GOLD WEEKLY PLAN | 48XX–49XX MAY SET GOLD'S TRENDLast week clearly reflected a “recovery under uncertainty” phase for gold. Despite continuous support from economic news and expectations of a softer FED stance, gold still failed to build a strong enough bullish structure to shift the long-term macro view. Most of the recent upside came from short-term reaction flows driven by news rather than a strong return of long-term safe-haven capital as seen in previous phases.
My broader macro perspective remains unchanged: the market is gradually entering a phase of weakening liquidity and fading speculative momentum. As investors become more accustomed to recession headlines and macro fears, the “fear-buy” effect supporting gold also starts to weaken. This suggests that while gold may continue recovering in the short term, the larger structure still favors distribution and potential moves back toward lower price zones.
This week, the main focus will be on US CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales data. These releases could heavily influence expectations regarding future FED policy. If inflation remains elevated or retail sales data surprises positively, the USD could regain strength and pressure gold after the recent recovery rally. On the other hand, weaker economic data may continue supporting gold in the short term as markets price in a softer FED outlook.
From a technical structure perspective, gold is still moving within a short-term recovery channel after forming a CHoCH from the lower support zone. Price continues to respect the support + Fibonacci regions below while gradually approaching the major liquidity zone around 48xx–49xx. This remains the key area of the entire structure, where demand, Fibonacci levels, and the larger descending trendline converge.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues maintaining its short-term recovery structure, gradually moving toward the 48xx–49xx zone. If economic data weakens further and USD pressure continues fading, gold could perform additional liquidity sweeps into the upper demand zones before the market decides the next major directional move.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If CPI/PPI data comes in stronger than expected or markets return to pricing a “higher for longer” FED narrative, gold could face strong rejection around the 48xx–49xx area and rotate back toward lower support + Fibonacci zones. This remains the preferred observation area for longer-term sell opportunities based on the current macro perspective.
Overall, gold remains inside a technical recovery phase, but the 48xx–49xx region will likely determine whether the market can sustain a broader recovery or return to the longer-term bearish pressure driven by the larger macroeconomic slowdown narrative.
LucasGrayTrading 
Short
Breakdown confirmed - Is 50XX still target for gold?This week continues to reflect a delayed “risk-off” environment across the market. Even though recession concerns remain in the background and several U.S. economic data releases are starting to show signs of slowing momentum, gold still fails to return to the strong safe-haven rally seen during previous panic phases. Instead, the market is reacting more to short-term liquidity movements and macro data repricing rather than aggressive institutional inflows into defensive assets.
After the strong rejection from the 476x demand area earlier this week, gold has now officially broken down the short-term recovery structure and continues trading inside a bearish H4 channel. One important signal is that multiple upper demand zones continue failing to hold price, suggesting that buying pressure is gradually weakening as markets begin repricing expectations for the FED to maintain higher rates for longer.
From a macro perspective, recession risks have not disappeared, but the market narrative is currently shifting toward the “higher for longer” interest-rate environment. This keeps the USD relatively strong and creates sustained pressure on gold in the short term. Recent CPI and PPI data were not weak enough to trigger expectations of a strong FED pivot, causing multiple failed recovery attempts in gold.
Technically, gold has now broken below the medium-term ascending trendline and continues moving under the H4 descending resistance structure. After the aggressive selloff through the 0.618 fibo area, price is now approaching a major support + FVG liquidity zone around the lower 45xx region. This area represents a key liquidity cluster from the previous bullish leg and may trigger a short-term technical rebound.
MAIN SCENARIO:
The priority remains selling with the dominant bearish trend. If gold produces a technical rebound back toward upper demand + fibo + trendline resistance zones around 460x–466x, these areas remain preferred sell opportunities following the primary structure. If bearish momentum continues, gold may extend further toward the deeper support + FVG zone in the lower 45xx area.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If the current support + FVG zone generates strong buying reactions and price successfully reclaims the short-term descending trendline, gold may enter a temporary recovery phase to rebalance upper inefficiencies. However, at this stage, any rebound is still considered corrective within the broader bearish structure.
Overall, gold is gradually transitioning from recovery into distribution under the broader macro view. Recession pressure still exists, but the market remains insufficiently weak to trigger a major safe-haven rotation back into gold. For now, rallies continue to favor sell opportunities within the bearish structure rather than confirming a long-term bullish reversal.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Market Analysis Summary: XAUUSD (Gold Spot)1. Structural Context & Trend Shift
Timeframe Focus: 2-Hour (2H) chart.
Recent Price Action: Gold experienced a strong bullish rally from May 5 to May 12, creating a well-defined consolidation block (gray shaded area).
2. Key Technical Levels
Current Price: $4,567.52 (-1.82%).
Immediate Support: The "Reversal Area" is identified between $4,535.00 and $4,550.00.
Critical Liquidity Level: The "Volume Burst" line marks major historical buying liquidity near $4,500.00.
Key Resistance: Previous structural breakdown point at $4,635.00.
3. Trading Scenario Breakdown
Condition: Price must find structural stability and print a bullish confirmation pattern (e.g., engulfing candle, pin bar) inside the designated Reversal Area ($4,535 – $4,550).
Target: A technical bounce targeting the $4,635 resistance zone.Invalidation: A clean 2H candle close below $4,530 invalidates the immediate long bias.
Bearish Scenario (Trend Continuation)
Target: Extension lower to sweep the critical Volume Burst liquidity level near $4,500.
Long 
Bulls vs Bears — 4670 and 4710 determine gold's direction.After the sharp decline triggered by previous CPI and PPI data, gold is now entering a clear compression phase ahead of tonight’s Retail Sales release. The market is slowing down and waiting for confirmation on whether USD strength can continue after the recent series of economic data.
The key point here is that although the short-term structure still remains inside a bearish channel on H4, gold has not broken down below the rising trendline support yet. This suggests sellers still control the broader structure, but buyers are attempting to defend the last recovery zone to avoid a deeper breakdown toward lower support areas.
From a macro perspective, the market remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data. If Retail Sales stay strong, it would reinforce expectations that the FED may keep higher rates for longer, supporting USD further. In that scenario, gold could break below the lower trendline support, confirming bearish continuation toward the 462x–460x support + fibo areas.
On the other hand, if retail data weakens, gold may see another liquidity sweep back toward the upper 47xx demand zones before the market decides on the next larger directional move. However, at this stage, the current recovery is still viewed as a technical rebound inside a broader bearish structure rather than a sustainable bullish trend.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Gold continues compressing ahead of Retail Sales data. If USD remains supported by strong economic numbers, gold may break below the rising trendline and extend the decline toward lower support + fibo zones.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
If economic data weakens and USD loses momentum, gold could rebound short term toward the 47xx demand area before the market reacts to the next major directional setup.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Gold Breaks Below Key SupportXAUUSD is weakening significantly after failing to hold above the 4,680 – 4,670 USD support zone. On the H4 chart, price has already broken below both EMA34 and EMA89, while strong bearish momentum pushed gold down near 4,610 USD.
If sellers continue controlling the market below the broken support, gold could extend losses toward 4,550 USD and potentially 4,500 USD in the short term.
The main bearish catalyst remains strong US inflation data. CPI rose to 3.8%, while PPI posted its largest increase since 2022 due to higher energy prices linked to Iran tensions.
This has almost eliminated expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, supporting the US dollar and Treasury yields — both negative factors for gold.
Despite current weakness, analysts like Fawad Razaqzada still believe long-term inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty remain supportive for gold as a safe-haven asset. Short 
Long
M30 Triangle Compression: Liquidity Trap or Market Drop?Macro Snapshot: The "Sticky Inflation" Pressure Gold is hovering near the 4,700 handle as the market braces for today’s Initial Jobless Claims data (May 14, 2026). While Central Bank demand remains a solid floor, the Fed’s "higher for longer" stance—fueled by energy-driven inflation—continues to cap upside potential. Remember: News is just the catalyst; the real story is how price reacts at liquidity zones.
Technical View: Compression Triangle (M30) XAUUSD is currently coiled within a very tight Compression Triangle structure:
Key Resistance: 4,709.297 – Significant liquidity is resting right above this peak.
Target Supports: 4,675.553 (S1) and the major demand zone at 4,632.463 (S2).
The Narrative: The current pullback is testing the upper supply line to gauge selling pressure. A failure to break out here would signal a high-probability Expansion move to the downside.
IF–THEN Scenarios: * Primary Path: IF price rejects the 4,709 zone and breaks the triangle floor → THEN we look for a direct expansion toward the 4,632 demand zone.
Alternative Path: IF we see a decisive candle close above 4,710 with high volume → The bearish structure is invalidated (CHoCH), and we must reassess our bias.
Execution Plan: * Entry: Waiting for LTF (M5/M15) reversal confirmation within the 4,703 - 4,709 area.
Target: 4,632.
Invalidation: Solid close above 4,712.
What’s your take? Will the Jobless Claims report trigger a legitimate breakout, or are we looking at a classic Liquidity Sweep before the dump? Drop your bias in the comments! Short 
DON’T TRADE GOLD RIGHT NOW UNLESS YOU KNOW THISSo, the situation in gold has become very interesting right now because both sides — buyers and sellers — are sitting with strong expectations that they will win.
If we observe the market carefully, gold has been trading in a tight range for the last 2 days, and that too in a very choppy manner. Because of this, a lot of confusion has been created in the market. Sellers from the top are expecting a drop, while buyers from the bottom are expecting a move upward. This kind of behavior usually means the market is building liquidity through consolidation.
Keeping this in mind, there is a high probability that we may see a big trap move in gold within the next few hours. So the key question is — how can we avoid this trap and how can we take advantage of it to book strong profits? Let’s understand.
If you remember the period between 23rd–27th April, the market showed a similar range-bound structure. After that consolidation phase, we saw a downside move. Because of this, many traders are now expecting the same kind of drop again. But one thing you need to understand is — the market doesn’t repeat the same pattern in the exact same way. Since gold already dropped from this price area last month, expecting the same outcome again is not the right approach.
Now talking about today — my overall plan is to look for buying opportunities on every pullback.
Personally, I am expecting a breakout of the 4734 level by the NYC session. As I’ve already mentioned before, 4734 is a very important level. As long as gold stays below it, the fight between buyers and sellers will continue.
But once the market gradually reaches and breaks above 4734, we can expect a clean upside move, which can push price towards:
* 4758
* 4776
* 4789
* and if momentum is strong, even 4800+
That’s the move I’m personally waiting for.
Also, one more important point — my view is that the market is likely to stay above 4660 throughout the day, and I will continue to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks.
Since gold is behaving in a very choppy manner right now, it’s better to either:
* Prefer scalping, or
* Wait for the 4734 breakout and then enter buys to lock in profits.
Important Note: If you don’t know how to scalp properly, it’s better to wait for the 4734 level. After a proper confirmation, you can enter a buy and focus on locking profits. Because the market is highly choppy, and after heavy consolidation, breakouts can sometimes turn into traps. That’s why your main focus should be on profit booking rather than holding trades for too long.
Long 
XAUUSD Stuck Between Inflation and Fed PolicyGold is currently consolidating around 4,680 – 4,700 USD after breaking out of its previous downtrend channel. Price keeps reacting near EMA34 and EMA89, showing temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
The main resistance remains 4,750 – 4,800 USD. Although gold recovered strongly from 4,500 USD, buyers still have not managed to break this zone clearly, and profit-taking continues to appear quickly near the top.
The biggest pressure comes from stronger US inflation data. April CPI rose to 3.8%, while PPI also increased sharply due to higher energy and trade costs linked to Iran tensions. This has reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts and kept both US yields and the dollar elevated.
Oil staying above 100 USD per barrel adds more inflation risk, while India’s higher import duties on gold and silver may weaken physical demand.
Still, the long-term outlook remains supported by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and bullish forecasts from major institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
Technically, the breakout from the late-April downtrend channel and the improving EMA34 structure suggest selling pressure is fading. For now, XAUUSD may continue moving sideways until inflation cools or the Fed becomes more dovish. Long 
How to Trade GOLD During Geopolitical Crisis Step-by-StepStep-by-Step Education for Beginners and Active Traders
Gold is one of the most watched assets during geopolitical tension. When fear rises in global markets, traders often look at gold because it is seen as a “safe-haven” asset. But this does not mean gold always goes straight up during a crisis. Gold can move sharply in both directions because news, the U.S. dollar, bond yields, liquidity, and market positioning all play a role.
This article explains how to approach gold trading during geopolitical events in a simple, practical, and educational way.
1. Why Gold Moves During Geopolitical Crisis
Gold usually reacts to uncertainty. When traders are worried about war, sanctions, supply shocks, banking stress, or political instability, they may move money into safer assets.
Gold often rises when:
Fear increases in global markets
Investors reduce exposure to risky assets
The U.S. dollar weakens
Real yields fall
Central banks buy gold
Inflation fears increase
Gold may fall even during a crisis when:
The U.S. dollar becomes very strong
Bond yields rise sharply
Traders take profit after a big rally
Markets sell everything to raise cash
The crisis becomes “priced in”
Important lesson: Do not buy gold only because there is bad news. Trade the chart, not emotion.
2. Key Things to Watch Before Trading Gold
Before entering any gold trade, check these major drivers:
U.S. Dollar Index
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars. If the dollar rises strongly, gold may struggle. If the dollar weakens, gold often gets support.
U.S. Treasury Yields
Higher yields can pressure gold because gold does not pay interest. Falling yields usually support gold.
Market Sentiment
If stock markets are falling and fear is rising, gold may attract safe-haven demand.
News Timing
Gold can spike quickly during breaking news. Entering late after a big candle can be risky.
Technical Levels
Support, resistance, trendlines, liquidity zones, and previous highs/lows matter a lot during crisis trading.
3. Step-by-Step Gold Trading Plan During Crisis
Step 1: Identify the Market Structure
Start with the higher timeframe, such as the daily or 4-hour chart.
Ask yourself:
Is gold making higher highs and higher lows?
Is price above key moving averages?
Is price breaking major resistance?
Is gold stuck in a range?
If gold is in an uptrend, buying pullbacks is usually safer than chasing candles.
If gold is ranging, trade from support to resistance.
If gold is breaking down, avoid emotional buying.
Step 2: Mark Key Support and Resistance
Before taking a trade, mark important levels:
Previous daily high
Previous daily low
Weekly high and low
Major swing highs
Major swing lows
Psychological levels like 2000, 2050, 2100, 2200
During geopolitical events, price often reacts strongly at these levels.
Simple rule:
Buy near support only if price shows rejection
Sell near resistance only if price shows weakness
Trade breakouts only after confirmation
Step 3: Wait for Confirmation
Many traders lose money because they enter on the first news spike. Gold can move fast, trap traders, and reverse quickly.
Good confirmation signs include:
Strong candle close above resistance
Retest of breakout level
Bullish rejection wick near support
Higher low formation
Volume increase during breakout
RSI recovering from support zone
Avoid entering only because the candle is already big. A big candle may mean you are late.
Step 4: Choose Your Trading Setup
Here are three simple setups for gold during crisis periods.
Setup 1: Breakout and Retest
This is useful when gold breaks above a major resistance level.
How it works:
Price breaks resistance with a strong candle.
Wait for price to come back and retest the broken level.
If the level holds as support, look for a buy entry.
Place stop loss below the retest low.
Target the next resistance zone.
This setup helps avoid chasing the first spike.
Setup 2: Pullback in Uptrend
This is useful when gold is already trending higher.
How it works:
Identify higher highs and higher lows.
Wait for price to pull back to support, trendline, or moving average.
Look for rejection or bullish candle pattern.
Enter after confirmation.
Stop loss goes below the swing low.
This is often safer than buying at the top of a panic candle.
Setup 3: Rejection From Resistance
Gold does not rise forever. During crisis periods, price can overextend and then correct.
How it works:
Mark a strong resistance zone.
Wait for price to reach the level.
Look for rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, or failed breakout.
Enter only after confirmation.
Stop loss goes above the rejection high.
This setup is for short-term traders only. Avoid shorting strong trends without clear confirmation.
4. Risk Management Is More Important During Crisis
Gold becomes very volatile during geopolitical events. A normal stop loss may get hit quickly if it is too tight.
Follow these rules:
Use smaller position size
Avoid over-leverage
Do not risk more than you can afford to lose
Always use a stop loss
Avoid trading during random breaking news
Do not enter after three or four large candles in the same direction
Take partial profit near important levels
A good trade is not only about direction. It is about entry, stop loss, target, and position size.
5. Example Trading Plan
Here is a simple gold trading plan:
Trend: Bullish on 4H chart
Key support : Previous breakout level
Entry : Buy after retest and bullish rejection candle
Stop loss : Below retest low
Target 1 : Previous high
Target 2 : Next resistance zone
Risk: 1% of account
Invalidation : Price closes below support
This kind of plan keeps you disciplined. Without a plan, crisis trading becomes emotional.
6. Common Mistakes Traders Make
Mistake 1: Buying Every Bad News Headline
Not every crisis headline creates a long-term gold rally. Sometimes price already moved before the news becomes public.
Mistake 2: Chasing Big Candles
If gold already moved far, wait for a pullback or retest.
Mistake 3: Ignoring the Dollar
A strong U.S. dollar can limit gold upside.
Mistake 4: Using High Leverage
Gold volatility can wipe out over-leveraged accounts quickly.
Mistake 5: No Stop Loss
During crisis events, gold can reverse hundreds of points very fast.
7. Best Timeframes for Gold Trading
For beginners:
Daily chart for main trend
4H chart for structure
1H chart for entry confirmation
For intraday traders:
4H for bias
1H for setup
15M for entry
Avoid using only 1-minute or 5-minute charts during high-impact news unless you are very experienced.
8. Simple Checklist Before Entering Gold Trade
Before entering, ask:
Is gold trending or ranging?
Where is the nearest support?
Where is the nearest resistance?
Is the dollar strong or weak?
Am I entering late after a big move?
Do I have confirmation?
Where is my stop loss?
Is my risk controlled?
Does the trade have at least 1:2 risk-reward?
If the answer is not clear, skip the trade. No trade is also a position.
9. TradingView Educational Picture Idea
For your TradingView chart image, you can mark:
Title on chart:
“Gold During Geopolitical Crisis: Wait for Breakout and Retest”
Add these labels:
Major resistance
Breakout candle
Retest zone
Buy confirmation
Stop loss below support
Target 1 at previous high
Target 2 at next resistance
Avoid chasing panic candles
Use arrows to show:
Price breaks resistance
Price retests the level
Buyers defend support
Price continues upward
This makes the idea simple and visual for followers.
Final Thoughts
Gold can offer great opportunities during geopolitical crises, but it is also risky because volatility becomes extreme. The goal is not to predict every headline. The goal is to prepare a clear plan, wait for confirmation, manage risk, and trade only when the chart gives a clean setup.
Trade gold with patience. Let the market come to your level. Do not chase fear.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own analysis and use proper risk management.
Thank you for reading. I hope this educational article helps you understand how to trade gold during geopolitical crisis with more patience, discipline, and proper risk management.
For more trading education, chart learning, and market ideas, follow my channel:
Thank you for reading. I hope this educational article helps you understand how to trade gold during geopolitical crisis with more patience, discipline, and proper risk management.
For more trading education, chart learning, and market ideas, follow my channel:
@Trade-Technique Education 
Short 
CPI may determine gold's rise to 48XX or sell-off.The market is entering tonight’s CPI session in an extremely sensitive state after gold’s strong recovery phase throughout last week. What stands out now is that although gold continues to maintain its short-term bullish recovery structure, momentum is clearly beginning to slow as price repeatedly reacts around the 47xx demand zones. This suggests that large institutional flows have not fully returned into “fear buy” mode like previous crisis phases, while most recent upside movement still appears driven by short-term positioning reacting to economic data and shifting FED expectations.
From a technical perspective, gold is still moving within a short-term bullish trendline structure after forming both CHoCH and BOS from the lower base. However, the current zone is becoming increasingly critical as price repeatedly struggles around upper demand. This is no longer an ideal area for aggressive FOMO buying, but rather a zone to wait for post-CPI confirmation and clearer market direction.
If CPI comes in weaker than expected or markets continue pricing a softer FED stance, USD could weaken in the short term and support gold toward the upper demand zones around 476x–48xx. This remains a major liquidity area where demand, fibo levels, and previous distribution zones converge — making it one of the most important reaction zones for sellers.
On the other hand, if CPI prints hotter than expected or markets shift back toward expectations of higher rates for longer, gold could face a strong rejection from current demand levels and break back below the short-term bullish structure. In that scenario, the 468x–466x support + fibo regions become the first key downside zones to monitor for continuation sell pressure.
MAIN SCENARIO:
Weak CPI data pressures USD lower, allowing gold to maintain the recovery structure, breakout above the 476x demand zone, and extend the recovery toward higher 48xx liquidity areas before larger distribution pressure potentially returns.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO:
Strong CPI data strengthens USD, causing gold to reject from current demand, break the H4 bullish trendline, and rotate back toward the 468x–466x support + fibo zones in line with the medium-term bearish bias maintained throughout recent plans.
Overall, tonight’s CPI release could become the defining catalyst for the entire current recovery structure in gold. The market is approaching a highly sensitive price zone where post-news reaction may matter even more than the data itself.
LucasGrayTrading Short 
Fed Uncertainty Keeps Gold in Tight ConsolidationGold prices are moving cautiously after the aggressive rally recorded earlier this month. The market is now trading near the 4,700 USD.
Technically, the broader short-term uptrend remains intact despite recent selling pressure. The 4,680 – 4,650 USD demand area continues to absorb downside momentum effectively. Holding above this zone could open the door for another push toward 4,760 USD, followed by a possible extension toward 4,800 USD if bullish momentum accelerates.
This environment closely mirrors the post Russia–Ukraine shock in 2022, when gold rallied aggressively at first before losing momentum as higher energy costs boosted yields and strengthened the dollar. Safe-haven demand remains present, but monetary policy expectations are currently dominating price action.
From a medium-term perspective, the bullish case for gold is still supported by central bank accumulation, improving ETF inflows, and the possibility of monetary easing later in 2026. Long 
GOLD May 13 | CPI Hot. Deal Dead. Major resistance 4760Gold tested the POI zone at 4760-4800 yesterday, got rejected again, and is now drifting back toward the trigger level at 4631. April CPI came in at 3.8% year on year, the highest since May 2023 and above forecasts of 3.7%. Core also beat expectations at 2.8%. That is the single most important number for gold right now, and it came in hot.
What happened in the last 24 hours:
Trump rejected Iran's response to the US peace proposal, calling it "totally unacceptable." Tehran had demanded compensation for war damages, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezing funds, and ending the US Navy blockade, while omitting any mention of nuclear stockpile delivery Trump's core demand.
Trump then said the ceasefire is on "massive life support" and is meeting his national security team to consider restarting military operations. Israeli PM Netanyahu added fuel by declaring Iran's uranium enrichment facilities must be destroyed.
So the deal that drove gold from 4,497 to 4,765 last week is effectively dead for now. The peace premium is being priced back out. And CPI confirming hot inflation removes the last argument for rate cuts in 2026.
Trump is also scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, covering Iran, Taiwan, AI, and nuclear weapons. This is a wildcard. If China agrees to pressure Iran toward a deal, the narrative flips fast.
The chart:
The picture has not changed but the balance of risk has shifted. Price circulated between 4,631 and 4,760 yesterday without conviction. The POI zone (4,760-4,800) rejected price cleanly again. The trigger level at 4,631 continues to act as the floor.
The pattern is intact. But hot CPI and a collapsed deal narrative are testing the patience of anyone long from the trigger.
this is noise.
Levels:
4,760-4,800 -- POI. Rejected multiple times now. THE major resistance area.
4,706 -- 0.236 Fib.
4,703 -- current price. Mid-range, no direction.
4,631 -- TRIGGER. The line that defines bull or bear. Holding for now.
4,590 -- 0.382 Fib.
4,530-50 -- major support area.
Today:
PPI data drops today (May 13). After CPI beat yesterday, a hot PPI would cement the "inflation is not coming down" narrative and add more pressure on gold. A cool PPI would provide slight relief. Global brokerages have scaled back expectations of two rate cuts in 2026, with forecasts now split between some easing and no cuts at all. The market is caught in a paradox: the same escalation that raises safe-haven demand for gold also raises energy prices and inflation, increasing rate hike probability. These two forces cancel each other out, leaving gold going nowhere
Hot CPI confirmed. Deal collapsed. POI ceiling intact. Trigger floor holding. The range continues. PPI today and Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow are the next catalysts. Short 
Retest trend - Still Bullish or a Trap?News snapshot Markets await Trump's inauguration policy announcements. Geopolitical tensions ease after Gaza ceasefire agreement, reducing immediate safe-haven demand. Fed rate cut expectations for 2025 remain at 2 times, with markets pricing in first cut potentially by June. Physical demand from China remains robust ahead of Lunar New Year.
📊 What I see on 2h
Price retesting the rising trendline after breaking above previous resistance. Structure still bullish – but we're at a decision point.
Key levels:
🟢 Support: 4,682 (trendline) 🔴 Resistance: 4,769 → Target 4,891
⚡️ IF–THEN
✅ IF holds 4,682 + reclaims upside → continuation toward 4,769 → 4,891
❌ IF loses 4,682 → fakeout → deeper correction
🧠 My bias
For me, this still looks like a healthy retest. But I'm not interested in guessing if it holds. I'll wait for price to show me – reject or break.
👇 Do you think trendline holds or fails? Long 
Long 
Long
WANT TO PROFIT FROM GOLD TODAY? DON’T TRADE BEFORE READING THISSo, the bullish pressure we were expecting at the start of the week was clearly seen yesterday. We got a very strong upside move, and the market showed solid buying momentum. This makes one thing very clear — retail traders were mostly positioned on the selling side, meaning their stop losses were placed above.
Whenever gold gives a strong move in one direction, it simply means liquidity has been hunted. And yesterday’s move was exactly that. I hope those who followed my analysis were able to capitalize well on the buying side.
Now, in my weekly analysis, I mentioned one important thing — gold would either move very aggressively upward or in such a way that most traders won’t be able to participate. At the same time, the market would keep giving sellers opportunities to build positions.
As long as gold is below $4800, sellers will continue to hold hope for a downside move.
Now, as you can see, today in the morning the market swept last week’s high and then showed a reversal. This indicates that those who were holding overnight positions from last Friday or selling from last week’s high — their stop losses have already been taken out.
But after sweeping liquidity, the market showed a decent reversal, and many sellers again entered the market expecting a good downside move. However, I believe that won’t happen — and today again, sellers are likely to get trapped.
Here’s why 👇
After the liquidity sweep, we saw a one-sided fall during the Asian session. This attracted a lot of random sellers into the market — which is clearly visible in price action.
Also, as I mentioned earlier, a majority of sellers are still active around the $4772 area, and their stop losses are placed above — around $4779–$4787.
So until these sellers' stop losses are taken out and strong buyers enter at higher levels, I’m not expecting any major reversal or a big liquidity hunt on the buyers' side for now. That’s my view.
---
Today’s Expected Price Action 👇
Currently, gold is holding around $4708, and some early buyers may expect a reversal from here.
I believe we can see a minor upside move from this level — just enough to attract early buyers, making them think that gold will break the day’s high and give a strong bullish move like yesterday.
But in my view, even these early buyers will get trapped.
After a small upside move, gold can reverse again from the $4730–$4741 zone.
This will create two situations:
1. Sellers who entered from the top or Asian high will gain confidence
2. New sellers will enter thinking it's just a retracement
At the same time, early buyers will get stopped out, lose confidence, and may emotionally switch to selling.
That’s the trap.
---
My Plan for Today 👇
I’m planning to look for buying opportunities later in the day — around key support levels:
$4693 – $4683 – $4676
Preferably, I’ll wait for a bullish confirmation on the 15M–30M timeframe before entering.
Target zones:
$4763 – $4779 – $4787
---
Important Zones 👇
No-trade zone:
$4700 – $4730 (expect choppy price action here)
Safer buying setup:
If during the day, after all the buyer-seller battle, we get a strong 15M candle close above $4729, then you can comfortably look for buying opportunities targeting higher levels.
---
Final Thought 👇
Personally, I prefer trading later today because the current price action suggests the market will stay confusing and choppy, trapping both buyers and sellers before giving any clean directional move.
So stay patient.
---
I hope you liked this detailed and simple psychological market breakdown — and learned something valuable from it.
Good luck, trade safe, and I hope you have a profitable day 💰
---
By the way, what’s your view for today? Let me know in the comments 👇
X
Short 
