Long
READ THIS BEFORE YOU TAKE YOUR NEXT GOLD TRADEWhat if this breakout isn't the beginning of a new bull run, but the biggest trap of the week?
Tuesday played out almost exactly as I expected. Gold delivered a strong one-sided buying move and successfully broke above the $4045-$4062 decision zone, officially ending the bearish Lower High & Lower Low structure that had been in place since July 5th.
But does a Break of Structure really mean the bulls are now in control, or is the market simply attracting breakout buyers before making its next move?
Let's dive into today's market psychology and see what the market makers could be planning next.
On the 4H timeframe, I had already marked the bearish structure. Since July 5th, Gold had consistently been creating Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Because of that structure, most traders expected another Lower High followed by a continuation of the bearish trend this week.
However, from a psychological perspective, that scenario was becoming too obvious, which is exactly why I believed it was likely to fail.
As mentioned in my previous two analyses, I expected Gold to break one of the previous Lower Highs this week, and that's exactly what happened. The breakout above the previous Lower High officially confirmed a Break of Structure (BOS), ending the bearish sequence that had controlled the market for weeks.
After yesterday's continued upside movement, most sellers became trapped. Even today, sellers have been fighting aggressively, but every continuation move higher has trapped more and more short positions.
From my experience, this looks more like a stop-loss hunting phase than the beginning of a strong bullish trend.
As price continued moving higher without any meaningful pullbacks, the market forced sellers to cover their positions while simultaneously attracting random breakout buyers.
Since Gold has now broken both the previous Lower High around $4103 and the important psychological level of $4100, many traders entered long positions immediately without waiting for any retest or confirmation.
The question now is whether the market will reward those breakout buyers or use them as liquidity before making its next move.
For now, the $4083-$4103 zone remains the key support area.
As long as Gold continues holding above this zone and any retracement remains above it, I still prefer looking for buying opportunities.
However, my advice is simple.
Do not chase the market higher.
Gold has already produced an excellent one-sided rally since yesterday. Entering after such a strong move usually means becoming a late buyer, which significantly increases the risk of getting trapped during a pullback or consolidation.
Instead, wait patiently for a retracement into the key support zone. If buyers continue defending that area, buying opportunities become much more attractive.
My upside target remains the $4143-$4163 area.
I believe that just as Gold successfully broke above the previous Lower High near $4103, it will most likely also break above the second Lower High near $4138 to attract even more buyers into the market.
Before reaching that level, we may see a small selling move around $4138 or slightly below it to encourage fresh sellers to enter.
After trapping those sellers, the market could reverse higher once again, convincing everyone that buyers are fully in control and that every breakout should be bought.
This is exactly how market makers build liquidity.
However, the $4143-$4163 zone is a very important resistance area.
From there, I expect either a sharp downside move after trapping the late buyers or a deeper pullback toward the previous Lower High to fool price action traders into believing it's only a healthy retest before the market resumes selling.
That is the overall game plan I currently expect market makers to follow.
My trading plan for today is straightforward.
As long as Gold remains above $4103, I will look to capture small buying scalps whenever short-term selling pressure appears instead of chasing the rally.
Once price reaches my target zone of $4143-$4163, I will switch to a wait-and-watch approach.
Just like yesterday, when I expected consolidation around $4045-$4063 before planning my next trade, I will follow the same approach here. I'll wait for confirmation inside the $4143-$4163 zone before making my next decision because patience and confirmation are what create high-probability trades.
I hope today's psychological analysis gave you a logical understanding of what the market is doing behind the scenes and helped you learn something valuable.
As always, trade only after confirmation and maintain proper risk management so you can consistently protect your capital and maximize your profits.
Wishing everyone a profitable trading day.
What's your next view on Gold?
Let me know in the comments. I'd love to hear your perspective.
Long 
Breakout ongoing – will gold confirm bullish reversal?Gold enters the new trading week with the first encouraging technical signal after breaking slightly above the descending H4 trendline that has capped price action throughout the recent decline. Although the breakout is still modest, it suggests selling pressure is gradually weakening and buyers are beginning to regain control.
The broader market structure, however, has not fully shifted into a bullish trend. The 4040–4060 area remains the most important resistance, where the H4 descending trendline and previous supply converge. This will be the decisive zone to determine whether the current recovery is merely a corrective bounce or the beginning of a larger bullish reversal.
As long as gold continues holding above the breakout area and forms higher lows, the bullish recovery scenario remains favored. A confirmed break and sustained acceptance above 4040–4060 would likely attract fresh buying momentum and open the way toward the psychological 4100 resistance, where the market will face its next major technical test.
For the coming sessions, the preferred strategy is to buy on pullbacks while price remains above the newly broken trendline. Scalping opportunities can still be taken within the current range, but traders should be prepared to shift into breakout trading once resistance is cleared with strong momentum.
📍 Key Levels
🔹 3970 – 3990 Major support zone and preferred buying area.
🔹 4015 – 4045 Breakout support and H4 trendline retest zone.
🔹 4040 – 4060 Key resistance. A confirmed breakout would strengthen the bullish structure.
🔹 4090 – 4105 Primary upside target before reassessing higher-timeframe momentum.
✅ Preferred Scenario Gold holds above the broken descending trendline. Buyers defend the 4015–4045 support region. A breakout above 4040–4060 confirms bullish continuation. The next upside objective is the 4100 area. Failure to hold above the breakout structure would delay, but not immediately invalidate, the recovery outlook. Long 
Long 
21/07 H4 - GOLD BREAKS DOWNTREND – BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP?After several weeks of persistent selling pressure, Gold is finally showing the first meaningful signs of stabilization. The broader macro backdrop has not changed significantly, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance and the market still expecting interest rates to remain restrictive for some time. However, the absence of fresh bullish catalysts for the U.S. dollar has allowed Gold to recover from recent lows as profit-taking and short covering begin to emerge.
Rather than being driven by a major macro shift, the current rebound appears to reflect a change in short-term market positioning. This makes confirmation more important than anticipation, as institutional traders will likely wait for price to validate a new structure before committing to larger positions.
From a technical perspective, Gold has broken above the descending trendline that capped price action throughout the recent decline, marking the first technical improvement in weeks. Price is now approaching the previous Demand + Fibonacci resistance, which also aligns with the former ascending trendline around the 408x area. This confluence represents the market's next decision point. A successful retest followed by a confirmed break above 408x would suggest that buyers are regaining control and could open the way toward the 412x institutional resistance zone.
However, the breakout has yet to receive full confirmation. If buyers fail to defend the 401x support and price falls back below the breakout zone, the recent move would likely be classified as a false breakout, shifting focus back toward the lower liquidity zone.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold may continue its recovery after breaking the descending trendline. A successful retest above 401x, followed by a confirmed breakout through the 408x Demand + Fibonacci resistance, could expose the 412x supply zone as the next upside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If price loses the 401x support and falls back below the breakout area, the bullish breakout would likely fail. In that case, Gold could resume its broader bearish trend and revisit the lower demand zone around 394x–396x.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Neutral to Bullish
Preferred Strategy: Buy the Dip above 401x – Wait Confirmation above 408x.
Lucas Gay Trading Short 
Long 
READ THIS BEFORE YOU BUY OR SELL GOLD TODAY!> ⚠️ I believe 90% of Gold traders are about to make the same mistake today. The chart looks obvious, the trend looks clear, and that's exactly why I think the market is preparing a psychological trap. Before you buy or sell Gold, spend the next few minutes reading this analysis carefully. If my theory plays out, today's move won't just trap early sellers—it could completely confuse both buyers and sellers before the real trend resumes.
As per my Monday analysis, the exact plan of action we were expecting is what the market delivered. The structure I had drawn played out almost perfectly, and the upside movement I expected from the $3981 level happened as anticipated. I hope everyone had a great trading day yesterday.
Now let's talk about the plan for Tuesday. Make sure you read this psychological analysis carefully because it will not only help you understand what could happen next in Gold but also improve your overall market psychology and learning.
Gold has now formed a potential lower high around $4040. However, the most important question is whether this is a genuine lower high or simply another psychological trap. Let's break it down.
The bullish Monday that we expected played out mainly because of the 4H timeframe structure, which I discussed in my weekly analysis. Since 6th July, Gold has been following a very clean bearish market structure. If you look at the 4H chart, you can clearly see a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. So far, this structure remains completely intact. There has been no break of structure and no obvious bullish trap yet.
Because of this, most price action traders have naturally started selling after seeing the latest lower high. They are expecting the bearish trend to continue, which is a logical conclusion based on the current structure.
However, I believe the market will trap these sellers before continuing lower. Instead of dropping immediately, I think Gold will first create confusion among price action traders by giving the appearance of a bullish break of structure. This move would attract fresh buyers while forcing early sellers out of their positions. Once enough liquidity has been created, I expect Gold to resume its bearish trend with a sharp downside move.
So my plan is very simple. I want to see Monday's high get broken. I want the market to break above the most recent lower high within the bearish structure. That breakout would deliver the first shock to sellers while attracting aggressive buyers. After that, I expect some consolidation before a strong bearish decline, most likely during the later part of the US session or around the Asian session open tomorrow.
The overall trend is still bearish. There is absolutely no doubt about that. The only thing I am expecting before the next leg down is a psychological trap that forces confident sellers out of the market before the trend continues.
Now let's discuss my exact plan for Tuesday.
Monday's high was around $4040, and after today's Asian session opened, Gold faced resistance near $4036 before attempting a small pullback. In my opinion, this was simply the market's first attempt to invite more sellers during the Asian session. The structure still looks bearish, so many traders have already entered fresh sell positions with their stop losses placed above Monday's high.
Personally, I still expect one more upside move. I believe Gold could sweep Monday's high before reversing. After that sweep, I expect price to decline toward the $4014-$4017 zone. From there, I believe we could see strong buying interest throughout the day.
Why do I expect a sweep of Monday's high before the reversal?
Because the early sellers have already entered with stop losses above $4040. If Monday's high gets taken out, all of those stop losses will be triggered. Once they see the market reverse again, many of them will emotionally re-enter their sell positions, often with even larger position sizes to recover their previous losses. That creates even more liquidity for the market.
This is something we often see in Gold. After stop losses are hunted, traders jump back into the same direction, believing they are getting a better entry. Many even increase their risk, hoping to recover losses and catch a bigger move. But before their targets are reached, the market reverses again and traps them even more aggressively.
I believe something very similar could happen today.
If the market rejects Monday's high after sweeping it, price action traders will become even more confident in the bearish structure. They will see the rejection as confirmation and continue adding to their short positions. Most of them will likely target $4000 or even last week's low.
However, I don't think Tuesday will be a straightforward selling day. Instead, I believe the market will first create the psychological trap I explained above. Gold could spend most of the day moving higher, creating confusion for both buyers and sellers, before revealing its real bearish move once the majority of traders become trapped.
I hope you enjoyed today's psychological analysis and found the logic behind it useful. More importantly, I hope this analysis helped you understand how market psychology works behind price movement.
Trade wisely, manage your risk properly, and always prioritize good money management over chasing profits.
Good luck, everyone!
What's your view on Gold? Let me know in the comments.
Crude Oil:Why the Same News Makes Some Stocks Rise and some FallOverview
Here's something a lot of new traders miss: when crude oil prices move, it doesn't affect the stock market equally. In fact, the exact same crude oil news can be great news for one stock and terrible news for another, on the very same day. Let's break down why, in simple terms. The chart above shows Crude Oil Futures (MCX) itself, for reference — the infographic explains how equity stocks react to moves like these.
Why Does Crude Oil Even Matter to Indian Stocks?
India imports most of its crude oil from other countries. That single fact is the reason crude oil prices ripple through so much of our market. When oil prices move, the cost of doing business changes for a huge number of companies — just not all in the same direction.
The Two Sides of Crude Oil
Think of Indian companies as falling into two teams whenever crude oil price moves:
Team 1: Companies That Suffer When Oil Goes Up
These are companies that use crude oil or its by-products as a raw material or major cost.
Paint companies (crude is a key ingredient in paint)
Airlines (jet fuel is their biggest cost)
Tyre companies (rubber processing uses crude derivatives)
Logistics and transport companies (fuel costs eat into margins)
For these companies, rising crude oil is bad news — their costs go up, and profits often come down.
Team 2: Companies That Benefit When Oil Goes Up
These are companies that produce oil and gas.
Oil exploration companies (they sell crude, so higher prices mean more revenue)
Government-owned oil exploration/production companies (same logic — they benefit when the crude they produce sells for more)
For these companies, rising crude oil is good news — they're selling the very thing that just became more valuable.
Here's the Interesting Twist
Now, notice something important: oil marketing companies (the government-owned ones that refine crude and sell petrol/diesel to us) are a special case. Even though they're technically "in the oil business," they don't always benefit when crude oil rises. Why? Because they can't always raise petrol/diesel prices at the pump fast enough to match their rising costs. So these companies can actually get squeezed on margins in the short term, even while pure oil producers are celebrating.
This is why it's not enough to just know "oil went up" — you need to know where a company sits in the whole chain: does it produce oil, refine it, or use it?
A Simple Way to Remember This
Ask yourself one question about any company: "Does rising crude oil raise this company's costs, or raise its revenue?"
Raises costs → likely to struggle when oil rises (Paint, Airlines, Tyres, Logistics)
Raises revenue → likely to benefit when oil rises (Oil exploration/production companies)
Somewhere in between → oil marketing/refining companies, where margins depend on how fast they can pass costs to customers
Why This Matters for Your Trading
The next time you see crude oil prices jump in the news, don't assume "the whole market will react the same way." Instead, ask which of your watchlist stocks belong to which team. This one habit can help you understand market reactions that might otherwise seem confusing or random.
Beginner's Lesson
Markets aren't one big machine that reacts the same way to every piece of news. Different companies have different relationships with the same raw material. Learning to spot these relationships — instead of assuming everything moves together — is one of the simplest ways to start thinking like an experienced trader.
Conclusion
Crude oil is a great example of how one single commodity can create very different stories across the stock market, all at once. Next time oil makes headlines, take a moment to think about who wins and who loses — it'll make market movements feel a lot less random.
The infographic and chart shown are for illustration and educational purposes only. This is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock or commodity. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. 
Education
XAUUSD — Sell the 4,020–4,030 RetestFundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and shifts in Fed rate expectations. Softer U.S. data could support a short-term recovery, but renewed dollar strength may keep the broader pressure tilted to the downside.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,004.55 below the marked 4,020–4,030 resistance zone. This area previously acted as support and may now become a sell zone after the breakdown. If price recovers into this region and fails to reclaim it, bearish continuation could target the strong support at 3,982.80 before extending toward the descending trendline near 3,925–3,930.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,004.55
Main sell zone: 4,020–4,030
Short-term support: 3,982.80
Short-term resistance: 4,020–4,030
Liquidity area: 4,090–4,108
Main target: 3,925–3,930
Invalidation: above 4,044.50
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,020–4,030
Stop Loss: 4,044.50
Take Profit 1: 3,982.80
Take Profit 2: 3,960
Take Profit 3: 3,925.80
Sell Condition
Wait for price to retest the 4,020–4,030 zone and show bearish rejection. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed reclaim, or 1H close back below the zone may confirm seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,044.50, the sell setup is no longer valid.
Overall View
The main bias remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below the former support zone and continues to respect the broader descending structure. The preferred plan is to wait for a recovery into 4,020–4,030 rather than chase price near current levels, with 3,982.80 as the first reaction area and 3,925.80 as the main downside target.
Do you also see 4,020–4,030 as the key sell zone, or are you waiting for a deeper liquidity sweep first? Short 
XAUUSD: Wave 5 bearish trend continues.Gold is still trading under short-term bearish pressure after failing to hold above the recovery trendline. From Kelly’s view, the current structure suggests that price may be preparing for another downside continuation, with wave 5 still open towards the lower Fibonacci target zones.
The key idea is simple: gold may retest resistance first, but the bearish structure remains valid while price stays below the sell zone.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold attempted to recover from the lower area, but the rebound lost strength near the 4,020–4,030 region. Price is now trading around 4,004 and reacting below the broken uptrend line.
This is important because the trendline that previously supported the recovery is now acting as a retest area. If gold cannot reclaim this line with strength, the current bounce may only be a correction before the next bearish leg continues.
The nearest sell-test area is around 4,005–4,012, while the stronger sell zone wave 4 sits near 4,020–4,030. As long as these zones hold, sellers still have the technical advantage.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,005–4,012: sell-test trendline zone
◌ 4,020–4,030: sell zone wave 4 and main resistance
◌ 4,004: current price reaction area
◌ 3,982: first buy scalping reaction level
◌ 3,959: next support checkpoint
◌ 3,938–3,945: Fibonacci 1.618 target area
◌ 3,855–3,865: possible wave 5 completion zone
◌ Above 4,030: area where the bearish setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave 1 started the downside move after the recovery failed.
Wave 2 created a short rebound but could not break the structure.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger selling pressure.
Wave 4 is now likely forming as a retest into the trendline and sell zone.
If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue towards 3,938–3,945 first, then 3,855–3,865 if momentum expands.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a bullish reversal yet. The market is still below the key resistance and the Elliott structure still supports one more downside leg.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to retest the sell-test trendline or the sell zone wave 4 and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,005–4,030 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,030
Take profit 1: 3,982
Take profit 2: 3,959
Take profit 3: 3,938–3,945
Take profit 4: 3,855–3,865 if wave 5 extends strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,030 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, price may move into a larger corrective recovery before the next direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is still a sell-the-retest structure. Gold has not fully reversed yet, and the current reaction is happening under the broken trendline and wave 4 resistance.
The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation near resistance, not chase price while it is already close to support.
Gold remains vulnerable below the sell zone.
If sellers defend 4,005–4,030, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci targets below.
Share your view below. Short 
GOLD: SELLERS TIRED?Where we closed: Gold finished the week at 4,017, down 103 points or 2.51%. That is the biggest weekly drop of this entire decline, and it is the first weekly close below 4,059 in four weeks.
Weekly COT (Positioning)
Positioning went quiet this week. Large specs are net long 194,246 contracts, up just 227. Commercials are net short 222,282, down 1,212. Small traders added 985. Open interest rose slightly to 371,776. In plain terms, almost nobody moved. After a week with CPI, PPI, and two days of Fed testimony, the big money barely changed its book. That is unusual and it tells you the professionals are waiting, not positioning.
Spec %OI sits at 52.2% and still reads STRETCHED. The crowd is heavily long. But the 156-week indices cool it down again: Spec Index 50.3 and Comm Index 47.1, both neutral, with retail at 47.9. The panel verdict is COT Setup NONE for the third week running. Positioning is crowded but not extreme. It gives no edge this week. The 6-week move shows specs +16.4 and commercials -14.6, so the drift is still specs buying into commercial selling, which is the same pattern that has been in place through the whole slide.
Weekly Charts
Intermarket got worse, not better. The weekly driver split is now Bull 0%, Neut 6%, Bear 94%, up from 88% two weeks ago. Real yields at 2.32% rising, dollar at 100.97 rising, breakevens falling, gold/silver rising to 71.9, miners underperforming, gold in euro terms at 3,512 and falling, gold versus stocks falling. The regime reads HEADWIND.
One change worth flagging: VIX has climbed to 18.8 from the 15 to 16 area it sat in all month. Rising fear can eventually bring a haven bid into gold. It is not doing that yet, but it is the first thing on that panel that could turn in gold's favor.
The forward 20-bar odds are 49.6%, a coin flip. July seasonality is neutral at +0.56% with a 41.5% hit rate.
Weekly structure and levels are the story. Price at 4,017 is now inside the weekly demand zone at 4,059 to 3,884, not sitting on top of it. For three straight weeks buyers pushed the wicks into that zone and closed back above 4,059. This week they failed. The upper boundary is gone.
That matters, but read it correctly. The zone is not broken. Price closed inside it, not below it. The line that actually breaks the floor is 3,884. Above, the next real supply is far away at 5,009 to 5,238, so there is plenty of room if buyers ever take control. Below 3,884, the next serious demand is the monthly zone at 3,453 to 3,281, and that is a wide gap of open air.
Daily
Structure stays bearish, last high a Lower High and last low a Lower Low. Resistance is 4,180, over 4% away. Support is 3,999, less than half a percent below.
But Friday closed up 1.02%, a strong green day, and it bounced right off the rising trendline. That line has now been touched nine times and it held again. This is the same line we have been watching all week, and it is doing its job.
The daily intermarket read is better than the weekly. Driver split improved to Bull 6%, Neut 15%, Bear 79%, which is the first bull reading on that panel in weeks. The dollar has gone flat at 100.71 instead of climbing. That is two small cracks in a wall that was 100% bearish on Wednesday.
The multi-timeframe box now shows 15m and 1H both bullish, with 4H, 1D, and 1W still bearish. Two green boxes, up from zero on Thursday. Short-term buyers are showing up.
The Hurst cycle is the loudest bullish signal on the board. The trough window reads OPEN NOW at 87% of cycle, with the next crest projected about 10 bars out. Last cycle was right-translated, amplitude is expanding, confluence is 70%. The timing model says a cycle low is landing right here, and Friday's bounce off the trendline is exactly what that would look like.
H4
Structure is bearish, resistance at 4,068 and support at 3,976, with price wedged between them.
The Wyckoff panel is the piece bears should not ignore. Bias reads ACCUMULATION, phase C test, with a Spring 20 bars back. The event log shows 2 springs and 0 upthrusts in this range. Springs are shakeouts below support that snap back, and they are what accumulation looks like from the inside. Zero upthrusts means sellers have not managed a single successful fake-out to the upside. Volume on the current bar is neutral at 0.9x, so no red flag either way.
The 4H range is 4,023 to 4,382 and price is just under the range low. Overhead, the supply stack starts immediately at 4,046 to 4,076, then 4,096 to 4,131, then 4,178 to 4,195, then the big daily supply at 4,236 to 4,363. Every rally has to chew through four layers of sellers.
Data For Next Week
This is the quiet part, and that changes the character of the week.
There is no tier-one US data next week. No CPI, no jobs report, no Fed decision. The heavy stuff all landed this past week and gold sold off through all of it. What is left is second-tier: jobless claims, flash PMIs, and housing numbers. None of those usually move gold more than a few dollars.
The next real anchor is the FOMC decision on Wednesday, July 29, which is the week after next. That means next week is a positioning week ahead of the Fed, not a reaction week.
Here is why that matters. With no headline to hide behind, price has to make its own decision at these levels. No data means the market trades structure, and structure is exactly what is coiled right now.
Bottom Line
Gold lost 4,059 on the weekly close for the first time in four weeks, and that is a genuine bearish mark. But it closed inside the demand zone, not below it, and it bounced off the nine-touch trendline on Friday. Both things are true.
The bear case is straightforward. Weekly macro is 94% bearish, structure is bearish on the weekly, daily and 4H, and the level that held three times finally gave way. Sellers earned that.
The bull case has quietly gotten stronger. The Hurst trough window is open now, the 4H shows accumulation with two springs and zero upthrusts, 15m and 1H have flipped bullish, the daily macro cracked from 100% bear to 79% with a 6% bull reading, the dollar went flat, and VIX is rising. That is five separate tells appearing in the same week.
The plan for the week: 3,884 is the whole trade. Hold it and the accumulation and cycle read get a chance to work, with the first real test at 4,068, then 4,131, then 4,180. Lose 3,884 on a weekly close and the zone is finished, and there is very little between there and 3,453.
For sellers, rallies into 4,046 to 4,076 remain the cleaner entries with the descending trendline overhead. For buyers, nothing is proven until 4,068 is reclaimed and held. Do not buy just because the level is pretty. Wait for the reclaim. XAUUSD: Facing Key ResistanceFollowing a recovery from the low near 3,960, XAUUSD is gradually moving up to test the downtrend line that has been in place since the beginning of the month. Notably, selling pressure emerges quickly whenever the price approaches this dynamic resistance level, creating a series of lower highs and reinforcing the bearish trend on the H4 timeframe. Current market structure suggests this is likely just a technical rebound rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Resistance around 4,049 lies just below the Ichimoku cloud, forming a confluence zone that sellers have strong grounds to defend. If the price shows signs of rejection in this area, bearish pressure could quickly return, dragging gold down to the 3,935 support level—a zone that has previously attracted buying interest.
From a fundamental perspective, gold remains under pressure as the US dollar and US bond yields hold at elevated levels following hawkish remarks from the Fed. The market continues to price in the likelihood of interest rates remaining high for longer, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Trading strategy: Prioritize selling around 4,049, with a target of 3,935. Short 
XAUUSD: Everything Depends on This TrendlinePrice is now pressing right against the upper boundary of a falling wedge, a level that has repeatedly rejected every recovery attempt over the past few sessions. This trendline isn't just another resistance, it's the line separating a potential reversal from another leg lower.
This is exactly where the market has to make a decision.
And here's the key part:
If buyers can finally break above this trendline with conviction, the entire structure changes. A confirmed breakout would signal that selling pressure is fading and could quickly open the path toward the 4,080 resistance area.
BUT... if sellers defend this trendline once again, everything changes.
Another rejection here would keep the falling wedge intact and increase the probability of price rotating back toward the lower boundary near 3,960. When a resistance has been respected this many times, failed breakouts often lead to sharp pullbacks.
So right now, the market is sitting at a turning point.
A decisive breakout followed by acceptance above the trendline would be the confirmation buyers need.
In short:
👉 Break above the wedge → bullish continuation toward 4,080
👉 Rejection from the trendline → bearish move back toward 3,960 Long 
SOMETHING BIG IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN IN GOLD... DON'T MISS THIS!Almost everyone believes gold has finally found its bottom after defending the $3942 low once again. Buyers are becoming more confident, social media is slowly turning bullish, and many traders have already carried long positions into the weekend expecting a fresh rally. But what if that's exactly what the market wants everyone to believe? What if this entire rebound is nothing more than a psychological trap before gold makes its next major move? Before placing your first trade this week, read this analysis carefully because what happens next could surprise most traders.
Over the previous week's close, gold showed a reversal just above this year's major low at $3942. As everyone has noticed, between June 24 and July 1, gold repeatedly found support around the $3840 to $3860 zone, and even last week it once again reversed from around $3960, keeping $3942 and below as the invalidation area. There is no doubt that buyers have been highly active around this region, and it's also likely that many traders carried long positions into the weekend.
However, the biggest question remains.
Is gold actually preparing for a genuine bullish reversal, or is another downside move still waiting?
Let's break down the psychology behind the market and understand what I expect for the upcoming week.
If you look at the 4-hour timeframe, you'll notice that the market is still following a very strong bearish structure, which I've highlighted with the black path. Price continues to respect a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, meaning the overall higher timeframe trend remains strongly bearish. Price action itself is telling us that sellers are still in control.
The real question is whether the market will simply continue making another lower high before dropping again, or whether it has one more psychological twist before resuming the downtrend.
Interestingly, over the past three consecutive weeks, every Monday has been bearish. Either we've seen gap-down openings or selling pressure immediately after the market opened, with Monday closing as a bearish session overall.
Because of this pattern, I believe many traders will aggressively look for sell positions as soon as the market opens this Monday.
But I don't think the market will immediately attack last week's low or the yearly low at $3942.
Instead, I believe the market will first play a psychological game.
My expectation is that the initial weakness after the open will simply be a liquidity grab designed to stop out everyone who carried long positions above $4000 into the weekend.
As we all know, $4000 is a major psychological level. Gold only managed to break above it near Friday's close, which naturally encouraged many traders to hold overnight or over the weekend expecting bullish continuation.
That is exactly why I think those buyers could become the first target when the market opens.
After trapping those weekend buyers, I expect gold to recover and turn bullish during Monday. The purpose of that move would be to shift retail sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Once traders start believing that $3942 has become a strong long-term bottom, more and more people will begin building swing buy positions with wider stop losses.
But personally, I don't believe those expectations will be fulfilled.
The higher timeframe trend is still bearish, and I think any bullish move will simply attract fresh liquidity before the next major leg lower.
If the market manages to break a recent lower high during the week, many breakout traders will jump into long positions. In my opinion, that breakout could become another trap.
Once enough buyers have entered, I expect the market to continue following its bearish structure and eventually break below $3942.
If that happens, my next downside targets remain around $3912 and eventually $3870.
That's currently my overall outlook for gold.
Another important factor is that the upcoming week is relatively clean, with no major red folder economic events scheduled. Because of that, I expect cleaner price action instead of the extreme manipulation and sharp volatility we experienced last Monday and Tuesday.
One technical level I'm watching very closely is $3980.
If we get a full 30 minute candle close below $3980, I believe downside momentum will strengthen significantly and could push gold directly toward the $3900 area.
Overall, I believe next week could provide some excellent short selling opportunities.
My plan is simple.
As long as price remains above $3980, I'll stay relatively neutral and mainly focus on scalp trades.
I won't chase large targets without confirmation.
I'll only become aggressive on swing shorts once the market confirms the bearish continuation.
I hope you enjoyed this week's psychological gold analysis and learned something valuable from it.
Good luck to everyone for the upcoming trading week. I genuinely hope it's a profitable one for all of you.
Stay disciplined, manage your risk properly, protect your capital, and let the market come to you instead of forcing trades.
Let's make this week count.
And finally, let me know your opinion.
What's your view on gold this week?
Drop your thoughts in the comments. I'd love to hear your perspective.
Gold Weekly Analysis [20 - 24 July, 2026]Probable Scenario Analysis and Trade Plan for Gold TVC:GOLD for the Week - 20 - 24 July, 2026.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
The price is not yet in the bullish zone. If the price sustains above 4050 and shows the promise of bullish continuation, then the first probable bullish targets would be 4100. Next, if the price sustains above 4100, then the probable bullish targets would be 4150 and 4200. There will be strong resistance at 4200. Next, if the price again sustains above 4200, then the probable bullish targets would be - 4250 and 4300. Lastly, keep the level 4100. If price remains above 4100, then look for only bullish trades in the week.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
The zone of (4000 - 3950) is a strong support zone. If the price breaks down below 3950, then the probable bearish targets would be - 3900, 3850, and 3800.
🟡 No Trading Zone (NTZ): (4050 - 3950)
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4200 - 4000).
Here, 4100 is the median of the ROC. The median works like an intraday sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Event
No high-impact event this week. One medium-impact event is the Euro Interest Rate Decision on 23rd July (Thursday). No holidays this week. Lastly, geopolitical issues are omnipresent.
● Intraday Bias
Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price. If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading! Short 
XAUUSD: Weekly bearish aims for final wave 5 zoneGold is still trading inside a broader bearish structure, and the weekly outlook continues to favor downside continuation. From Kelly’s view, the latest recovery looks more like a corrective rebound into resistance, while the main Elliott structure still suggests that wave 5 may extend lower.
The key idea is simple: as long as gold remains below the descending trendline and the sell wave B zone, the bearish weekly scenario stays active.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has been respecting a clear descending trendline, with repeated lower highs forming across the structure. Each recovery attempt has been capped under resistance, showing that buyers still lack strong control.
Price recently tested the lower support around 3,955–3,970 and bounced slightly, but the rebound is still weak. The nearest sell area is around 4,017–4,025, where the chart marks the sell wave B zone.
If gold retests this zone and fails to break above it, sellers may continue pushing price lower towards the final Elliott wave target near 3,845–3,855.
➤ Key levels
◌ 3,955–3,970: recent low and done test area
◌ 4,017–4,025: sell wave B zone and short-term resistance
◌ 4,050–4,075: higher resistance if the rebound expands
◌ 3,845–3,855: final wave 5 target area
◌ Above 4,075: area where the bearish weekly setup starts to weaken
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing the final bearish phase of a larger 5-wave decline.
Wave 1 started from the upper structure.
Wave 2 formed a corrective rebound but failed below trendline resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price lower with stronger bearish pressure.
Wave 4 may now be forming as a small recovery into the sell wave B zone.
If this resistance holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension area near 3,845–3,855.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current bounce as a full reversal yet. The market is still below the descending trendline, and the structure continues to favor sell reactions from resistance.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to retest the 4,017–4,025 sell zone and show bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: 4,017–4,025 if rejection appears
Stop loss: above the confirmed rejection high or above 4,075
Take profit 1: 3,955–3,970
Take profit 2: 3,900
Take profit 3: 3,845–3,855
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,075 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift into a larger corrective recovery before the next weekly direction becomes clear.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the weekly structure still favors selling the rebound. Gold has reacted from support, but the bounce remains corrective while price stays below the sell wave B zone and the descending trendline.
The cleaner plan is not to chase the low. Wait for price to retest resistance, then watch whether sellers defend the structure.
Gold may still have one more bearish leg ahead.
If the sell zone holds, the final wave 5 target remains open for next week.
Share your view below. Short 
Short 
WTI Crude: The Hormuz Premium Is BackWTI Crude Oil (4H) | Bias: Bullish while the war premium holds — but headline risk cuts both ways | Key driver: US–Iran conflict
The Setup
This chart tells one story: war. WTI round-tripped from the low-$80s in mid-June down to ~$68 by early July, then ripped back to ~$82 in about two weeks — a near-20-point round trip in five weeks, on a 4H chart that's basically been trading Strait of Hormuz headlines rather than fundamentals. The pullback in the middle of that recovery held almost exactly at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before buyers took control again. This is a geopolitical tape right now, not a technical one, and it needs to be read that way.
🔍 Technical Read
Structure: Sharp decline (~$82 → ~$68) into early July, followed by an impulsive V-recovery back to current levels near $81–82.
The key technical tell: the corrective pullback after the first bounce off the lows found support almost exactly at the 61.8% retracement (~$71), right inside the $70.60–$71.90 zone that's been defended more than once. Textbook trend-continuation behavior.
Current position: price is testing the recent swing high (~$83), right at the top of the post-recovery range.
Momentum: daily technical/moving-average models are flashing a "Strong Buy" read, consistent with the strength of this move.
What would change the picture: a clean break and close back below the $71–72 zone undoes the bullish structure and re-opens the $68–69 lows.
📰 Fundamental Backdrop
The war is the whole trade right now:
The conflict: The US–Iran war broke out February 28, 2026, and has flared, cooled, and flared again since. The current leg is acute, the US has struck Iran for six consecutive days (surveillance, air-defense, and logistics targets, including the Chah Bahar port surveillance tower), Iran has hit back at US-linked targets in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, and Washington has reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping.
Why WTI cares : roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne crude moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic through it has collapsed since the latest escalation, and that supply-disruption fear, not demand or inventories, is what's driving this chart.
The dip to $68 explained: in late June/early July, a partial de-escalation let Hormuz traffic start recovering, and oil fell back toward pre-war-resumption levels. OPEC+'s seven core members even used that calmer window to approve another 188,000 bpd output increase for August. Days later, the ceasefire collapsed and the rally back to $82 began.
OPEC+'s response is mostly symbolic. The group has raised output targets for five straight months, but Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, three of the seven core members — all rely on the Strait for exports. Raising quotas while the chokepoint is disrupted doesn't add real barrels to the market; it's positioning for whenever the strait normalizes.
No ceasefire in sight. Negotiations have stalled, and Washington has signaled talks aren't the near-term priority, with some reporting suggesting US operations could expand further.
🎯 Levels That Matter
Resistance / current test zone: $82 – $83
Bullish structure support: $71 – $72 (61.8% Fib + defended demand zone)
Invalidation for the bull case: sustained close below $71
Deeper support if that breaks: $68 – $69
📅 Catalyst Watch
This is a headline-risk market, not a data-calendar one:
Escalation risk (bullish for price): a confirmed tanker loss, a formal Hormuz closure attempt, or a strike on major energy infrastructure.
De-escalation risk (bearish for price): any credible ceasefire signal — we've already seen how fast that can send price back toward $68–69.
Weekly EIA inventory data is still on the calendar, but right now it's background noise next to the war headlines.
💭 My Take
Respect the trend while it's intact, the tape is bullish and the $71–72 zone has done its job twice now. But this isn't a "set and forget" trade. A single ceasefire headline erased a $14 rally once already this cycle, and it can do it again. Smaller size, wider stops, and a plan for both directions matter more here than picking a side.
Not financial advice. posted for discussion and educational purposes. Headline-driven markets move fast in both directions; manage risk accordingly.
Long 
XAUUSD — Bearish Continuation Toward Fibonacci Target
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains sensitive to USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data. For next week, the technical bias still leans bearish while price stays below the major descending structure.
Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,017 after losing momentum under the downtrend trendline. The nearest sell reaction zone is around 4,050 - 4,070, where price may retest the Fibonacci sell area before another downside move. If this zone rejects price, sellers may continue to push gold toward the lower Fibonacci psychological target around 3,755. A stronger recovery toward 4,203 or 4,300 - 4,384 would only be a deeper bearish retest unless price breaks the major downtrend.
Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,017
Nearest sell zone: 4,050 - 4,070
Strong resistance: 4,203
Fibonacci liquidity zone: 4,290 - 4,310
Major Fibonacci sell zone: 4,380 - 4,384
Main downside target: 3,755 - 3,740
Invalidation: above 4,203
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,050 - 4,070
Stop Loss: 4,203
Take Profit 1: 3,950
Take Profit 2: 3,850
Take Profit 3: 3,755 - 3,740
Sell Condition
Wait for gold to recover into the 4,050 - 4,070 Fibonacci sell zone and show bearish rejection. A failed reclaim, long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, or close back below the zone would confirm seller pressure. If price breaks below the recent low, the bearish continuation setup becomes stronger. If gold breaks and holds above 4,203, this sell setup should be invalidated.
Overall View
The main view for next week remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below the downtrend structure. A short-term recovery can happen, but the preferred plan is to wait for price to retest the Fibonacci sell zone before looking for continuation toward the 3,755 - 3,740 target area.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold for next week, or are you waiting for a deeper retest near 4,203 first?
Short 
Gold under pressure: Is 38XX next?The new trading week begins with little change in the broader macro narrative. Last week's softer U.S. inflation data failed to trigger a sustained rally in Gold, reinforcing the view that institutional investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve's cautious stance rather than a single round of economic releases. Fed officials continue to emphasize that inflation has not yet been fully contained, keeping expectations for restrictive monetary policy largely intact. As long as U.S. yields remain relatively firm and the dollar avoids a deeper correction, Gold is likely to struggle in establishing a meaningful recovery.
With the major inflation reports now behind the market, attention shifts toward upcoming Fed communication and broader risk sentiment. The absence of a fresh bullish catalyst leaves Gold increasingly dependent on technical structure, where sellers continue to hold the upper hand.
From a technical perspective, Gold continues to respect its broader daily bearish trend, printing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows beneath the long-term descending trendline. Recent rebounds have repeatedly failed near the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance cluster, confirming that institutional sellers are still defending premium pricing. Although the 390x support zone has generated buying interest, price has yet to produce any meaningful Break of Structure (BOS) that would suggest a trend reversal.
As long as Gold remains below the descending trendline and key resistance, the current recovery should continue to be viewed as corrective. If selling pressure extends through the 390x support, the next major liquidity objective could emerge around the 38xx demand zone, where longer-term buyers may begin reassessing value.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
Gold could continue trading within the prevailing bearish structure. Failure to reclaim the Demand + Fibonacci 0.50–0.618 resistance may expose the 390x support to another test. A confirmed daily break below this area would likely extend the decline toward the 38xx liquidity zone.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed daily close above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would be the first indication that the broader downtrend is losing strength and that a deeper corrective recovery may develop.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
Lucas Gray Trading Short 
