flips the daily structure and converts this bounce into a genuine reversal. Or price loses the floor at 3,884, which voids the bounce thesis entirely and opens the next leg lower toward the monthly demand at 3,453 to 3,281. Everything between those two extremes is still the range, and the range belongs to neither side cleanly.
The honest read is that confirmation of any reversal has not arrived. The demand zone held, the intraday timeframes have lifted, and the bounce is real, but a bounce is not a bottom until the structure above it breaks. Right now the H4 supply is the structure above it, and it has not broken. Until 4,097 gives way and holds on a close, every long here is a counter trend trade with a defined ceiling, not a trend change.
Gold Holds $4,050 as Buyers Attempt RecoveryGold is trying to stabilise after bouncing from below $4,000. The key support now sits around $4,040–4,050, where buyers need to keep control to extend the rebound.
Softer USD and lower yields after US PCE data have reduced pressure on gold, giving room for a short-term recovery attempt.
Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: $4,040 – $4,050
Stop Loss: $4,000
Take Profit 1: $4,080
Take Profit 2: $4,110 Long 
Short
XAUUSD H4 — Liquidity Zones Decide The Next MoveXAUUSD H4 — Liquidity Zones Decide The Next Move
Gold is trading around $4,088 after recovering from the low near $3,958. The short-term reaction is bullish, but the H4 structure is not fully reversed yet. Price is now moving between a lower buy liquidity zone and a higher medium-term sell OB zone, so chasing the middle range is not ideal.
From an SMC perspective, gold created a CHoCH near the lower area and started to push upward. This shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower demand zone. However, above the current price, there are still major liquidity and supply areas that may attract selling pressure again.
The key buy zone is $4,013–$4,027. If gold pulls back into this zone and buyers defend it with clear bullish confirmation, price may continue toward $4,110–$4,125, then $4,175–$4,195. The main sell reaction zone is $4,175–$4,195, where the medium-term OB is located. If price reaches this area and fails to break higher, sellers may return.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the $4,013–$4,027 buy liquidity zone and confirms bullish MSS / CHOCH on lower timeframe.
Entry: $4,013–$4,027
SL: below $3,985
TP1: $4,088
TP2: $4,110–$4,125
TP3: $4,175–$4,195
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks above the liquidity zone around $4,110–$4,125 and retests it as support, bullish continuation remains valid.
Entry: $4,110–$4,125 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,075
TP1: $4,150
TP2: $4,175–$4,195
TP3: $4,222
Sell setup
Condition:
Gold reaches the medium-term OB sell zone around $4,175–$4,195 and shows bearish rejection with MSS / CHOCH confirmation.
Entry: $4,175–$4,195
SL: above $4,222
TP1: $4,125
TP2: $4,088
TP3: $4,027
Key levels
Current price area: $4,088
Buy liquidity zone: $4,013–$4,027
Low area: $3,958
Liquidity zone: $4,110–$4,125
FVG area: $4,130–$4,160
Medium-term OB sell zone: $4,175–$4,195
Buy-side liquidity: $4,222
Month high: $4,383
Bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,125
Bearish reaction confirmation: rejection from $4,175–$4,195
Bullish invalidation: clean H4 close below $3,985
My current view is that gold is in a recovery phase after taking lower liquidity, but the safest Prime Gold plan is still to wait for price to reach major liquidity zones. I prefer buying only around the $4,013–$4,027 liquidity zone with confirmation, and watching for sell reaction if price reaches the $4,175–$4,195 OB zone.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
XAUUSD|Descending Triangle Signals Potential Continuation LowerGold remains under bearish pressure after a strong impulsive decline, with price now consolidating inside a descending triangle on the 30-minute timeframe. The pattern is characterized by a series of lower highs against a flat support base near the 3,960 area, indicating that sellers continue to absorb buying interest.
Multiple retests of support suggest weakening demand, while the descending trendline continues to cap recovery attempts. As long as price remains below the trendline and the nearby supply zone around 4,000–4,020, the broader short-term bias remains bearish.
A confirmed breakdown below triangle support could trigger fresh selling momentum, exposing the 3,900 level as the next key downside objective. If bearish momentum accelerates, further downside expansion may follow toward lower support levels. Short 
Short 
Short 
Gold Recovery Faces Strong Resistance Below $4,100Gold has bounced from below the $4,000 level, but the broader trend still favours sellers. The current move looks more like a relief rally, with the $4,080–4,100 area likely to become the next major resistance.
The macro backdrop remains supportive for the US Dollar, and unless gold breaks above resistance with strong momentum, rallies may continue to attract fresh selling.
Trade Setup:
Sell Zone: $4,080 – $4,100
Stop Loss: $4,140
Take Profit 1: $3,980
Take Profit 2: $3,940 Short 
Bitcoin chart analysis JUNE 25Hello
It's a Bitcoin Guide.
My analysis is optimized for TradingView.
If you press the Replay button, you can check real-time movements.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
As you can see from the recent movements, the chart is moving very erratically and chaotically.
Therefore, until the end of this week, I will proceed only after confirming the exact points regarding:
1. whether it will rise immediately, and
2. whether it will hit the final support line.
A few things need to be verified.
I consider a rebound meaningful only if it breaks through the orange resistance line at the very least; otherwise, I will unconditionally wait at the bottom.
After much consideration, I have also implemented a very simple strategy.
*Based on the movement path of the red finger
Long Position Strategy
1) $58,032.3 Long Position Entry Zone / Stop Loss if broken below the light blue support line
2) $60,769.9 Long Position 1st Target ->
Target prices after tomorrow: $62,802.7, Top, Good in that order
- Since the MACD Dead Cross on the daily chart needs to be completed,
the rebound should not be strong today; this is a strategy to rise after a moderate rebound.
You may also utilize the middle wave of the pink finger.
The bottom zone is open to 56.8K at the very bottom due to the lower wick,
and if the rebound fails today, a continuous downtrend may follow starting tomorrow.
*This is an explanation of points 1 and 2 indicated above.
You just need to look for the rebound after the touch.
(Long Position Entry Zone)
- Zone 1: If the rebound is successful without breaking the purple parallel line support, it becomes a vertical upward zone.
- Zone 2: If the rebound is successful without breaking the green support line, it becomes a strong upward zone.
The target price above remains the same.
I judge a genuine rebound only when it breaks through the orange resistance line at a minimum,
and I determine that it is not a sideways market or a deceptive move.
Please use my analysis post merely as a reference and for practical application.
I hope you operate safely by adhering to trading principles and strictly using stop-loss orders.
Thank you. Long 
Long 
Short 
Gold Demand Bounce Is LiveGold Demand Bounce Is Live: The Trade Is a Test of the Daily Supply, But the Previous Low Is the First Wall
The sweep paid. Gold printed its green candle off the weekly demand zone, and for the first time in this entire correction a timeframe has flipped bullish. The bounce flagged yesterday is now in motion, and the obvious target sits overhead at the daily supply. But one green candle is not conviction, and there is a wall standing in the way before any of that matters. Here is the read, leaning long but with eyes open.
THE FIRST CRACK IN THE BEAR
Yesterday's candle did the job. Price swept the lows into the 4,059 to 3,884 weekly demand, reacted, and closed green, the same liquidity grab and response that launched the move two weeks ago. The structure panel tells you it registered: the multi timeframe read has shifted from Full Bear to Bear lean, and the 1H has turned bullish. That is the first timeframe to break ranks with the downtrend, and it is exactly how a bottoming process starts, from the bottom up, one timeframe at a time.
So the demand zone is doing what a demand zone is supposed to do. Buyers showed up where they were supposed to. The setup is no longer a setup, it is a trade in progress.
WHY THIS IS NOT CONFIRMATION YET
Now the honest half, because this is early and it deserves respect. The daily candle is not convincing. Today is red, the bounce is hesitating, and price is running straight into resistance at the previous low near 4,060 to 4,097, the first supply overhead. One bullish timeframe against four still bearish, the 15m, 4H, 1D and 1W, is a foothold, not a victory. A green candle off demand can just as easily become a lower high if the first wall holds.
That first wall is the tell. The 4,060 to 4,097 band is the previous lower low turned resistance, and it is where price is stalling right now. Until the bounce reclaims and holds above it, this is buyers testing the door, not breaking through it. Watch that level for the first real proof the move has legs.
THE LINE THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING
Keep the big picture honest. This is still a counter trend bounce until the daily structure flips, and that takes one specific thing: a reclaim of 4,360, the top of the daily supply. Reclaim and hold above it and the daily sweep converts into a real reversal, the lower highs and lower lows finally break, and the conversation changes from bounce to trend. Short of that, every push higher is a rally inside a downtrend, tradable to the upside but not yet a turn. The target of the long is the same level that decides the trend, which is exactly why the reaction at the daily supply will tell you everything. Long 
GOLD BELOW 4000: OPPORTUNITY OR USD LIQUIDITY DRAIN?Gold remains trapped inside a strong bearish channel after weeks of persistent selling pressure. While price has started to stabilize and form a short-term consolidation, the broader market structure remains unchanged. The current pause appears to be a liquidity-building phase rather than evidence of a sustainable bottom.
Today's attention shifts toward the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, Final GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. These releases are expected to generate short-term volatility, but unless they significantly weaken expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, they are unlikely to reverse the dominant bearish trend.
From a macro perspective, the market continues to favor the U.S. dollar. Sticky inflation, resilient economic data, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy continue to support USD strength. Despite gold already experiencing a deep correction, capital has yet to rotate back into safe-haven assets, suggesting investors still prefer dollar-denominated positions over defensive commodities.
Technically, gold remains inside a well-defined descending channel. The recent consolidation reflects slowing downside momentum rather than genuine accumulation. The first recovery zone is located around the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci confluence. If sellers successfully defend this resistance cluster, the broader bearish structure is likely to remain intact.
Failure to reclaim this resistance would reinforce the view that the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce before another leg lower toward the liquidity zones below 395x.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold continues consolidating ahead of today's major U.S. economic releases.
A recovery into the 400x–404x Demand + Fibonacci resistance remains the preferred selling opportunity.
As long as price fails to reclaim this resistance cluster, the market is expected to continue rotating toward 395x, with further downside potentially extending into the 390x region.
Only a decisive break above the current resistance structure would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.
MARKET VIEW
The market is not waiting for good news to buy gold—it is waiting for a reason to leave the U.S. dollar.
Until inflation expectations soften and the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, capital flows are likely to remain concentrated in USD. That keeps the broader macro backdrop unfavorable for gold, making corrective rallies opportunities to trade with the prevailing trend rather than signals of a confirmed bottom.
Current Bias: Bearish continuation within the broader downtrend.
Key Focus: Demand + Fibonacci resistance around 400x–404x.
US Session Theme: Core PCE, GDP and Jobless Claims could increase volatility, but USD remains the dominant macro driver.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
XAUUSD 1H Analysis: Bearish Structure
Gold remains under bearish pressure after sweeping buy-side liquidity near 4,378 and forming a strong rejection. The subsequent impulsive decline broke market structure around 4,220, confirming a bearish shift in order flow.
Price retraced into the 4,200–4,217 Fibonacci resistance zone (50%–61.8%) but failed to reclaim higher levels, reinforcing seller dominance. This area now acts as a bearish breaker block and remains the key zone to watch for continuation shorts.
The current structure is printing lower highs and lower lows, while price trades beneath the broken ascending trendline. As long as the market remains below 4,217, the path of least resistance favors further downside.
Key Levels
Major Resistance: 4,217 (0.618 Fib)
Secondary Resistance: 4,275–4,278 (Supply / Liquidity Zone)
Current Support: 4,155
Bearish Targets: 4,113 → 4,068
Bearish Outlook
A rejection from the 4,200–4,217 zone could trigger another leg lower toward 4,113, where sell-side liquidity rests beneath recent lows. A break below that level may expose the next demand zone around 4,068.
Invalidation
The bearish scenario weakens if buyers achieve a sustained hourly close above 4,217, with stronger bullish confirmation above 4,278.
Bias: Bearish 📉
Structure: Bearish BOS + Lower High Formation
Targets: 4,113 → 4,068
Invalidation: Above 4,217 / 4,278 Short 
Short 
US GDP volatility — 4,040 FVG mitigation vs. 3,900 macro⚖️ Macro Backdrop: US GDP as the Ultimate Volume Catalyst
Gold markets enter a high-voltage consolidation phase hovering just under the 4,000 psychological barrier as global investors brace for the crucial U.S. GDP data release tonight. The persistent fundamental weight of elevated U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields and strong Dollar Index (DXY) traction continues to heavily cap bullion’s long-term recovery efforts. Institutional order flow is utilizing this pre-news quiet window to engineer strict liquidity traps. Tonight's macroeconomic release will serve as the volume trigger, but the primary smart money directive remains firmly locked into an aggressive premium distribution and markdown cycle.
📉 Technical Narrative: Imbalance Retest Within Aggressive Bearish Order Flow
The structural layout on the M30 chart showcases a textbook institutional distribution framework operating under a heavily dominant bearish trend:
1. Bearish Order Flow Control: XAUUSD maintains a clean structural markdown phase, verified by a definitive series of consecutive lower-timeframe Break of Structure (BOS) points down to the 3,994.630 floating zone.
2. The Premium FVG Ceiling (4,040 - 4,055 Area): Intraday price action is projected to deliver a quick pre-news corrective relief drive up into this unmitigated Fair Value Gap. This temporary bounce acts as a clean buy-side inducement designed to trap early retail breakout traders.
3. Liquidity Target Floor 1 (3,950 — 3,965 Area): Following the FVG premium mitigation, the pre-engineered black ziczac path maps a violent rejection down into this internal demand block to wash out weak long stops.
4. The Ultimate Destination Floor (3,890 — 3,905 Area): The ultimate magnet for this weekly cycle is the Major Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) Pool resting at the deep HTF discount demand zone below. Smart money requires a complete sweep of this floor to accumulate major long inventory.
🔄 IF-THEN Playbook (Execution Scenarios):
• IF price expands into the 4,040 Premium FVG Ceiling and prints a clear lower-timeframe structural failure (M1/M5 CHoCH Rejection) -> THEN trigger premium short positions targeting the 3,955 intermediate support and the 3,900 ultimate macro bottom.
• IF price invalidates this setup by printing a solid M30 candle close above the 4,060 level -> THEN the immediate bearish expansion path is paused, and we step aside to wait for the GDP data stabilization.
🎯 Trading Metrics Summary:
• Current Floating Price: 3,994.630
• Premium Re-entry Zone: 4,040.000 — 4,055.000 (Waiting for LTF CHoCH)
• Intermediate Take Profit: 3,955.000 Area
• Ultimate Macro Target Floor: 3,890.000 — 3,905.000 (Major SSL Pool)
• Structural Invalidation Point: Solid M30 close above 4,060.000
💡 Trader Question:
Are you attempting to scalp long this pre-news rally up to the 4,040 FVG ceiling, or are you sitting on your hands waiting to short the premium rejection post-GDP? Let me know your playbook in the comments below! Long 
Gold Pre-GDP & PCE Blueprint—Final markdown to $3,800Market Overview
• Macro Driver: The global financial market enters a state of extreme compression ahead of tonight's high-impact US macro data sequence, featuring the Q1 GDP Preliminary report and the critical Core PCE Price Index. With Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh maintaining a highly hawkish "higher-for-longer" baseline, any hot data print will act as a major catalyst to catapult the US Dollar Index (DXY) upward, severely suffocating non-yielding assets like Gold.
• Market Condition: Institutional order flow remains firmly net-bearish. Smart money is actively defending macro supply barriers and using localized internal relief bounces solely as liquidity-engineering traps to accumulate heavy premium short exposure.
Technical Context
• Structure: Mid-Term Bearish Expansion. The 2H timeframe demonstrates a textbook bearish markdown cycle, strictly governed by a dominant descending Trendline. Following consecutive structural breakdowns (BOS) and local Change of Character (CHoCH) shifts, price has successfully mitigated an internal Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $4,040 - $4,060 and is initiating the next impulsive leg down.
• Liquidity & Imbalance: The algorithm is currently drawing price magnetically down to sweep the major Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) pools resting at the $3,900 and $3,800 institutional demand targets. Retail buyers attempting to catch the falling knife are merely providing the necessary counter-liquidity for the next flush.
Key Zones
• Macro Trendline Resistance / FVG Floor: 4,040.000 - 4,060.000
• Immediate Pivot Price Level: 3,981.555
• Intermediate Support Target: 3,900.000 (Box Array)
• Ultimate Liquidity Pool: 3,800.000 (Major Demand Box)
Trading Plan (IF–THEN)
• IF price delivers a choppy intraday correction to test the current local pivot or the FVG zone at 4,040 before the high-impact news AND validates lower-timeframe bearish displacement (M15 order block rejection) -> THEN execute Short positions targeting the first support box at 3,900, with an extended expansion target down to the macro floor at 3,800.
• IF price completely invalidates the descending trendline by securing a strong, decisive 2H candle close above 4,060 -> THEN the immediate bearish continuation narrative is temporarily paused, shifting the local bias into a deeper corrective distribution phase.
MMFLOW View
• Bias: Corrective Bearish Bias. Trading against this heavy institutional markdown momentum is an uncalculated risk. Our mathematical edge heavily favors capitalizing on premium pullbacks or breakdown confirmations, targeting the massive unmitigated $3,800 liquidity pool as the ultimate target.
Are you shorting the pre-news consolidation toward $3,900, or do you think a dovish PCE surprise will trigger a massive short-squeeze above the trendline?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below! Like, Follow, and check out my Profile to lock into our real-time community tracking updates. XAUUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Fibonacci Confluence Target in Focus
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts remain weak below EMA resistance.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. This confirms that the short-term trend remains bearish, with the EMA structure acting as dynamic resistance above price.
Price is currently around 3,983 after a strong bearish continuation move. The market has already broken below the previous support area and is now moving toward the lower Fibonacci liquidity zones.
The key value sell zone is around 4,054 - 4,068. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level, previous structure, and EMA resistance. If gold pulls back into this zone and fails to break higher, sellers may continue to defend the trend.
Below current price, the first important target is around 3,936 - 3,934, which aligns with the Fibonacci 1.618 area. If bearish momentum continues, the deeper target is the Fibonacci confluence zone around 3,810 - 3,804.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 3,983
Main sell value zone: 4,054 - 4,068
EMA resistance area: 4,054 - 4,099
Short-term invalidation: above 4,099
First Fibonacci target: 3,936 - 3,934
Deeper bearish target: 3,917
Fibonacci confluence target zone: 3,810 - 3,804
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,054 - 4,068
Stop Loss: 4,099
Take Profit 1: 3,936
Take Profit 2: 3,917
Take Profit 3: 3,810 - 3,804
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to pull back into the 4,054 - 4,068 Fibonacci and EMA value zone. This area is important because it aligns with the bearish EMA structure and the previous reaction zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA range.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks back below 3,983, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 3,936 - 3,934, followed by 3,917 and the Fibonacci confluence target zone around 3,810 - 3,804.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,054 - 4,068.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell directly at the low without a pullback.
A break below 3,936 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,099, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci and EMA value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 3,936, 3,917, and the Fibonacci confluence target around 3,810 - 3,804.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner retest of the EMA value zone first?
Short 
GOLD BELOW $4000: BIGGEST TRAP OF THE YEAR IN PROGRESS?🚨 GOLD BELOW $4000 — WHAT’S NEXT? FULL PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS 🚨
We have been witnessing very strong selling pressure in gold over the past several weeks. There is no doubt that panic selling has now started in the market. Many traders who were planning to go long on gold, and even those involved in physical gold investments, are now under stress because gold has corrected nearly 29% this year, which is a massive move.
But the most important question is: Why is gold selling off so aggressively? How long can this selling continue? And when can we start looking for long opportunities again?
Let's build a detailed probabilistic analysis to get a clearer picture.
At the beginning of this year, I mentioned that gold could enter a long consolidation phase, and that is exactly what we are seeing now. Along with consolidation, we are also witnessing a deep correction, which could actually be beneficial for the market in the long run.
For the past few years, gold had been in a strong uptrend. During that period, most traders were looking for selling opportunities while the market continued moving higher. This year, however, the situation completely reversed. Most traders became interested in buying every dip and holding gold for the long term.
As a result, the market repeatedly gave buyers hope and then liquidated them. In my opinion, there is no doubt that gold will eventually move higher in the future. However, based on the way gold has behaved this year, I do not believe a major bull run will begin anytime soon.
I think a meaningful upside move will only start once the hype around buying gold disappears and most traders lose interest. That future rally would likely represent a fresh beginning for gold. Right now, the market is focused on removing excess liquidity, and as a psychological trader, I believe the reasons behind this decline are largely psychological, as explained above.
This week, I was expecting some bullish pressure in gold, mainly because additional buyers entering the market would create more liquidity for the next leg lower. There was no doubt that $4000 was a very important level.
My expectation was that the market would allow buyers to enter above $4000, encouraging traders to place their stop losses below that level. Then, after sufficient liquidity had been created, we would see a breakdown below $4000 and a continuation lower.
That was my personal plan and observation.
If you study gold's behavior this year, you will notice a recurring pattern. After the major decline in January, the daily low formed around $4410. Later, on March 23, the market formed a low around $4100, after which buyers briefly stepped in and created liquidity. More recently, we saw a low around $4024.
Based on this repetitive behavior and market psychology, I expected the market to pause above $4024, attract additional buyers, and then form the next major low. It was a reasonable scenario. I never suggested that gold would rally directly from that zone because the market was already trading very close to the critical $4000 level, where many traders likely had stop losses positioned.
Eventually, those stops needed to be hunted.
However, selling pressure remained extremely strong, which resulted in continuous downside momentum, and gold is now trading below $4000.
So what is my next trading plan?
Earlier this week, I highlighted two key support levels: $4134 and $4084. As long as gold remained above those levels, I maintained a bullish bias. However, both of those important support zones have now been broken.
The plan is now very simple:
As long as gold fails to produce a daily close above $4084, I will not adopt a fully bullish bias. Instead, my focus will remain on identifying and trapping weak buyers.
If selling pressure continues, then the following downside targets become extremely important:
📉 $3945
📉 $3907
📉 $3876
📉 $3813
📉 $3768
These are the major levels on my radar.
If gold fails to reclaim and close above $4084, I believe these targets have a high probability of being reached.
At the same time, if you backtest the chart, you will notice that the $3876–$3907 area has historically shown buying pressure. Keeping that in mind, we could see a temporary buying move emerge from this zone.
However, I view that potential rally as another liquidity-generation move designed to attract buyers. A bounce is certainly possible because the market has been heavily bearish for several weeks, and traders naturally become optimistic after a prolonged decline.
Even then, my plan remains unchanged:
If gold cannot achieve a daily close above $4084, I will continue expecting selling pressure to dominate.
Today, gold is trading below $4000, which is a very important psychological level. Many traders are buying simply because they expect a breakout and daily close back above $4000.
But based on current chart behavior, I don't think the market will make things easy for buyers. Instead, I believe gold may continue drifting lower, trapping traders who are emotionally fighting the trend.
Personally, today is a no-trading day for me.
I prefer observing the market rather than taking positions because selling aggressively below such a major level carries its own risks. Around these key zones, market makers often focus on heavy liquidation and stop hunts, which can create extremely volatile conditions.
I hope this simple probabilistic market analysis helped you understand the current situation and gave you a logical perspective on what might happen next.
Good luck, trade safely, and have a profitable day.
What is your trading plan from here?
Let me know in the comments. 👇📊🔥
